@matthias_weber
None of that is very present here, but det.social is stable an fast.

#server #mastodon #Ukraine #economics #econtwitter #finance #academia #policy

"Don’t be overly fooled by seemingly rosy #jobs data heading into the #LaborDay weekend"

An economist parses the numbers and finds signs the US economy is slowing down
https://theconversation.com/jobs-are-up-wages-less-so-and-lower-purchasing-power-could-still-lead-the-us-into-a-recession-212678

@economics #EconTwitter

Would SpaceX's vertical integration+monopoly pricing be considered "vertical foreclosure"? I'm genuinely unsure (natural monopoly + Starlink wasn't a merger lead me to think not but idk). Any IO folks know? @cameron you're an IO person now right?

#EconTwitter #antitrust

Context: https://akhilrao.substack.com/p/faqs-starship-starlink-and-some-spacex/comments

Observation I'm noting down before I forget it. Thinking about #globalheating as an externality points you in the direction of carbon pricing/emissions permits. Thinking about the atmosphere as a global public good points you in the direction of public investment in clean energy #econtwitter

I've been making this point a lot recently, thinking it was original, but @delong posted it more than a year ago. The accelerationist model of inflation from which the NAIRU is derived works only for the 1970s.

Earlier inflations in the 1950s, and the current #inflation don't fit the model at all well, in either US or Australia.

Pre-NAIRU Keynesian understanding of the Phillips curve saw strong aggregate demand as driving both lower unemployment and higher inflation.
In #NAIRU model, transmission mechanism is from (low) unemployment to wages to prices.

https://open.substack.com/pub/braddelong/p/hoisted-from-e-archives-six-episodes?r=254ji5&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

#econtwitter

Appeal of the NAIRU model rests almost entirely on a single episode*, the acceleration of inflation from late 1960s to mid-1970s.

Since then, there have been a series of disappointments - failure of rational expectations, hysteresis in unemployment, unexplained changes in estimated NAIRU. Pandemic episode of acceleration and deceleration a complete failure.

* Oz fans point to a brief acceleration in 2008, brought to a halt by GFC, but this is pretty thin stuff. #econtwitter

Inflation is decelerating everywhere. So, if you believe the NAIRU model, unemployment is above NAIRU. Have any NAIRU supporters drawn this conclusion? #econtwitter

Lots of recent claims that US had massively higher growth than EU since GFC. But it turns out (h/t Krugman) that the key claims were based on exchange-rate conversions rather than PPP. This kind of argument was discredited 40 years ago, with Japan being seen as super-rich due to appreciation of yen. #econtwitter

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/20/opinion/american-economny-europe-triumphalism.html

I'm (very slowly) building a training dataset for an "econ tutor/assistant" LLM for researchers and students. Top capability I want to get dialed in is Stata translations to R/Python, followed by intermediate theory guidance

What are some other specific things y'all think might be useful for students? #econtwitter

Please boost for input 🙏

RT Nives DellaValle 🇪🇺
📣New PoliSpill @EU_ScienceHub Policy brief
Through an online econ experiment with 4000+ ppl, we unveil the power of combining norm #nudges and incentives in promoting #proenvironmentalbehaviour. #climatechange #behaviouraleconomics #econtwitter
@HendirkB
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134018

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/NivesDellaValle/status/1679864490626514945

"How can rationally inattentive (RI) agents choose the information strategies optimally when they are cognitively limited? We consider RI to be an “as-
if model” or a benchmark that
applies well in repeated choice situations, or in choices over the long term." Mackowiak et al, JEL
Reminiscent of Friedman's billiard's player and (for me, at least) not in a good way. All the interesting questions subsumed by the "long term" #econtwitter

RT Alvaro Ortiz | @BBVAResearch & @IEbusiness
Another “NBER Summer Institute 23” Interesting Research on Central Banks Balance Sheets & Crisis by @nfergus-@MartinKornejew-P. Schmelzing-@MSchularick (thread🧵)👇@lugaricano @MarkusEconomist @BIS_org @R2Rsquared @GitaGopinath @jasonfurman #EconTwitter @CavaliereGiu @IMFNews https://t.co/WLdQqqAGTE

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/alvaroortiz1968/status/1679852664455036928

A simple monetarist explanation of recent #inflation in the US. (and I think elsewhere)
1. Big expansion in M2 during lockdown
2. Sharp drop in velocity since people couldn't spend
3. Inflation + real growth has almost returned M2 velocity to pre-crisis trend
4. Monetary policy has been tight in terms of nominal interest rates, but real rates have fallen. Not much net effect
5. Can tell similar story in Old Keynesian terms
6. NAIRU models useless here
#econtwitter

Appointment of Bullock as RBA Governor reaffirms #Labor's commitment to #NAIRU model, inlcuding need for unemployment above NAIRU to keep inflation down.
Labor has abandoned Full Employment, or redefined it out of existence. #econtwitter

But #RMITFactlab declined to list Albanese's commitment to a Full Employment Summit and White Paper as a promise, let alone assess whether it has been broken.

Team Transitory scores an extra time win on inflation, except in UK. A necessary once off increase in the price level to absorb excess liquidity from necessary and successful lockdown stimulus.

Inflation amplified by market power.

Supply shocks a secondary factor.

#econtwitter

I have a review of the PC Productivity Review in the latest issue of the Journal of Australian Political Economy #econtwitter
https://www.ppesydney.net/jape-issues/issue-91-winter-2023/

Taking huge risks with the real economy and unemployment to pursue a 2 per cent inflation goal with no theoretical rationale and a history of generating financial instability, plus regular resort to QE #econtwitter

either you think 50% of young adults are failures in a fair system or that the system is the failure
#CapitalismIsKillingYOU #StrikeReady2024

Only 28% of #millennials (ages 27-42) & #GenZ (ages 18-26) answered “not at all” when asked if they still relied on their parents for financial support, according to a recent study from credit agency Experian. And more than half said they were “somewhat or very” dependent on money from their families
#economy #EconTwitter #econ
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-27/money-from-mom-and-dad-millennials-and-gen-z-reliant-on-families-for-support?utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-billionaires&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=billionaires&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&leadSource=uverify%20wall

East Asia’s low welfare
spending model fails
to tackle inequality . As elsewhere, unequal outcomes in one generation mean unequal opportunities for the next #econtwitter

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/east-asia-s-low-welfare-spending-model-fails-tackle-inequality

During the inflation of the late 1970s, everyone followed M3 obsessively. I haven't seen it mentioned at all this time around, but RBA still publishes the stats. Unsurprisingly, grew fast in lockdowns (12 %) now slowing down a lot. #econtwitter.