Key findings #globalcarbonproject for 2022.The planetary remaining carbon budget is being decreasing by the day and not only for a 1.5 C trajectory.

Key findings for 2022 #globalcarbonproject. The planetary remaining carbon budget is being decreasing by the day and not only for a 1.5 C trajectory (projected CO2-emissions for 2022: 40,6 Gt)

key findings #globalcarbonproject for 2022 Global fossil fuel emissions seem to be the highest ever – despite high prices (see graph below) with almost 38 Gt CO2

Behold my secret #methane formula 😁

1 Mt methane <=> 3.111 ppb <=> 0.001 ºC

Valid for the OH cycle 2010-2019.

Applying it to +15ppb in 2020, I get ~5Mt CH4 growth.

#GlobalCarbonProject attributes 15ppb to #wetlands and #OHsink while industry is said to have had LOWER CH4.

I'd say half of the 5Mt was pandemic-induced flaring & bankrupt companies.

2.5Mt are 7 #Nordstream events (released 356247t).
2020 satellite data saw 5.5Mt from such <large-scale> leaks. But seeping wells and flares?🤷🏼‍♀️

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05447-w
I get how less #NOx from transport had reduced #OH 2020 and floods or #heatwaves on #permafrost emitted ++ #CH4.
But we <know>: industry upped incomplete flaring yet lies re figures; and info re unplugged wells from bankrupt US-companies is missing. Both caused lots CH4 in 2020.

#GlobalCarbonProject 's work on #methane naturally involves some guesstimates, I get it. But the fact that they don't mention the 2 factors means lots CH4 unaccounted for.
=>OH sink shrunk less⁉️

@arthurgessler @TXsharon
I understand how less #NOx from transport had reduced #OH and flooding and #heatwaves on #permafrost emitted more #CH4.
But we <know> that industry figures wrt incomplete flaring is false and info on bankrupt companies with open wells is missing. Both caused lots CH4 in 2020.
➡️OH sink shrunk less⁉️

#GlobalCarbonProject 's work on #methane naturally involves some guesstimates, I get that. But the fact that they don't mention these 2 factors means they simply forgot them.

‘Deeply depressing’: Medienberichte zu Klima und Energie, 12. und 13.11.2022 (🧵)

1.5 is dead – Emissionsrekord 2022 – Ungenügende Reduktionsziele der Hauptemittenten – Präzisierung der europäischen Ziele – Enttäuschende Statements Bidens – Lobbying der Fossilindustrie auf der COP27 – Mia Mottley – Alab Ayroso – Entwaldungs-Höhepunkt am Amazonas – Erhitzung von Nord- und Ostsee (1/12)

#LossAndDamage #BridgetownInitiative #GlobalCarbonProject #Klimanotstand #COP27

I'm wondering now, whether what I had learned in #1 about nutrients accumulating on winter sea ice and providing feed to ocean creatures in spring melt in Antarctica isn't also true in the Arctic.

While the verdict on Antarctica's sea ice growth or shrinkage is still uncertain, the Arctic sea is in adaption mode for sure, ie., it is shrinking in age, in area covered and in thickness. Surely, the nutrient accumulation process on sea ice that impacts the ocean carbon sink, is also active in the Arctic. And ice IS shrinking there.
The Global Carbon Project reports a 4% lower growth of the ocean sink for 2021. (And 17% lower growth of the land carbon sink.) (Note, the sinks still grew in tandem with anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but they grew less. As if they were approaching some saturation threshold.)

And also worrying to the Carbon experts is that they find a now seemingly persistent trend of a negative imbalance in the carbon budget.
The imbalance is the calculation result of CO2 sources minus carbon sinks. If the imbalance is negative it can be due to CO2 sources being higher than estimated, or due to sinks being smaller than estimated - or both.

So, I'm all the more curious whether the nutrients-seaice process in the Arctic does exist and whether less ice growth in winter already negatively affects the ocean carbon sink.
... indeed, the cryosphere report states that on page 34. Well, there you go. Mystery solved.

On the side: sea ice-free Arctic will occur at least once before 2050. And the Arctic is now officially warming 4 times faster than global average, not 2-3 times faster as the previous official figure.
Depending on our leaders' emission policies, or rather, depending on our determination as climate activists to pressure our leaders to sufficient action wrt degrowth,
the Arctic summer can be ice free from June to November by 2040 or 2050.

Which lets me wonder how that'll impact Northern Hemisphere weather. Which path will a jetstream choose that is no longer "fuelled" by an ice-cold Arctic sea? Where will the highs and lows in air pressure form which in recent years caused stationary heatwaves or the very slow-moving deep Bernd in July 2021 with torrential rain over Belgium, Switzerland and Germany.
I can probably scholar-google that answer.
But getting my curiousity triggered is a gift on its own.

Maybe, by 2030, the lack of summer sea ice will create jetstream patterns every year like the one in 2019 when the french farmer burnt to death during harvest on his wheat field.

#Antarctica #Arctic #OceanCarbonSink #CarbonSink #SeaIce #GlobalCarbonBudget #GlobalCarbonProject

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/declining-antarctic-sea-ice-could-disrupt-a-major-carbon-sink/
#SeaIce #Antarctica #CarbonSink #OceanSink #GlobalCarbonProject #GlobalCarbonBudget

That's an old-ish article about Antarctic sea ice from 2020. It's mainly about a process that lets AA sea ice grow when Northern Hemisphere warms, like during deglaciation.
The bigger area of winter sea ice then accumulates more nutrients on its surface and when it melts in spring, the nutrients feed ocean creatures. The more ocean creatures, the bigger the ocean carbon sink. This process is thought to be responsible for a CO2 plateau at 240ppm lasting 2000 years during the last warming of the Northern Hemisphere, the last deglaciation.
And nowadays, lower sea ice expansion in AA winters might shrink the ocean carbon sink in spring due to lower nutrient availability.

The article mentions a few other then-recent papers on the ocean sink.

Just thought it might interest some if you because of the 2 updates this week, one update of the Global Carbon Project, and the other an update of the 2019 IPCC report on cryosphere and ocean.

At merely 1.25ºC global heating, the carbon sinks entered adaption mode: "Climate change is already reducing these growths by about 4% (ocean sink) and 17% (land sink)." #GlobalCarbonProject

When mankind follows this trend, will it be by disaster or by design? #Adaption #Lanz #Anpassung #CarbonSink https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm

@blueplanetslittlehelper @SheDrivesMobility

Richtig, die 2% beziehen sich nur auf territoriale Emissionen.

Danke für den Link, der bestätigt die Aussage in der Präsentation des #GlobalCarbonProject (siehe Link, S. 82-83) mit präziseren, aktuelleren Daten. Also: Diese Externalisierung gibt es schon lange (grooooße Überraschung) und hält bis heute an.

https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pdf

Dazu die historische Schuld...
Gibt nichts mehr rauszureden, finde ich.