We have 3 areas of interest globally right now with 07P aka Subtropical Depression Hale which looking at the GFS ensemble looks like it will head in a southward direction and potentially make landfall on the North Island of Aotearoa (New Zealand)

97W is in the North West Pacific near the Philippine, there are a few tracks on the GFS Ensemble showing it might get down to 990-1000hPa which from what I have seen in the past usually corelates with winds of Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression or rarely very low end Typhoon

Invest 95P has a high degree of spread in the models but doesn't appear at this stage that it will get anymore intense with exception of some southward tracks where the Deepening of the Low could suggest Extratropical transisition

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So Less of the runs of the GFS now show Ellie moving back over water however quite a few do have Ellie intensify again and may be close enough to the warm water to reintensify back into a Tropical CycloneWhile Uncommon Tropical Cyclones have been known to form or intensify with proximity to water without having their center over the water this might be another case of the Brown Ocean Effect where onshore rains take heat from the warm soil and the storm feeds off of that as well as get some of the energy directly from the portion sitting over water

92P is back on the radar and the GFS ensemble has hunts of some trajectories where the Low deepened however some of those look like they might occur in latitudes that suggest intensification through a Extratropical Transition though one track has it hitting the northern most tip of Aotearoa (New Zealand)

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The Tropics have gone rather quiet but it appears Ellie which we had written off as a short lived Tropical Cyclone has maintained closed isobars and may move back over water and reintensify back into a Tropical Cyclone

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So things may start getting quiet with Invest 98B likely to remain fairly disorganised as it crosses into the Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Darian is quite far from land and looks as though it will die at sea but for the time being remains a fairly powerful Tropical Cyclone

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Invest 98B looks as though it won't have any significant development anytime soon and will cross into the Arabian Sea

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie is now a disorganised depression over Central Australia and is unlikely to move back over water suitable for Tropical Cyclogenesis

Severe Tropical Cyclone Darian is still a very intense Tropical Cyclone out at Sea however it appears it will die at sea without significantly impacting land.

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So right now there are 3 Areas to watch when it comes to Tropical Cyclones, Ellie made landfall should be weakening now as it heads inland but still poses wind and flooding risk but as it dies out rainfall will become the bigger issue

Severe Tropical Cyclone Darian looks as if it will die at sea without impacting land however it is a very powerful TC with 100kt (185km/h or 115mph) sustained winds a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone on ATCS, Intense Tropical Cyclone (Meteo France Tropical Cyclone Scale), or Category 3 Major Hurricane (Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

3rd there is Tropical Invest 98B in the Bay of Bengal which the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has at Low liklihood of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the next 24 hours

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So it looks like Tropical Cyclone Ellie has already made landfall between Dally River Mouth and Wadeye as a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone (Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale) and Tropical Storm (Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

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Oh it is in the Southern Hemisphere I must be tired since I didn't even notice direction of spin, and it looks quite powerful it is a Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone on the Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale or Category 4 Major Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Extract from Aus BoM Technical Bulletin Forecast:Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 21/1200: 13.7S 89.7E: 035 (060): 120 (220): 919 +12: 21/1800: 13.6S 88.9E: 040 (080): 120 (220): 920 +18: 22/0000: 13.4S 88.0E: 045 (090): 120 (220): 920 +24: 22/0600: 13.2S 87.2E: 050 (090): 115 (215): 926 +36: 22/1800: 13.1S 85.4E: 040 (075): 110 (205): 932 +48: 23/0600: 13.0S 83.6E: 050 (095): 110 (205): 932 +60: 23/1800: 13.0S 82.1E: 065 (125): 120 (220): 918 +72: 24/0600: 13.2S 81.1E: 085 (160): 120 (220): 918 +96: 25/0600: 14.4S 80.8E: 110 (205): 100 (185): 941 +120: 26/0600: 15.7S 81.2E: 130 (245): 070 (130): 969

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Looks like Tropical Cyclone Eloise has made landfall. - Haley

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Track Map for Tropical Low in the Gulf of Carpentaria. It is expected to make Category 1 Tropical Cyclone (ATCF) intensity before landfall equivalent to Tropical Storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

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- Haley

Severe Weather Update: tropical lows bring heavy rain, strong winds to northern WA, 10 December 2020 - Australian Bureau of Meteorology -- https://youtu.be/jCRzkcPc7e8

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- h

June 30 Hurricane Outlook and Discussion: Possible Development off Southeast Coast to Start July? ― hurricanetrack ― https://youtu.be/usfwJKPiUPg

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India and Bangladesh brace for cyclone Amphan ― DW News ― https://youtu.be/K75OUuJ5uEA

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Tropical Cyclone forming near Madagascar - 8am MUT March 13, 2020 ― Force Thirteen ― https://youtu.be/L_s9Z-m5I1M

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TC Esther (Cat 1) forms Gulf of Carpentaria Australia 07:04 AEST Monday 24Feb ― Force Thirteen ― https://youtu.be/p9DAXP93kxU

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🌀 Tropical Depression 99P [10U] has formed in the Gulf of Carpenteria.

Attachment 1 ― Official Track and Intensity Forecast Graphic from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and TCWC Darwin.

Attachment 2 ― The Canadian CMC Ensemble (GEPS) for mean sea level pressure (in hPa or mb [they're identical units].

Attachment 3 ― The Global Forecast System ensemble (GEFS) for mean sea level pressure (in hPa or mb).

Official Graphic ― http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
Levi Cowan's Tropical Tidbits ― https://tropicaltidbits.com/

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Two very interesting features on the GFS run:

Attachment 1 ― GFS Model 850hPa Cyclonic Vorticity (shading), wind direction and speed (windbarbs), and Mean Sea Level Pressure (isobars) at forecast hour 252 showing a powerful cyclonic feature in the Gulf of Carpenteria.

Attachment 2 ― GFS Model 850hPa Cyclonic Vorticity (shading), wind direction and speed (windbarbs), and Mean Sea Level Pressure (isobars) at forecast hour 312 showing a potential Fujiwara interaction between two Cyclonic vortices in the South Pacific

Both are quite a way out but interesting none the less.

Model Graphics thanks to Levi Cowan's Tropical Tidbits. https://tropicaltidbits.com/

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🌀 Ex-Tropical Cyclone Uesi has passed me and has now started Extratropical Transition, it is currently a Subtropical Cyclone with Category 2 winds still, it'll probably be fairly powerful system when it reaches New Zealand.

It annoys me that BoM calls Subtropical Cyclones of Tropical Cyclone origin "Tropical Lows" instead of just Subtropical Cyclone, with categories because it is still got that intensity, and really Subtropical Cyclones are still special case TCs.

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🌀 Tropical Cyclone Uesi is pushing quite a bit of warm humid air from the coral sea on shore here, it hasn't stopped raining all day, and currently pissing down.

It's closest approach to where I live should be tomorrow, though it depends how far west it tracks with the cone of uncertainty, it may track closer to the coast than current forecast, right now it is still far from shore, to my East.

All ensemble members of the big models have stop showing landfalls close to me, with only one landfall far to the south in the Canadian model.

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Attachment 1 ― 🌀 Tropical Cyclone Uesi on Hiwiwari 8 Visible Composite Imagery with red line showing the general direction it is forecasted to take, the bifurcation is the cone of uncertainty as it approaches the coast (it may or may not make landfall but it is likely to closely aproach the coast), Uesi is current a Canegory 2 Tropical Cyclone on the Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale

Purple Circle over cloud mass over WA is 🌀 Ex-Tropical Cyclone Damien which made landfall on the 8th as a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone (ATCS).

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