Interesting feature in the ICON model on Thursday night over the North Sea. It looks like the model simulates a tropical-like warm seclusion, a polar low. It is a mesoscale phenomenon, characterized by a warm, nearly cloud-free core and spirals of high-level convection around it.
@kachelmannwetter

#Weather
#Synoptic
#Meteorology
#WeatherModels

Not only the IFS from ECMWF expects this cold air outbreak, but also the ICON model. Furthermore, the #WeatherModels indicate partly heavy #Snowfall in #Ukraine. One can only hope that appropriate preparations will be made.

This will be an exceptionally warm turn of the year in parts of western and central #Europe. The Extreme Forecast Index of the IFS is already going through the roof. The statistical post-processed MOS-MIX of the @DeutscherWetterdienst indicates, for example, maximum #temperatures of 18 to 19 degrees for the Upper Rhine, both for #NewYearsEve and for #NewYearsDay. For this region, it would be the warmest New Year's Eve ever.

#Weather
#Forecast
#WeatherModels
#Silvester

The #ArcticBlast over #NorthAmerica is truly extreme. At the 850-hPa level, we are in the range of the 0.5% percentile of the climate mean, if you look at the GFS analysis. At the 2m #Temperature, the IFS forecasts a -6 to -10 degree deviation from 1% (!) percentile for today (12Z). These are anomalies we never see in Europe and which I have rarely seen for North America.

arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/models
https://www.ecmwf.int/

#Weather
#WeatherExtremes
#ArcticOutbreak
#WeatherModels

The #ArcticBlast over #NorthAmerica is truly extreme. At the 850-hPa level, we are in the range of the 0.5% percentile of the climate mean, if you look at the GFS analysis. At the 2m #Temperature, the IFS forecasts a -6 to -10 degree deviation from 1% (!) percentile for today (12Z). These are anomalies we never see in Europe and which I have rarely seen for North America.

arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/models
https://www.ecmwf.int/

#Weather
#WeatherExtremes
#ArcticOutbreak
#WeatherModels

How uncertain can the medium-term #Weather trend be? GFS and IFS with diametrical geopotential and temperature pattern after the Christmas holidays over #Europe.

Charts: http://wxcharts.com/

#SynopticMeteorology
#Forecast
#WeatherModels

How uncertain can the medium-term #Weather trend be? GFS and IFS with diametrical geopotential and temperature pattern after the Christmas holidays over #Europe.

#SynopticMeteorology
#Forecast
#WeatherModels

As a result, the #IFS of the #ECMWF in Reading in particular expects a significant increase in #snow depth and coverage within the next 10 days.

#WeatherModels
#WinterWeather

The vertical resolution increase primarily affects the upper troposphere and stratosphere because this turned out to maximize the benefit for the forecast quality.
Likewise, the horizontal resolution upgrade is restricted to the EPS because it currently operates in a resolution range where an increase immediately results in a better forecast quality, whereas the potential benefit in the deterministic system would be much smaller.

#Weathermodels
#Modelling
#Meteorology

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Today: Resolution upgrade for the @deutscherwetterdienst #ICON model!

ICON-EPS: 40 km -> 26 km (horizontal)
ICON-EU-EPS: 20 km -> 13 km (horizontal)
ICON: 90 layers -> 120 layers (vertical)
ICON-EU: 60 layers -> 74 layers (vertical)

#Weathermodels
#Meteorology
#Weatherforecast

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