This article is great. Name checks the #LongNow Foundation as well as #cliodynamics (better known to #Asimov #Foundation fans as #psychohistory

https://www.wired.com/2013/01/forget-big-data-think-long-data/

@seldoncrisis Sounds interesting... have you read any of #PeterTurchin 's work? #cliodynamics

"While we know that population busts in early farming societies were a frequent occurrence, we don’t yet know whether such cycles were universal, or whether there were periods and places when population levels stabilized for long periods of time."
#PopulationDynamics #History #Cliodynamics
https://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/the-collapse-of-simple-societies/

via @qcoding :: "To help make connections: name 5-7 things that interest you, but aren't in your profile, as tags so they are searchable. Then, boost this post or repeat its instructions so others know to do the same."

#PaperRPGs
#SFF
#QualityOfLife
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#Shooting
#Cliodynamics

@gasull

Stupid opinion since I haven’t read the article, but from the outside the case for #cliodynamics looks to me as weak as the case for #technicalanalysis: systems so complex and rare as the History of countries and the price of stocks can’t be “predicted” by looking at past trends and patterns. Perhaps if we had had already millions of years of History, millions of nations with good written records, and millions of traded companies over the same long period of time — perhaps then some reliable patterns might emerge. And I’m still doubtful, given what little I know about #chaostheory.

(Just a hunch; epistemological confidence: low :)

@keithzg @cnkraeh @pegobry@mstdn.foxfam.club There are certain types of regime which are worse, and there are certain types which are better, but there is (alas) no type of regime which prevents governments administered by humans from making mistakes or committing evil.

I wonder if some sort of quantitative comparison could be performed, à la #cliodynamics ?

History is driven by surprising events, forecasting is driven by predictable ones.

To this I amend "as practiced". Approaches such as #PeterTurchin's #Cliodynamics or #DavidChristian's #BigHistory, along with other forms of #Systems, #Complexity, #Evolutionary, and #Information based approaches suggest that there may be lenses through which both the past and future become clearer.

I'd suggest that this observation might be most useful for identifying potentially poorly considered history and forecasting practices.

20/end/