I'm curious: What have the panglossians such as Stephen Pinker had to say about the Russo-Ukranian war and all that jazz?

#StevenPinker #Pangloss #Cornucopians #Ukraine #War

@kensanata If the Majykalll Growth Faerie doesn't less us all with eternal growing abundance (and the Djinn of the Third Law lurks forever in the ever-darkening shadows), then ... There Will Be Problems.

Cowan wants a Pareto-optimal solution: Improve B's lot without requiring a sacrifice from A.

He's not the only person who does this, and Libertarian-leaning Mercatus Centre economists are hardly the only advocates of this. AOC makes the same appeal against zero-sum thinking at the end of this SXSW appearance: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JU-SE5eNt04 (it's the final answer in the Q&A).

But if we can't get eternal growth, if this is as good as it gets (or within a reasonable approximation close to it), then the choices get a lot harder, and a lot of people will make sacrifices.

Justice will also likely be limited.

#LimitsToGrowth #Cornucopianism #Cornucopians #Podcasts #EzraKlein #TylerCowan #AOC #AlexandriaOcasioCortez

/end/

@kensanata There's also the point where Cowan argues that even a small change in growth percentages has a huge outcome in an exponential function.

The problem with that line of thinking to me is:

• It assumes growth, and assumes unlimited growth. You cannot have an unlimited exponential function without unlimited growth.

• It's an appeal to consequence. "Growth is good" and "no growth is bad" do not prove "growth is inevitable".

• If the growth function is not exponential, if growht is limited, and if the appropriate mathematical model is, say, a logistic curve, then a change in rate of growth does not change the long-run level of attainment. It changes how long it takes for that level to be reached. It may also change how easy or hard it is to change course if the trajectory turns out to be unsustainable and subject to complex effects: feedback, lags, or interactions.

#TylerCowan #EzraKlein #Podcasts #Cornucopians #Cornucopianism #LimitsToGrowth

@kensanata Cowan's key comment is here, though there are nearly 90 references to "growth" in the transcript:

EZRA KLEIN: So, like a lot of liberals, I worry a lot about climate change. I worry a lot about poverty. I worry about more people having good health care. Why should I worry directly about economic growth?

TYLER COWEN: I think of economic growth as one good way to address all of those concerns. So for instance, take poverty. The societies that have partly fixed their poverty problems are those that have seen high rates of economic growth: Japan, South Korea, to some extent China, Singapore, earlier Hong Kong, the United States. There’s not a way to fix poverty that does not center around economic growth.

#LimitsToGrowth #Cornucopianism #Cornucopians #Podcasts #EzraKlein #TylerCowan

@kensanata Short of it is I don't see current thinking really heading the right way.

Tyler Cowan's bald assertion that they only way to solve inequality is by even more growth ... spanks very wrong.

See his recent appearance on the Ezra Klein podcast:

Tyler Cowen on the Great Stagnation’s End. Episode: https://www.podcastrepublic.net/episode/31239925869.
Media: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/chrt.fm/track/8DB4DB/pdst.fm/e/nyt.simplecastaudio.com/3026b665-46df-4d18-98e9-d1ce16bbb1df/episodes/1f9721e3-bf75-41a4-8fee-9eccda0ac166/audio/128/default.mp3

Transcript:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/10/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-tyler-cowen.html

#TylerCowan #EzraKlein #Podcasts #Cornucopians #Cornucopianism #LimitsToGrowth