@steurer
Ich vergesse immernoch ständig, dass Permafrost nun offiziell taut und offiziell jedes Jahr 2 - 5 Gt CO2 removal braucht, bloßum Temperatur stabil zu halten. Steht im neuen update zum 2019 erschienenen #IPCC Special Report Ocean And Cryosphere #SROC.
4Gt removal ist das Maximum, das der Planet uU nachhaltig via BECCS und dazugehöriger Monokultur managen kann. Aber diese 4Gt sind eigntl. verplant für Landwirtschaft u andere schwer zu mindernde Emissionssektoren...
#NegativBudget

I am maths dyslexic and need #help

The update to the 2019 IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere https://iccinet.org/statecryo2022/ chapter 4 states that CO2e from permafrost at current policy scenario requires removal per century of 400Gt CO2.
(Yes, permafrost is officially thawing and it is officially now requiring CO2 removal.)

The report doesn't say but I assume they use the official GWP by UNEP, 25 over 100 years.

How do I back-calculate those 400Gt CO2e to see how much methane it is that's going to be released per decade?

My calculation ends in a crazy warming of 1.6ºC per decade from permafrost thaw. Can you point me to where my mistake is?

It goes like this:
400Gt CO2e / 25 = 16Gt? If true, then CH4 from permafrost per decade is 1.6Gt. If true, and if the OH-sink stays the same, it'd mean 1.6ºC warming each decade.

Why 1.6ºC/decade:
*because #AR6-WG1 states that 2010-2019, methane caused 0.51ºC warming.
*from the Global Methane Project's top down view, we know that ~600Mt were released/yr
* and from NOAA, we know that the concentration was Ø 1830ppb in that decade.

It follows that in the decade 2010-2019, with the particular capacity of the OH-sink in that decade, 1Mt CH4 emissions resulted in 3.111 ppb and 0.001 ºC.

If these conditions stay the same, and if my back-calculation is correct for CO2e==>CH4, then the scientists are saying we're going to make permafrost thaw release 1.6Gt CH4 per decade which results in an immediate warming of 1.6ºC / decade, and to the weather and social chaos from this warming.

But I reckon, I must have omitted a zero somewhere. 0.16ºC feels more logical to me. I just don't know where I went wrong.

#Help #MathsDyslexia
#CO2e #GWP #CH4 #Permafrost #SROC #OHSink

From this week's published update to the 2019 IPPC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere.
Each chapter begins with an impacts comparison of 4 scenarios. This is #Permafrost.
Generation Greta will have to constantly remove lotsa CO2 just to keep temperature stable... in a low fossil emission scenario, removal at a rate of today's emission from India... just to counter the permafrost thaw. In the scenario of today's policies, the annual removal at a rate of America's emissions is required.

I know, no one wants to really know this and see their dreams shattered of green growth. Especially not the econ and polit journalists. That's why they don't write sbout this now inevitable necessity... 2Gt CO2 removal each year, just to keep temperature stable despite permafrost thaw. Then add the removal for enissions from agriculture or cement... and current installations barely accomplish single digit Mt per year. Good luck with that, Greta, and 10 more generations. This kind of cooperation over centuries seems unthinkable as of now, when the political actors are simulating their acts in role plays.

#Arctic #IPCC #SROC
#CSS #CDR #BECSS #CarbonRemoval #Methane

ICYMI
#IPCC #Cryosphere #SROC #Antarctica #Arctic #SeaIce #Greenland #OceanAcidification

The update to the 2019 IPCC report on cryosphere and oceans: https://iccinet.org/statecryo2022/

From a press release "This past year saw March rains on East Antarctica, with temperatures 40°C above normal; a spike in Greenland surface melt for the first time ever in September; loss of over 5% of glacier ice in the Alps this past summer; and the first documented rise in methane release due to global warming from a permafrost monitoring site.

It also saw greater shell damage in parts of the Arctic Ocean, a clear sign of growing acidification. All of these impacts are irreversible on human timescales.

The 2022 Report emphasizes the IPCC Sixth Assessment’s alarming conclusion that even with very low emissions, summer loss of Arctic sea ice will occur at least once, likely before 2050. The ceremony at the Cryosphere Pavilion nevertheless emphasizes that although we cannot now prevent future loss of this key cryosphere dynamic, emission reductions consistent with the 1.5°C Paris limit will drastically decrease the risk of passing ever more damaging cryosphere thresholds." https://pml.ac.uk/News/Terminal-Diagnosis-for-Arctic-Sea-Ice-State-of-the