Jacob Something · @jkanev
102 followers · 569 posts · Server fediscience.org#mathematics #probability #traffic #politics
The main error of the Monty Hall problem is: It assumes having a car is more desirable than having a goat.
#politics #traffic #Probability #mathematics
Onemoment · @onemoment
16 followers · 52 posts · Server mstdn.socialDo you want to know how to fit a probability distribution to data? Watch the latest LabPlot's video tutorial.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0OQrAVwsTw
#DistributionFitting #ProbabilityDistribution #Distribution #StatisticalDistribution #Gaussian #Log-normal #Probability #Poisson #Binomial #Exponential #MaximumLikelihood #LabPlot
#labplot #maximumlikelihood #exponential #binomial #poisson #Probability #log #gaussian #statisticaldistribution #distribution #probabilitydistribution #distributionfitting
Bruce Nault II · @brucen2
34 followers · 218 posts · Server mstdn.social
Why Do We Overestimate The Probability Of Success?
https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/optimism-bias
#overestimate #probability #success #optimism #mindset #coaching
#coaching #mindset #optimism #success #Probability #overestimate
Philosophical Psychology · @PhilosophicalPsychology
1207 followers · 123 posts · Server fediscience.orgLatest papers: Kyriacou and Stylianou argue that at least some of us do not adequately possess the concept of #probability and that the digital dissemination of #misinformation helps foster collective irrationalities (e.g., #COVID19 underestimation) https://doi.org/10.1080/09515089.2023.2202184 @philosophy @philosophyofmind
#COVID19 #misinformation #Probability
Karthikeyan A K :verified: · @mindaslab
59 followers · 516 posts · Server mstdn.socialCover for my Clojure Data Science book https://yu7.in/6s3a2
#Clojure #Programming #DataScience #ArtificialIntelligence #MachineLearning #Statistics #Probability #Mathematics
#mathematics #Probability #statistics #MachineLearning #artificialintelligence #DataScience #Programming #clojure
Karthikeyan A K :verified: · @mindaslab
55 followers · 468 posts · Server mstdn-social.social.shrimpcam.pw
Karthikeyan A K :verified: · @mindaslab
55 followers · 468 posts · Server mstdn.social
Karthikeyan A K :verified: · @mindaslab
55 followers · 447 posts · Server mstdn.social
Henrik Wilming · @arrr
125 followers · 85 posts · Server fediscience.org
A #math question on #analysis and #probability.
Finding a neat solution for this would be of tremendous help for a research project on quantum information theory.
(We need to solve a more general problem, but this would be a great start.)
@johncarlosbaez@mathstodon.xy Do you mind reposting this on @mathstodon.xy ?
Steven P. Sanderson II, MPH · @stevensanderson
41 followers · 236 posts · Server mstdn.social
Random walks have a wide range of applications, including modeling the movement of stock prices, animal migration, and the spread of infectious diseases. They are also a fundamental concept in #probability and #statistics, and have been studied extensively in the literature.
I have written a new #blogpost that goes over how to #generate the #data for the #randomwalk and how to #visualize it.
#timeseries #timeseriesanalysis #randomwalk #random #movement #physics
Post: https://www.spsanderson.com/steveondata/posts/rtip-2022-12-20/
#Physics #movement #random #timeseriesanalysis #timeseries #visualize #randomwalk #Data #generate #blogpost #statistics #Probability
C. Harris Floudas · @chfloudas
52 followers · 199 posts · Server mstdn.social
Mapping of #probability descriptions to perceived numeric interpretation, useful to keep in mind when talking to patients
RT @emollick: Words choices matter when communicating probability. Is something more probable if it is “likely” or a ”serious possibility”?
One chart is a result of a survey of humans. I asked #ChatGPT its interpretations & graphed them (reloading the answer changed them a bit, but not a lot) https://t.co/3YPXIraVRZ
Dennis Alexis Valin Dittrich · @davdittrich
380 followers · 152 posts · Server fediscience.orgData Science and Decision Making Under Uncertainty
https://vanishinggradients.fireside.fm/16
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=lNKekkR8xSg
#datascience #decisionmaking
#Probability #uncertainty
#heuristics #BoundedRationality
#BoundedRationality #heuristics #uncertainty #Probability #decisionmaking #datascience
Dennis Alexis Valin Dittrich · @davdittrich
372 followers · 149 posts · Server fediscience.orgA nice resource:
The Only #Probability Cheatsheet You'll Ever Need
https://www.wzchen.com/probability-cheatsheet
10-page probability cheatsheet that summarizes important probability concepts, formulas, and distributions, with figures, examples, and stories.
Dennis Alexis Valin Dittrich · @davdittrich
349 followers · 91 posts · Server fediscience.org
Julia Hargreaves · @julesberry
76 followers · 38 posts · Server fediscience.orgWhen I first looked 4 days ago I found nothing under some of my interest hashtags, but now I believe they are others out there, so it could be time for an #introduction … 😁
#science #openaccess #editing #climate #paleoclimate #probability #covid #cycling #zwift #mtb #quaker #classicalmusic #recorder #ukpolitics #sewing #crochet
Could never find anything useful on Twitter, but didn’t know about Mastodon until last week. It’s so much more interesting…
#crochet #sewing #ukpolitics #recorder #classicalmusic #quaker #mtb #zwift #cycling #Covid #Probability #paleoclimate #Climate #editing #openaccess #science #introduction
hobs · @hobs
408 followers · 763 posts · Server mstdn.socialIf you play an infinite number of rounds you'll have infinite payoff (#probability theory #ExpectedValue)
But if you paid $1k to play each round your real world expected value is negative rather than the #infinity $ that math says it is.
Because...
Like #Martingale betting strategy, you don't have an infinite bankroll...
Nor infinite time.
As you keep tossing tails, you have exponential payoff growth, BUT you also have linear cost growth
And you cant buy time with $
#martingale #infinity #ExpectedValue #Probability
hobs · @hobs
408 followers · 763 posts · Server mstdn.socialAlen Hajek's #probability #puzzles and #paradoxes on the 80k hr podcast was mind blowing.
But I think I solved the St Petersburg Paradox.
Imagine a casino that offers exponentially increasing payoff on coin toss sequence (example outcomes below).
That should give infinite expected value, so you should be willing to pay a lot of money to play. But in reality casino can profitably price it for $1000 or so.
H pays $2
T H pays $4
T T H = $8
N*T H = 2^N $
#Paradoxes #puzzles #Probability
Victor Venema · @VictorVenema
1480 followers · 1653 posts · Server fediscience.org@ericireland It is good to be able to hold multiple thoughts in your head, to be able to use a theory while knowing it (might be) wrong, but I do not like expressing this as a #probability. You sometimes even see people building Bayesian models for this.
We know classical mechanics is wrong due to quantum mechanics. In its range of applicability it is phenomenal, however. We know quantum mechanics or relativity must be wrong (because they conflict). Are they 50% right???
Karthikeyan A K :verified: · @mindaslab
48 followers · 271 posts · Server mstdn.social
GOFAI and Motecarlo Simulation added in Introduction to DataScience
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mindaslab/gofai-motecarlo-simulation-added
#MachineLearning #ArtificialIntelligence #DataScience #julialang #Probability #Mathematics
#mathematics #Probability #julialang #DataScience #artificialintelligence #MachineLearning
Leonard/Janis Robert König · @ljrk
150 followers · 8885 posts · Server todon.eu
RT @KirkDBorne
FREE 223-page PDF — content for the course on #Probability and #Statistics for first-year #mathematics students at Cambridge University: https://bit.ly/3rcOSDZ
————
#StatisticalLiteracy #BigData #DataScience #DataLiteracy #MachineLearning #BeDataBrilliant
#Probability #statistics #mathematics #statisticalliteracy #bigdata #datascience #dataliteracy #machinelearning #BeDataBrilliant