by #PaulRosenberg in #Salon:

"The odds that a given state or society can escape such a crisis relatively unscathed are not good, nor does Turchin perceive many signs of hope on the horizon. As he told me in our interview, 'We don't have to do exactly the same thing the Democrats did in the New Deal, but somehow we have to achieve the same result. And I just don't see that happening.'"

https://www.salon.com/2023/07/02/a-short-history-of-civilizational-collapse-are-we-next--and-how-can-we-prevent-it/

#US #history #civilization #democracy #plutocracy #PeterTurchin

@seldoncrisis Sounds interesting... have you read any of #PeterTurchin 's work? #cliodynamics

History is driven by surprising events, forecasting is driven by predictable ones.

To this I amend "as practiced". Approaches such as #PeterTurchin's #Cliodynamics or #DavidChristian's #BigHistory, along with other forms of #Systems, #Complexity, #Evolutionary, and #Information based approaches suggest that there may be lenses through which both the past and future become clearer.

I'd suggest that this observation might be most useful for identifying potentially poorly considered history and forecasting practices.

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