8/

#References

[1] Nature Sustainability, 2023. Summers up in smoke. Nature Sustainability 6 (8), 875–876. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01211-8

[2] Gilletly, S.D., Jackson, N.D., Staid, A., 2023. Evaluating the impact of wildfire smoke on solar photovoltaic production. Applied Energy 348, 121303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121303

#DOI #GlobalChange #ClimateChange #HumanCaused #adaptation #preparedness #EmergencyManagement #uncertainty #HighStakes #UrgentDecisions #ExtendedPeerCommunities #PostNormalScience

7/
"a more careful appreciation of uncertainty and ignorance [...] against the hubris of quantification often seen in science for policy" [4]

#References

[3] van der Sluijs, J.P., 2012. Uncertainty and dissent in climate risk assessment: a post-normal perspective. Nature and Culture 7, 174–195. https://doi.org/10.3167/nc.2012.070204

[4] Saltelli, A., Funtowicz, S., 2017. What is science’s crisis really about? Futures 91, 5–11.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.05.010

#DOI #modelling #PostNormalScience #ScienceSelfCorrection

7/

#References

[3] van der Sluijs, J.P., 2012. Uncertainty and dissent in climate risk assessment: a post-normal perspective. Nature and Culture 7, 174–195. https://doi.org/10.3167/nc.2012.070204

[4] Saltelli, A., Funtowicz, S., 2017. What is science’s crisis really about? Futures 91, 5–11.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.05.010

#DOI #science #research #CognitiveBiases #PostNormalScience #ScienceSelfCorrection #ComputationalModelling

More on @AndreaSaltelli @Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs et al [1]:

https://mstdn.social/@AndreaSaltelli/110117558118951102

"existing approaches have offered a dangerously reassuring picture of the risks involved by downplaying uncertainties"

"overreliance on neoclassical economical perspectives – the current dominant economic paradigm grounded on monetary assessments and the assumption of efficient and self-regulating markets – misses out on the #complexity of issues characterising reality"

#uncertainty #PostNormalScience

More on @AndreaSaltelli https://hostux.social/@Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs@mstdn.science et al [1]:

https://mstdn.social/@AndreaSaltelli/110117558118951102

"existing approaches have offered a dangerously reassuring picture of the risks involved by downplaying uncertainties"

"overreliance on neoclassical economical perspectives – the current dominant economic paradigm grounded on monetary assessments and the assumption of efficient and self-regulating markets – misses out on the #complexity of issues characterising reality"

#uncertainty #PostNormalScience

Vast implications of Figure SPM.5 in the #IPCC AR6 summary

A "wise" immediate change of emission patterns (to minimise risk) has become so drastic now that one might wonder if we'll be ever able to achieve it before some #TippingPoint becomes irreversible

Tipping points mean there is #DeepUncertainty: which adds to the urgency of decisions in a policy landscape of disputed values and huge stakes (#PostNormalScience): we may be forced to navigate within effects of unpredictable magnitude

8/

"Knowledge of the full #timeline casts a very different light, in particular on the difficulties currently encountered in the practice of #MES; far from being the expected growing pains of a young discipline, these difficulties turn out to be long-standing problems that have eluded solution over the last half-century and appear intrinsically unresolvable." [4]

#EcosystemServices #Uncertainty #ControversialMonetarisation #NonMarketValuation #PostNormalScience

4/
#References

[1] Saltelli, A., Kuc-Czarnecka, M., Piano, S.L., Lőrincz, M.J., Olczyk, M., Puy, A., Reinert, E., Smith, S.T., Van Der Sluijs, J.P., 2023. Impact assessment culture in the European Union. Time for something new? Environmental Science & Policy 142, 99-111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2023.02.005

[2] Masood, E., 2022. More than dollars: mega-review finds 50 ways to value nature. Nature d41586-022-01930-6+. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01930-6

#DOI #Uncertainty #PostNormalScience #ControversialMonetarisation

2/
#PostNormalScience perspectives "point to #COVID19 as a classic post normal case [...] never as with the present pandemics have numbers, and [...] measuring and modelling, taken centre-stage. Yet these numbers, often delivered by academics and media alike with extraordinary precision, rely on a rich repertoire of assumptions, including forms of #bias, that can significantly skew both the numbers per se and the trust we repose in them" [1]

@AndreaSaltelli @Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs @SFuntowicz

Scholars aware of #PostNormalScience "point to #COVID19 as a classic post normal case [...] never as with the present pandemics have numbers, and [...] measuring and modelling, taken centre-stage. Yet these numbers, often delivered by academics and media alike with extraordinary precision, rely on a rich repertoire of assumptions, including forms of #bias, that can significantly skew both the numbers per se and the trust we repose in them" [1]

@AndreaSaltelli @Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs @SFuntowicz

Scholars aware of #PostNormalScience "point to #COVID19 as a classic post normal case [...] numbers, often delivered by academics and media alike with extraordinary precision, rely on a rich repertoire of assumptions, including forms of bias, that can significantly skew both the numbers per se and the trust we repose in them. Modelling has made it to the headlines and become enmeshed in socio-political conflicts" [1]

@SFuntowicz @Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs

#introduction...

What I do:

#Sustainability
#IndustrialEcology
#lifecycleassessment
#emergingtechnology
#uncertainty
#PostNormalScience
#circulareconomy
#bioeconomy
#BlueEconomy

Interests:

#Science
#academia
#research
#Environment
#climate
#economics
#technology
#models
#data

I‘m new here, still figuring out how this works, compared to the other place (now “for the birds” - but all my network is there!) Interested in all things #evaluation #systems #systemsthinking #science #policy #STS #PostNormalScience #epistemology

I‘m new here, still figuring out how this works, compared to the other place (now “for the birds” - but all my network is there!) Interested in all things #evaluation #systems #systemsthinking #science #policy #STS #PostNormalScience #epistemology

For fans of #PostNormalScience, @SFuntowicz is trying out a home on SDF, https://sdf.org/?tutorials/social_network .

> To the users of the SDF Public Access UNIX System, 'SDF Social' is based on the concepts and principles of the early Social Networks that we have always been a part of and not the highly commercialized, for-profit and ethically questionable Social Networks of the late 1990s and 2000s.

> Simply put, SDF has always been about Collaboration, Non-Commercialism, Choice and Privacy.

Interesting choice for a proponent of #PhilosophyOfScience !