My colleague Olivier Blanchard, together with Nobel Laureate Ben Bernanke, attribute the 2022 spike in US inflation mostly to energy prices — not labor-market tightness.

New paper at #NBER —> https://www.nber.org/papers/w31417

“Carbon taxation, coupled with appropriate intergenerational redistribution, can make all current and future generations better off. Indeed, it can make them uniformly better off.”
-- NBER paper “Making Carbon Taxation a Generational Win Win”, PDF here:
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25760/w25760.pdf

🧵 6/x
--
#NBER #CarbonTax #PollutionTax #economics

New #NBER working paper out by Yale's Costas Arkolakis and my #Columbia colleague Conor Walsh. The results are stark:

Even though ~70% of Inflation Reduction Act (#IRA) is inframarginal, learning-by-doing effects are *huge*: $100b in spending generate ~$970b of additional GDP "due to cheaper power prices both in the US and
around the world."

Lots of winners. Lots of distributional implications, too, of course. Fossils will fight 'til the very end.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w31615
#climate #economics

First was the excellent final day of the #NBER Urban #Economics conference. This is packed with great talks, but the highlight for me was the talk by Michael Luca on how minority-owned business labels on online platforms can increase demand. Highly recommend https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnvmPCJqd54 (2/6)

Next was an excellent pair of talks at the #NBER Personnel Economics conference. The first talk by Elizabeth Lyons on remote dyad coordination is some of the best experimental evidence I've seen on the short-term effects of constrained vs. flex scheduling. Highly recommend https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKMZ82vj7BM (3/10) #economics #RemoteWork #PeopleAnalytics

Next was the stellar final day of the #NBER Labor Studies conference. I particularly liked the talks by Amanda Agan (automatic human behavior and algorithmic #bias), Keyon Vafa (using tranformer models to learn models of career progression with applications to the gender wage gap), and Kyle Greenberg (the impact of the deferred acceptance algorithm on job matching). Highly recommend the whole day https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OPSOHT5uu4 (3/7) #economics

Next was the first day of the #NBER Personnel #Economics conference. The first highlight for me was Lindsey Raymond's talk quantifying the productivity impact of #AI recommendations at work. Importantly, they showed that recommendations improved performance for the lowest performers but reduced performance for high performers. This adds further fuel to the story that on average applications of AI recommendations and #LLMs at work will likely reduce long term organizational performance. (3/8)

Last was the third day of the #NBER Labor Studies conference. I especially liked the talk by Anders Humlum on the impact of workers enrolling in bachelor's programs after work injuries https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqcnviYxXgg (5/5) #economics

Next was the second day of the #NBER labor studies conference. There's a host of fascinating talks here, with standouts being @seema_econ's work on trade-offs in spouse earnings and moves and Wladislaw Mill's talk on using generated LinkedIn profile pictures to investigate discrimination in link formation. Highly recommend https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-WjrQb-07A (8/8) #economics

First was the fantastic second day of the #NBER #gender and the economy conference. There are particularly amazing talks by Christine Exley (unfortunate effects of optional information policies on equity), Amanda Agan (salary history effects of employer demand), and Joanna Venator (dual earner migration). Highly recommend https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dpKuiCA138 (2/8) #economics

Last was an incredible first day of #NBER's labor studies conference. This event is packed with fabulous talks - Emma Harrington (productivity impact of proximity), Yana Gallen (labor market returns to delaying pregnancy), Isaac Sorkin (quantifying racial disparities using consecutive employment spells), Raj Chetty (effects of parental wealth on college admissions), and Linh Tô (hiring and the dynamics of the #gender gap). Highly recommend https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USDFGskOCC0 (5/5) #work #economics

Next was the last day of the #NBER's digital #economics and #AI conference. There are a lot of great talks here, with standouts including Renata Gaineddenova (pricing and efficiency in ride-hailing) and Mert Demirer (the effects of #GDPR on cloud data storage and processing) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rXEGUKct2E (3/5)

Next was a thought-provoking talk by Victoria Gregory on subjective earnings risk at #NBER. Through surveys Gregory demonstrates that individuals' estimates of how likely it is that their annual earnings are at risk can significantly diverge from macro models https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOUUHsQdwmE (4/5) #economics

Next was an interesting talk by Jane Ryngaert on how #inflation and wage expectations impact job searches at #NBER. Ryngaert convincingly showed that inflation can be expected to stimulate job searches and transitions, with implications for policy makers and companies https://www.youtube.com/live/urB2o76yfws?feature=share&t=3636 (3/5) #economics

Next was the first day of the #NBER Industrial Organization conference, with notable talks by Nathan Miller on technology and market power in the cement industry (the favorite industry of economics™) and Michael Dinerstein on the teacher labor market https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ohm-0d5sXms (4/6) #economics #education

First was the third day of the #NBER's #labor market symposium. There are some great talks here - Loukas Karabarbounis (#MinimumWage and labor markets in the Twin Cities), John Grigsby (incentive pay and unemployment), and Manolis Galenianos (vacancies and hiring through different recruiting channels). Highly recommend (split across two videos BTW) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLsDnWnuzGY and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhuFMZ4ayhY (2/6) #economics

Next was the final day of the #NBER inequality and macroeconomics symposium. There's a big focus on economic spatial effects from a variety of perspectives https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxbcNoSACJQ (6/7) #economics

Next was the last day of #NBER's #innovation workshop. There's a ton of fascinating work here - particularly Parker Rogers (approval costs and innovation in MedTech), @Watzinger (breakup of the Bell system and its impact on innovation), and Joel Waldfogel (welfare effects of gender-inclusive #IP creation in #books). Highly recommend the whole day (although the first talk is cut into pieces unfortunately) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfY4IEPiWGw (4/7) #economics

First was the third day of the #NBER's micro data and macro models conference. There's some interesting work here on layoffs vs. cutting wages by Antoine Bertheau in the second talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl374I1r0HE (2/7) #economics

Next were a pair of talks on outsourcing and technology adoption/innovation incentives by Dimitrije Ruzic and Younghun Shim respectively at the #NBER macroeconomics and productivity conference. Both of these talks have direct implications on how companies and governments think about various tradeoffs and their implications for overall welfare https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_sydiGzA2g (4/5) #economics #innovation