I was frustrated with record-breaking global CO2 emissions, so I created a bunch of charts and wrote about it. Discovered the fascinating simplicity of the Kaya identity and the only real solution it points to: shrinking our economies! Hope I didn't mess up the data too much 🤞😅

https://blog.datawrapper.de/global-carbon-emissions-what-to-do/

#Datavis #ClimateChange #GlobalCarbonBudget

RT @350
⚠️Global North countries will have us believe they're taking action on climate... but the latest #GlobalCarbonBudget projects a 1% rise in fossil emissions this year.

We won't be able to keep below 1.5°C if we continue to rely on fossil fuels — the dash for gas must stop.

I'm wondering now, whether what I had learned in #1 about nutrients accumulating on winter sea ice and providing feed to ocean creatures in spring melt in Antarctica isn't also true in the Arctic.

While the verdict on Antarctica's sea ice growth or shrinkage is still uncertain, the Arctic sea is in adaption mode for sure, ie., it is shrinking in age, in area covered and in thickness. Surely, the nutrient accumulation process on sea ice that impacts the ocean carbon sink, is also active in the Arctic. And ice IS shrinking there.
The Global Carbon Project reports a 4% lower growth of the ocean sink for 2021. (And 17% lower growth of the land carbon sink.) (Note, the sinks still grew in tandem with anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but they grew less. As if they were approaching some saturation threshold.)

And also worrying to the Carbon experts is that they find a now seemingly persistent trend of a negative imbalance in the carbon budget.
The imbalance is the calculation result of CO2 sources minus carbon sinks. If the imbalance is negative it can be due to CO2 sources being higher than estimated, or due to sinks being smaller than estimated - or both.

So, I'm all the more curious whether the nutrients-seaice process in the Arctic does exist and whether less ice growth in winter already negatively affects the ocean carbon sink.
... indeed, the cryosphere report states that on page 34. Well, there you go. Mystery solved.

On the side: sea ice-free Arctic will occur at least once before 2050. And the Arctic is now officially warming 4 times faster than global average, not 2-3 times faster as the previous official figure.
Depending on our leaders' emission policies, or rather, depending on our determination as climate activists to pressure our leaders to sufficient action wrt degrowth,
the Arctic summer can be ice free from June to November by 2040 or 2050.

Which lets me wonder how that'll impact Northern Hemisphere weather. Which path will a jetstream choose that is no longer "fuelled" by an ice-cold Arctic sea? Where will the highs and lows in air pressure form which in recent years caused stationary heatwaves or the very slow-moving deep Bernd in July 2021 with torrential rain over Belgium, Switzerland and Germany.
I can probably scholar-google that answer.
But getting my curiousity triggered is a gift on its own.

Maybe, by 2030, the lack of summer sea ice will create jetstream patterns every year like the one in 2019 when the french farmer burnt to death during harvest on his wheat field.

#Antarctica #Arctic #OceanCarbonSink #CarbonSink #SeaIce #GlobalCarbonBudget #GlobalCarbonProject

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/declining-antarctic-sea-ice-could-disrupt-a-major-carbon-sink/
#SeaIce #Antarctica #CarbonSink #OceanSink #GlobalCarbonProject #GlobalCarbonBudget

That's an old-ish article about Antarctic sea ice from 2020. It's mainly about a process that lets AA sea ice grow when Northern Hemisphere warms, like during deglaciation.
The bigger area of winter sea ice then accumulates more nutrients on its surface and when it melts in spring, the nutrients feed ocean creatures. The more ocean creatures, the bigger the ocean carbon sink. This process is thought to be responsible for a CO2 plateau at 240ppm lasting 2000 years during the last warming of the Northern Hemisphere, the last deglaciation.
And nowadays, lower sea ice expansion in AA winters might shrink the ocean carbon sink in spring due to lower nutrient availability.

The article mentions a few other then-recent papers on the ocean sink.

Just thought it might interest some if you because of the 2 updates this week, one update of the Global Carbon Project, and the other an update of the 2019 IPCC report on cryosphere and ocean.

@Nephele @Fischblog
Word!
Aus dem neuen #GlobalCarbonBudget
"The ocean and land sinks have continued to grow with increasing atmospheric CO2 and to take up around half of the emissions.
Climate change is already reducing these growths by about 4% (ocean sink) and 17% (land sink)."

Was da so mechanistisch-utilitaristisch klingt, dass nämlich die Senken nicht mehr synchron mit dem CO2-Ausstoß wachsen, liegt an ihrer Überforderung.
Die Überdüngung durch CO2 hat die Pflanzen zu heftig wachsen lassen und sie haben dadurch ihren Boden von Nährstoffen ausgelaugt und ihr verstärktes Wachstum hat die lokale Hydrologie verändert.
Dazu natürlich die Effekte von nur 1,25ºC Erhitzung wie Dürren, verschobene Jahreszeiten mit veränderten diurnal Temperaturunterschieden, Hitzewellen und Kälteeinbrüchen durch mäandernden Jetstream.

Usw.

Du kennst das ja.

Jedenfalls. Die "Anpassung" der Biosphäre an die schnelle Erhitzung und ihrer Nebeneffekte und an selbst-verstärkenden Prozesse in der Biosphäre – das wird ein langes Sterben sein und hat längst begonnen, sichtbar zB durch die Asynchronizität der Kohlenstoffsenken vs Emissionen bei nur 1.25ºC.

This looks like great inspiration + #Data for #30DayMapChallenge from the #GlobalCarbonBudget report... https://fediscience.org/@jhauck/109325411493784530

Der Bericht zum #GlobalCarbonBudget liefert alarmierende Zahlen: Die globalen #CO2-Emissionen erreichen einen neuen Höchststand. Die Autorïnnen fordern drastische Veränderungen, um die #Erderwärmung auf unter 2 Grad zu begrenzen. (€)
@elena_matera @riffklima
https://www.riffreporter.de/de/umwelt/klimawandel-umwelt-co2-emissionen-treibhausgase-carbon-budget-energie

So today the #GlobalCarbonBudget report is being launch for 2022 @jhauck is doing some nice summary posts.. #FF
https://fediscience.org/@jhauck/109324375992388882

The day the #GlobalCarbonBudget is released is always special.
2022: +1 % from 2021.
I suspect the #RussianInvasion of #Ukraine and disruption to energy markets to contribute to the smaller increase from last year along with inflation and supply shortages.
On the other hand, emissions from coal are up in EU and India in part due to the war. Invasion's impact on land use emissions via deforestation and lower yields so far highly uncertain.
Paper " https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/4811/2022/
@anthropocene