The prediction for #EternalSeptember *naively* extrapolated through to 31 Dec 2022 has dropped slightly - we now "only" expect about 20 to 36 million new people per day by 31 Dec.

Data: extracted daily from https://bitcoinhackers.org/@mastodonusercount at around 20:00 UTC

#FediverseGrowth #OpenScience

Source code (GPL-2+): https://codeberg.org/boud/fedistats_naive

#FediverseGrowth is going to keep accelerating:

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63534240

Interesting: the journalist joined a commercially supported instance: https://mastodonapp.uk/about/more - two small(?) tech firms get indirect publicity as they host/fund the instance.

If ~90% of current birdsite users stick to the #TyrannyOfConvenience, then the flood could grow to 10% or so of (former) birdsite user base => ~20-30 million.

Exponential growth followed by saturation at 20-30 million in a few weeks or months?