In case you need it (you likely don't) but here is some more evidence of the disaster for #exporting that is #Brexit implementation...

Hilariously, the only way you can get UK export figures to be above what they were at the time of the #EUReferendum is by including 'precious metals'....

So the UK *really* is selling the family silver to keep afloat!

Large swings in support for #RejoinEU? This is nothing new: support for #Brexit collapsed quickly after the #EUReferendum.

Biggest drops in Leave support are driven by places where the #austerity induced #ProtestVote was highest..
My paper from 2018: http://tinyurl.com/45bz4tz8

Fact 5: Support for #Brexit collapsed nearly immediately after the EU referendum.

The protest vote part behind #Brexit, which is the vote that really matters, though, swung well behind collapsed in a very predictable fashion almost immediately after the #EUReferendum

I wrote a paper about this: Who is NOT voting for #Brexit anymore...

https://tinyurl.com/45bz4tz8

The biggest declines in #Brexit support were coming from the places where the #ProtestVote was highest... not surprisingly.

Now there is many ways to characterise these protest voters. I do a ton of that in my work on #austerity. But these two graphs point out the most ridiculous #Brexit voters (who probably feel a ton of shame).

This is a tricky one to explain so feedback is appreciated. This is coming from a set of #Tweets from 2019 and uses data from the #BritishElectionStudy (see here https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1092043111604387841?s=20&t=ffHujApr9L2glhTgYynAxQ).

The #BES asked people prior to the #EUreferendum what do they think is the chance #Leave will win.

Fact 1: Without #austerity and without #FPTP, there would not have been an #EUReferendum to begin with.

Right wing commentators or right leaning political scientists have been attempting to dismiss my work, pushing distracting narratives. The key constituency that drove the #EUReferendum in favor of #Leave was a protest vote - and #austerity induced dislocations were the main driver of that vote.

I summarize my work in this thread https://econtwitter.net/@fetzert/109348821390260124.

Now...

My research shows and quantifies that had it not been for #austerity, the #EUReferendum would unlikely to have yielded an victory for #Leave. A lot of #Leave voting - between 3-9 percentage points was #protestvoting.

In subsequent work this interpretation was confirmed e.g. in
"Who is not voting for #Brexit anymore?" which is joint work with my student Eleonora Alabrese (who is on the job market this year)
bit.ly/3GiLgrH

The narrative around the #EUReferendum has been a very confusing one..

In the paper, I use individual-level panel data and data on all electoral contests in the UK to document that places and people more exposed to #austerity were more likely to vote #UKIP or express views associated with #protestvoting.

This was a perceived threat to the #Conservatives as it involved numerous defections resulting in the #Tories internal struggles to arise.

Due to the loud voices in the Tory party, this resulted in the demand for an #EUReferendum to become louder....

Did #austerity cause #Brexit? In the past weeks there was much talk in the UK on a return of #austerity. I am a Prof of Economics at Warwick University and I wrote a paper in 2018 that shows how #austerity was instrumental to bringing about #Brexit. This is a means of #introduction on here.

Open Access ➡️ https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181164

The paper shows that #austerity was a pivotal driver of #Brexit result. But that is only half the story: most likely there wouldnt have been an #EUReferendum ...

...systematically what are the #correlates of #Brexit.

The main finding is that the level of the support for #Brexit in the #EUreferendum is best explained by slow moving structural fundamental factors such as #demographics, economic #structure etc., & not #immigration or any other time-varying economic shocks.

But obviously, economic shocks interact with those fundamentals.
But an analysis that looks at a single point in time is not suitable to study the impact that those had. Now the...

...systematically what are the #correlates of #Brexit.

The main finding is that the level of the support for #Brexit in the #EUreferendum is best explained by slow moving structural fundamental factors such as #demographics, economic #structure etc., & not #immigration or any other time-varying economic shocks.

But obviously, economic shocks interact with those fundamentals.
But an analysis that looks at a single point in time is not suitable to study the impact that those had. Now the...

I am a Prof of #Economics at University of Warwick. I am going to talk about a paper on #Brexit as a means of an #introduction. Almost on the same day of the #EUReferendum I started working on that:

"Who Voted for #Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis"

➡️ #Openaccess https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eix012

This was a descriptive paper that makes no claims of #causality. It simply asks whether, based on where you live, we can infer whether and how one voted. In doing so we just characterise...