New article out in Comparative Politics @ https://bit.ly/40LaA1w

Does #CivilResistance work?

A lot of research looks at this question, with the pioneering book Why Civil Resistance Works leading the way. Some argue that WCRW's statistical findings suffer from incomplete data, but none checked whether this concern would actually infringe on the results. I discuss and simulate the role of missingness in WCRW, and find a substantial lack of robustness. #PeaceResearch #Replication #Simulation

Does anyone know if Cirillo and Taleb (2016) ever published their secret data set with which they allegedly were able to disprove the decline-of-war thesis?

I mean the one from this paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315

Not that I'd trust a time series starting in 1 CE, but I'm curious.

@politicalscience @socialscience #PeaceResearch #OpenData #OpenScience #PoliticalScience #InternationalRelations

One of the awkward conversations to be had in peace research is that your interest in COW data does not, in fact, relate to cows.

#COW #cows #data #PeaceResearch

Do #disasters create #peace?
Typically no, according to our work on #DisasterDiplomacy http://www.disasterdiplomacy.org

See especially the two books http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9780415679930 and https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004316140

#DRR #DisasterRiskReduction #ScienceDiplomacy #DiseaseDiplomacy #Diplomacy #PeaceResearch #ConflictResearch #VaccineDiplomacy #DRRConflict #ConflictDRR

Cool! Just to put everyone in a single toot, here are the PeaceResearchers known on the Fediverse so far:

@seanfobbe @markscogan @Prof_BearB @dorotheegoetze @PeaceJournalism

Disclaimer: I haven't done any peer-reviewed #PeaceResearch myself. However, I have opened up a space for people interested in coordinating wiki-encyclopedic [1] coverage of peace research [2] - ordinary people generally don't want to read research articles. #OpenScience

[1] aka Wikipedia

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User%3aBoud/Draft%3aWikiProject_Peace

@markscogan @boud Also here and working on #PeaceResearch - @Prof_BearB

@stevenjgibbons

Seems like an important journal for #PeaceResearch . Currently #RedLinked on en- #Wikipedia [1]. Wikipedians - find good sources and create/edit!

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Journal_for_Peace_and_Nuclear_Disarmament

@seanfobbe If you click on #PeaceResearch or #PeaceResearchers you'll see that there are, so far, extremely tiny lists of toots with these hashtags - but at least they're started now.

@kravietz @nemobis

That highlights another caveat in the raw number of violations: they are not neatly attributed to either side in a way easy to extract automatically from the pdfs. A human who knows the geography and can follow the SMM's notes could probably classify and attribute the violations, but if it took 1/2 hour per report, then that would still require about 1000 hours of manual analysis to do.

#DataCuration #PeaceResearch #OpenData #OpenResearch

@nemobis

An answer would need:

(1a) better parsing of a few thousand OSCE SMM pdf files (diverse formats) + thorough manual checking; or

(1b) convince OSCE SMM people to publish machine readable (e.g. csv) data; or

(1c) manually (human eye+brain) extract the data;

+

(2) get systematic #OpenData on weapons shipments

+

* (ideally) choose a non-parametric statistical method of analysis

#OpenScience #PeaceResearch