@agmcleod The analysis from @erictopol is IMO spot on. I really appreciate him posting here.

My thoughts on the #nextWave risk equation:

The "strong" vs "mild" variant narrative is a (deliberate) unfactual red herring & the wrong way to think about the problem.

Its not about the "strength" of the #sarscov2 variant. Its about how the viral attack threat is positioned relative to the defensive mitigations & infection event outcomes.

What's the risk profile from the XBB subvariant EG.5.1 ("Eris")?

On the attack plus side:
- EG.5.1 is more immune protection evasive (yet again) due to mutation
- EG.5.1 continues #SARS2 relentless climb up the #ACE2 binding affinity slope due to mutation
- transmission is a free fire zone, continuing the massive mutational hill-climbing opportunity for #SARS2 with no end in sight

On the defensive minus side:
- Omicron (re-)infection protection is lower than original/Delta
- vax antibody infection protection rolls off by 6 months (arguably 3-4 months)
- Vax boosters have been trailing variant evolution instead of matching
- next booster appears delayed, reason unknown
- Population uptake on boosters is decreasing
- Population non-vax mitigations are essentially zero
- the minimizer disinfo "its just a cold/flu" has solid mainstream traction

On the event effects side:
- #COVID19 acute infection effect is ludicrously probabilistic, with a wide variability of impact as a result
- outcome events post-acute infection appear significant even with "mild" symptoms
- reinfection compounds acute & long term risk
- #LongCovid long term events continue as a notable outcome for each reinfection round

It's an iterative compounding crap shoot where you will land for any given infection wave.

So the attack side is improving, the defensive side is weakening & the event effects seems to be holding.

The vax & relax single point of mitigation is continuing its erosion as a result.

And the wave momentum is rebuilding...

Eris is trending up as dominant variant across the globe.

UK & US already see an uptick in hospitalization signalling a new wave is starting. Eris is trending up.

Ontario tends to follow UK with a 4-6 week delay. Eris proportion is currently increasing.

Reach for the Top continues...

#Immune #Escape vs #ACE2 #Binding (relative to BA2) - USA 15 Day Trends by @tRAJectory

Very interesting article about #muscle acidosis and #LongCOVID: https://mastodon.nl/@vickyvdtogt/110196805189572082

@vickyvdtogt
There is no direct evidence but since muscle satellite cells are involved in regenerating muscles, I would have a look at these adult stem cells expressing #ACE2 receptor:
https://www.jbc.org/article/S0021-9258(20)48455-8/fulltext

Slide 12, Quest of the Virosols

ACE2 is the cell entry receptor that binds with SARS-CoV-2 and helps it to invade the cells.

Viruses need the cell entry receptors to enter the cell and initiate new infections.

Source: http://aerosol.nsysu.edu.tw/en/scopes/108

#COVIDisAirborne #COVIDisNOTover #COVIDisOngoing #SARSCoV2 #COVID #SARS2 #ACE2

Predicted #Immune Escape and #ACE2 binding of top #variant lineages in USA (relative to BA.2)

XBB is playing Reach for the Top.

May the Best Variant Win.

h/t @tRAJectory

#SARS2 #sarscov2 #COVID19

New mouse models with humanized #ACE2 enable dissection of #COVID19 pathogenesis mechanisms in vivo, revealing absolute & cell-autonomous requirement of ACE2 for #SARSCoV2 infection in the olfactory epithelium, brain & lung #PLOSBiology https://plos.io/3RHLPPz

The domain of stem cells research is so destroyed by fraud (aka very small embryonic like stem cells) and commercial studies (with miraculous therapies) that there are close to no studies with in vivo stem cells and #SARS2
One fact we know for sure: hematopoietic stem cells, allowing the production of every blood cells, including immune system cells, express #ACE2

New mouse models with humanized #ACE2 enable dissection of #COVID19 pathogenesis mechanisms in vivo, revealing absolute & cell-autonomous requirement of ACE2 for #SARSCoV2 infection in the olfactory epithelium, brain & lung #PLOSBiology https://plos.io/3RHLPPz

New mouse models with humanized #ACE2 enable dissection of #COVID19 pathogenesis mechanisms in vivo, revealing absolute & cell-autonomous requirement of ACE2 for #SARSCoV2 infection in the olfactory epithelium, brain & lung #PLOSBiology https://plos.io/3RHLPPz

This is one of the pieces of data I watch carefully for #COVID19 #risk assessment.

This graph shows the "hill climbing" evolutionary process that #SARS2 is engaged in.

#SARS2 is doing quite well, thank you very much.

It is useful to zoom back out & plot the trend line, which is a linear increase over time in both #immunity evasion & #ACE2 binding strength. The march upwards & to the right continues apace.

The trend line leads nowhere good.

1) Are Hemopoietic Stem Cells an infinite source of new cells of immune stem cells through all the life?
2) Is the pool of these stem cells normally paused (quiescent) not getting exhausted with #COVID reinfections?
3) Is this pool of stem cells, expressing #ACE2 receptor likely to produce platelets, lymphocytes, monocytes and other immune system cells in the same proportions?
4) Is it a good thing that 99% of the studies of these stem cells with #SARS2 are dedicated to unaffordable treatments?

tokumeiAsan RT @PROJECT_ACES: ACE COMBAT シリーズの音楽特別企画「ACE COMBAT Special Program: Music Beyond the Sky」の第二弾、「ACE COMBAT 2」より「Fire Youngman」をACE COMBAT Channelにて只今公開！ お見逃しなく！
▼URL
https://t.co/w7TUEKrRC1
#ACECOMBAT2 #ACE2 #エースコンバット https://t.co/OiGepz05dz https://twitter.com/tokumeiAsan/status/1612775946393878533

“Despite the structural similarities between the #SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 S proteins, the current study reported vast differences in how these viral proteins bind to and interact with the human #ACE2 receptor. One of the key observations … is the attractive forces that exist between the SARS-CoV-2 #RBD and ACE2 as a result of the negative charge of the ACE2 binding surface as compared to the positively charged SARS-CoV-2 RBD.”

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20221211/SARS-CoV-1-and-SARS-CoV-2-spike-proteins-utilize-different-mechanisms-to-bind-to-ACE2.aspx

#SARS2

@novid

Oh look, other bat virii bind to #ACE2 receptors.

Yes, just like #sarscov2

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05513-3

@ZeroCovidColin
We need to #educate people
#telomere #acceleratedAging #telomereShortening #EndothelialDamage

#TheTelomereEffect is taking me longer to get through than I anticipated, since I’m trying this new method of listening to 4 books, randomly switching depending on #mood but I think everyone should #read or #listen to it

#Aging badly doesn’t need to happen for one, but it might help people understand #WhyYouDoNotWantCovid #CovidIsNotACold
#ACE2 #LongCovid #bloodClots #BringBackMasks

@JUSTIN
I’m going to need to watch this #lifecycle #SARS2 a #bagillion more times until I fully #understand it (along with a #biology #book in hand..)

But this IS the #bestVideo & worth 7 minutes of one’s #time even if just once #gist #holyShit 👀👀👀

#CovidIsNotOver #CovidDestroys #EndothelialDamage #aging #telomeres #rna #mrna #cells #ACE2
#please #WearADamnGoodMask #reinfection #SuddenDeath #whatever it is #NotWorthIt
#PrettyButDeadly #NoThankYou #Cilia #BadMicrobes

https://nitter.it/1goodtern/status/1595309141131759622?s=46&t=UvjnBQdFERsYoQ0wTTCEaQ
don’t like linking from the #birdapp #particularly b/c they’re holding my data #hostage & I wish I would wake up one day and become an #ENTJ instead of the #ENTP that I am b/c annoyingly waited until the last hours to do it & now it’s #temporarilyUnavailable #rant

But there’s some good links here but don’t #FallIntoRabbitHole :deadbirb:
#apoptosis #ACE2 #neuroscience #readings #BrainHealth #alzheimers #stroke #dementia
#CovidIsNotOver #WearARespiraror
@1goodtern

https://twitter.com/1goodtern/status/1595309141131759622?s=46&t=UvjnBQdFERsYoQ0wTTCEaQ
don’t like linking from the #birdapp #particularly b/c they’re holding my data #hostage & I wish I would wake up one day and become an #ENTJ instead of the #ENTP that I am b/c annoyingly waited until the last hours to do it & now it’s #temporarilyUnavailable #rant

But there’s some good links here but don’t #FallIntoRabbitHole :deadbirb:
#apoptosis #ACE2 #neuroscience #readings #BrainHealth #alzheimers #stroke #dementia
#CovidIsNotOver #WearARespiraror
@1goodtern

https://twitter.com/1goodtern/status/1595309141131759622?s=46&t=UvjnBQdFERsYoQ0wTTCEaQ
don’t like linking from the #birdapp #particularly b/c they’re holding my data #hostage & I wish I would wake up one day and become an #ENTJ instead of the #ENTP b/c I annoyingly waited until the last hours to do it & now it’s #temporarilyUnavailable #rant

But there’s some good links here, but don’t #FallIntoRabbitHole :deadbirb:
#apoptosis #ACE2 #neuroscience #readings #BrainHealth #alzheimers #stroke #dementia
#CovidIsNotOver #WearARespiraror
@1goodtern

RT @BergheimJeff@twitter.com

Noch einmal von vorne (einfache Sprache). #SARSCoV2 muss in die Zellen kommen, um vermehrt zu werden. Dazu nutzt das Virus den Rezeptor #ACE2 als Eintrittspforte. Dieser Rezeptor wird in unterschiedlichen Geweben gebildet. Viele Zellen haben diesen Rezeptor auf ihrer Oberfläche.

🐦🔗: https://twitter.com/BergheimJeff/status/1590013118767583232