History is driven by surprising events, forecasting is driven by predictable ones.

To this I amend "as practiced". Approaches such as #PeterTurchin's #Cliodynamics or #DavidChristian's #BigHistory, along with other forms of #Systems, #Complexity, #Evolutionary, and #Information based approaches suggest that there may be lenses through which both the past and future become clearer.

I'd suggest that this observation might be most useful for identifying potentially poorly considered history and forecasting practices.

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