Really excellent interview by @erictopol with my risk measurement hero or the pandemic. With transcript.

"from medical school, from all my education, we're not trained to think that viruses, especially respiratory viruses, have these myriad effects and all these organ systems."

> @erictopol 🔗 https://mstdn.social/users/erictopol/statuses/111048570993591436
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My conversation with Prof Ziyad Al-Aly on his extraordinary body of research to understand the impact of Covid

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/ziyad-al-aly-illuminating-long-covid

#LongCovid #covid19 #sars2 #sarscov2

Starting a series of posts with the hashtag #NoToBrainInfections which you may follow if you want to think about something disturbing and terrifying but also pretty damn important, with this screenshot of something I came across in five minutes on Elon’s fash playground.

I have a lot to say about this and the public health catastrophe that mass #infection with the #SARS2 virus is causing. But I’ve spent too much time shouting into the void about it.

If you’re interested, you know what to do.

If we want to think about the risk from #BA286 I think it's very important to keep two scenarios in mind.

We have seen #variants emerge with high variation from prior ancestors

1. that did not take off
2. that exploded

in the population. Both scenarios have happened.

The recent lab studies suggest (1) is more likely than (2). However, we don't have a great track record yet of predicting which variants will (or won't) take off.

So be careful sighing with relief over the recent "good news, it's tame" reporting. It may be right, it may not be.

We won't *know* which of these scenarios are materializing until we see waste water surveillance & hospitalization data. We can watch various bellweather countries & states for early indications.

If you are #precautionary, then it's time to get out your respirators again and reactivate your airborne precautions.

Of course, some of us have never stopped with the airborne precautions, because we can't risk making the impact we are living every day any worse.
#sars2 #sarscov2 #wave #covid19

#SARS2 exhibits a cunning epidemiological strategy. Its delayed and progressive impacts seem to manifest just beyond typical election cycles, conveniently allowing leaders to overlook its long-term consequences, as their immediate political futures are unaffected by the denial.

#EpiVerse #epidemiology

I'm sorry but if your kids aren't masked in school and you only mask when peers aren't watching then that means your family isn't doing anything effective to protect yourselves or others. The more you #MaskUp the better, the asymptomatic rapid antigen test evasive infection you're carrying is going to spread less from you if you're masked. But if you mask consistently you can avoid becoming infected in the first place and greatly reduce your chances of developing #LongCOVID symptoms.

Many are still dying of acute #SARS2 but if you are vaccinated the main concern is that you're going to be disabled or die from the neurodegenerative effects of the virus or the cardiovascular system problems or diabetes vulnerability it causes.

You need to be aware of the risks you're taking if you are more worried about the social stigma of being masked up than the effects of COVID and other infections (which having had COVID makes you more vulnerable to!). It's a very extreme risk and I would rather be discriminated against by financial institutions and harassed by random assholes for masking while I go about my #COVIDimmunocompromised life than get infected again and again because people are looking at me funny.

Not masking because you want to be "normal" is giving up.

@Juicyfranck @sudnadja
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK8538/

ignorance is not bliss & they should be more afraid, mainly of the long term consequences
#viralPersistence #PASC
#EndothelialDamage #acceleratedAging

Perhaps it’s b/c I was a kid w/mad active imagination during #Reagan but there was nothing scarier to me than #HIV #AIDS

#SARS2 has replaced that fear b/c there are therapeutics for one & not the other

Given the choice, I’d take #HIV vs repeated♾️reinfection #Covid

@trendless @PacificNic
When I randomly hear about people having #migraines immediately think uh-oh… #EndothelialDamage

Innocuous symptoms are problematic too & it need not be exotic, altho there’s plenty of that too

Idk how, but this perfectly formed pebble that looks like a split pea is SOMEHOW a metaphor for #sars2 😂🤣😂😂😂🤷🏻‍♀️

Finding it in my cooked soup changed my protocol for legumes & beans b/c consequences could be dire. Most would find this response a bit dramatic, but I don’t think so🖤

some light #Sunday listening..
We have been throwing millions & the smartest minds at finding a “cure” for #Alzheimers with zero success since the 1970’s

#sars2 #covid19 appear to be accelerating this disease along with countless others

It’s not exactly easy to avoid future disease, but the small things you do daily today can & will affect your future #wearADamnRespirator #wearAMask #novavax #iotaCarageenan

@novid @VeeRat @Rachel_Thorn @Pineywoozle @Kjl
I’m actually still wearing a cloth mask to this day, albeit it’s 6 layers of different fibers to create max electrostatic effect & the fit FAR surpasses my initial design; mechanical filtration is a thing😉

In 2020-mid-2021 #SARS2 was less contagious meaning it took more time to get tipping point #viralLoad

Tbh #n95 gets you <⏱️these days too..

this study interesting & where I got the multi-layered approach
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252

To be clear, if I have to take the #NYC subway during high peak, I will don a😷 & 👩🏼‍🚀#microclimateAir2
The air is so saturated w/virions it’s simply not safe to have just a mask. If I can keep it below 1.5 hours, will do the #HEPA necklace & now hold it millimeters from my face. I really should get an elastomeric, but there no way my spouse will let me traipse around in it. I already sneak out w/the 👩🏼‍🚀 b/c he’s afraid people will target me

Long story short, your masks you made for people were a super thing🌈💕💗💛💗🌈

@noyes
Oh that’s nice.. I already had the OG D614G (I remember it by Dolce & Gabbana😂) That should be helpful🙄🙄from 3 full years ago🙄

I remember when I was a “sweet summer child” & believed my prior infection & 2 #Pfizer was going to give me 2 years at the least & possibly lifelong immunity 😶..
😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂😂😂

Everyone thinks I’m a hysterical Hen but I am NOT going to get my head chopped off thank you very much! #roadRunner

Ironically my #SARS2 infection # 1 also came from Italy, just like these shoes… & if I wanted to die, I’d go traipsing around in these shoes which is why they don’t get worn!

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40750-8
Ok, it never gets old being right🖤
Will never say I told you so… but I will gleefully say I WAS RIGHT! I❤️science #evidence

Last July ‘22 pre- #Novavax but post 2 #mRNA & 2 infections (3/‘20 & 1/‘22) had multiple low-dose exposures & was successfully able to fight off getting full #SARS2
It was a LOT of work after 1 when accidentally snorted a giant amount like Pacino at the end of Scarface after shutting my apt.🚪w/🪟shut air filter off… but managed to,so knew it could be done

Dear Uncle,

I never got a chance to meet you, because when you were 21 years old you got lined up against a wall at Torgau prison and shot by firing squad. You would not keep that uniform on and follow those orders.

I think about you a lot nowadays, Kurt Stein, nearly 80 years later, as smug officials once again follow their orders. As almost everyone goes along, pretending they are better than what they show themselves so clearly to be.

🧵

#Covid #CovidIsNotOver #SARS2

Today is #SARS2 IS NOT THE #FLU day, for all who celebrate.

Maybe this will be a thread, there are so many ways to celebrate.

1/ Waiting for Seasonality

Like Godot #SARS2 #seasonality is much discussed, but is likely to never arrive.

Why?

a. SARS2 R >>> 1 & influenza R<2
b. SARS2 mass transmission continues

Influenza R range means transmission falls off fast when people seperate, like getting outdoors in good weather. Conversely it gets more airborne transmission opportunity when clustering together indoors. Low R plus indoor clustering plus airborne transmission drives "seasonality" effect.

With SARS2 R in measles territory or above, and the documented ability for airborne superspreader events, viral kinetics of variants is more determinant of waves: opportunity and ability to transmit, ACE2 binding, immune evasion and level of societal mitigations against airborne transmission. Plus we have documented near field outdoor transmission.

@tjradcliffe has a nice Gaussian fit model that shows the lack of #seasonality

There is zero evidence that this will change. No evidence exists that SARS2 will become like influenza in transmission capability or disease effects. Not one paper.

As long as mass transmission continues, and the resulting ongoing evolution of SARS2 in the ACE2 binding vs immune evasiveness spaces continues, this "waiting for seasonality" is going to take a long while.

Seasonality, like Godot, will continue to be reported on with explosions of technical sounding justifications, claimed to be coming soon, hoped for, but very probably never arrive.

Evolution and #SARS2 #BA286

With the rare but frightening BA.2.86 variant, evolution is sending us a message:
This virus will not be quietly domesticated to become a mild cough or flu.
Out of thirty mutations, this variant has selected one that makes the strain more fusogenic. In other words, as lethal as the delta variant.
These two mutations at positions 679 and 681 of the spike protein are still found in isolation in certain sequences, this time among many other mutations, which could make this "option" an advantage once again.
And we are only sequencing the tip of the iceberg, because of the bad actors in #PublicHealth and the parasitic biotechnology companies that make viral RNA extraction and "next-generation sequencing" very expensive.
How many variants like this are out there?
How long will it take for the virus to reactivate its extremely lethal characteristics?
Source:
https://github.com/sars-cov-2-variants/lineage-proposals/issues/606

@novid #CovidIsNotOver #COVID #MaskUp

Grateful for a private deck off of the room I'm isolating in as I recover from COVID-19 because it allows me a little taste of summer while I'm cooped up at the apartment. Taking a mask break in my hammock now that it has finally stopped raining. #covidisnotover #covid #covid19 #sarscov2 #sars2 #summersick

Severe #COVID19 may lead to long-term innate #immune system changes

> These findings suggest that #SARSCoV2 can cause changes in gene expression that ultimately boost the production of #inflammatory #cytokines and one type of those cytokines perpetuates the process by inducing these changes in stem cells even after the illness is over.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/severe-covid-19-may-lead-long-term-innate-immune-system-changes

Epigenetic memory of #coronavirus infection in innate immune cells and their progenitors

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(23)00796-1

#Sars2 #covid19

@Brad @noyes
They DID do a decent job first few years but🇰🇷ushered in new admin last year? that’s equivalent to #GOP

They’ve slowly been stripping away restrictions & is in a similar place to where🇺🇸was last March

Education on #sars2 is dismal everywhere & complacency is here to stay it seems

Can’t really speak for other East Asian countries, but having visited Korea frequently since forever & can say their culture deeply mimics our own

They even have their own Jha #minimizer

> governments have abdicated their duty to protect and promote public health, demanding that we each assume personal responsibility to assess risk and take individual precautions

Admission: The First Step to a Sustainable Solution - John Snow Project

https://johnsnowproject.org/insights/admission-the-first-step-to-a-sustainable-solution/

> Admitting we have a problem is the first step to solving the problem. If we don’t recognize the challenges posed by SARS-CoV-2, the virus will continue to disrupt our way of life and exact a hefty toll in disability and death.

#COVID19 #sars2 #sarscov2 #CovidIsNotOver

@noyes @Brad oh this isn’t suspicious at all🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄😱
Reminds me of last year when #NYC wastewater had a giant gap no data from Biobot for July/August during massive highs. Difference is this year we’ve got so many #VOC in circulation it’s infinity wave

This is in preparation of election but it will be utter chaos by November 2024

There’s no difference in political parties handling on #SARS2 #Covid

It’s too hard so they pretend #everythingIsFine like society writ large🤬😡🥺

Also, saw this the other day & cannot find any flaw with it
https://www.tiktok.com/@patrickthebiosteamist/video/7267330476027989294

And.. South Korea data is something I’ve been relying on for over a year. I forget my formula but I usually multiply their numbers by 6.? to get an estimate of US numbers since they still test somewhat. They’ve totally lost their way, but their data is still useful as the society is similar to North America.

@gltor_mirror
Repeat after me:

No durable immunity.

#CovidIsNotOver #covid19 #sars2