A likely victory for the DPP in Taiwan's presidential election will create an ideological crisis and tactical dilemma for Beijing, writes @mhar4

#Taiwan #China #TaiwanElection

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/taiwan-election-another-headache-for-beijing/

Frozen Garlic discusses Terry Gou's entry into the presidential race. He doesn't think Gou has much chance of success or that there will be any cooperation between the pan-blue candidates

#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://frozengarlic.wordpress.com/2023/08/31/terry-gou-enters-the-race/

Full video of DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te"s (賴清德) press conference for international media in Taipei on 25 August

(Opening statement in English, Q&A in Mandarin with English translation)
video by @taiwanreporter

#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZmTMBCoC3s

2000 was the only presidential election in Taiwan where three candidates were competitive. In 2016 the two pan-blue candidates were just competing for the same pool of votes. The 2024 election is likely to have a similar result to 2016.

Hence, pan-blue candidates won't be competing to beat the DPP. They will actually be competing with each other to attract the largest share of votes from pan-blue voters. (2/2)

#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

In Taiwan's presidential elections where there has been a competitive third party candidate the results were as follows. (1/2)

2016
Tsai (DPP) 56%
Chu (KMT) 31%
Soong (PFP) 13%

2000
Chen (DPP) 39%
Soong (Ind) 37%
Chan (KMT) 23%

*I've left out 1996. DPP weren't competitive in that election. 2020 also omitted as Soong's vote was only 4%.

#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

Interview with Taiwan's vice president and DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te. He clearly states that Taiwan is already an independent country and its government is committed to maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait

#Taiwan #TaiwanElection #TaiwanIsACountry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkI9OMs7tWY

Frozen Garlic's analysis of Taiwan's presidential race if Terry Gou enters as a fourth candidate.

"If Terry Gou enters the race, he will draw most of his support from the blue side of the spectrum. He will hurt Ko the most and then Hou."

#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://wp.me/pONaH-R6

Frozen Garlic discusses why KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) has failed to translate his popularity as a mayor to the presidential campaign

#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://frozengarlic.wordpress.com/2023/07/23/a-few-thoughts-about-hou-yu-ih/

Good analysis of the current state of Taiwan's presidential race by Jonathan Sullivan. He considers how the KMT have to manage the ambitions of Terry Gou and the ways Hou and Ko could cooperate with Gou to become more competitive

#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://taiwaninsight.org/2023/06/07/the-fluidity-of-the-presidential-field/

A good summary of recent polls in Taiwan's presidential race. Interesting to note that DPP has lost support from young voters and their support has shifted to the TPP.

#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://globaltaiwan.org/2023/05/three-domestic-political-variables-to-watch-in-taiwans-2024-presidential-election/

A good assessment of Taiwan's presidential race by @mhar4 eight months out from polling day

#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/get-ready-to-meet-the-next-president-of-taiwan/

Mayor of New Taipei City Hou You-yi (侯友宜) will be the KMT's candidate in the presidential election

#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://open.substack.com/pub/chinadiction/p/hou-not-gou?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android

The DPP has officially selected Vice President Lai Ching-te as its candidate for the 2024 presidential election

#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://youtu.be/ym-dKANI61g

Frozen Garlic looks at the latest opinion polls in Taiwan. Support for the KMT has decreased since last year's local elections while the DPP's position has improved
#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://frozengarlic.wordpress.com/2023/04/10/public-opinion-since-the-nov-election/

Chiayi Mayor Huang Min-hui (黃敏惠) of the KMT has won re-election with 63.8% of the vote
#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202212180007

Chiayi Mayor Huang Min-hui (黃敏惠) of the KMT has won re-election with 63.8% of the vote
#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202212180007

Shih Fang-long (施芳瓏) argues that Taiwan's two party system is developing so that the DPP dominate at the national level while the KMT dominate at the local level. I think it will take a few more electoral cycles to determine if this really is the case.
#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2022/12/15/2003790734

Shih Fang-long (施芳瓏) argues that Taiwan's two party system is developing so that the DPP dominate at the national level while the KMT dominate at the local level. I think it will take a few more electoral cycles to determine if this really is the case.
#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2022/12/15/2003790734

Another article in the series about Taiwan's local elections by students at NCCU. This one provides a comparison of presidential and mayoral election results from 2012 to 2022.
#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3348

Analysis of Taiwan's local election results by @mhar4

"The Taiwanese never quite respond to China in ways that international observers expect, and its domestic politics and history are usually the missing data points in international analyses."
#Taiwan #TaiwanElection

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-real-significance-of-taiwans-9-in-1-elections/