@rahmstorf

Apropos verschobene Klimazonen:

Klimatische Zwillingsstädte in Europa https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/klimatische-zwillingsstaedte-in-europa

#agw #climatechange

This weather is scary. September is supposed to be cool and dry. Not like a summer's day in Marbella.
#climatechange #agw

Good Morning, all

If only acceptance that the world faces a clear and present #ClimateEmergency would spread among Conservatives like wildfire...

#OilySunak
#Tories #Nastiz #ToriesOut
#ACC #AGW #GeneralElectionNow!

As heat records break, the climate movement has the right answers – but the words are all wrong | Jonathan Freedland | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/14/big-oil-climate-crisis-fossil-fuel-public

#agw #climatebreakdown #climatecollapse

@Thea_gruen @rahmstorf

Ja, daß es wie im Winter sei und man mit Schneepflügen in Reutlingen aufräumen musste, das wird von Klimaerwärmungs-Ignoranten gerne angeführt als Argument gegen #agw. Daß bisher Hagel nur im Sommer und nicht im Winter auftritt (mal schauen, wie lange noch), ist diesen Leuten wohl nicht klar. Ich dachte, sowas lernt man schon in der Grundschule... also Physik muss man dafür nicht studieren.

Look at the crisis in the Amazon and understand the stakes: we’re battling for life itself

Guardian - Mark Ruffalo

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/06/amazon-mark-ruffalo-indigenous-peoples-world-rainforest-life

#agw #amazon

@sarfeo

Yep. It is really bad. I think back thirty years....

“The American way of life is not up for negotiations. Period.” — GHW Bush, in the run-up to the Rio summit, 1992

...and indeed, Nature seems completely disinterested in negotiating with us!

It is delivering now what we idiots have spent a century asking for.

There are losses coming that we will struggle to understand.

We must now do what we can, in these awful times.

Be kind. Work together.

#agw #climatebreakdown

Holler if you have an idea how catastrophic the next millennia will be if we don't stop this madness much much faster than "economically feasible" for shortterm stockholder gain.

#agw #climatebreakdown

@rahmstorf Danke für den Artikel-Link. Ich bin erstaunt, daß ich den Link vorhin in einem Blog verlinkt fand, der die letzten Jahre immer nur #agw-Leugner-Artikel verlinkt hatte. Ich hatte mit dem Blogbetreiber (emer. Wirtschafts-Prof.) schon hitzige Mail-Debatten, die aber zu nichts führten. Die in dem Blog aufgeworfenen Fragen zu Ihrem neuen Artikel waren wieder ähnlich. Nur immerhin wurde diesmal kein Schwurbler verlinkt, sondern Ihr Artikel. Keine Ahnung, ob das ein Fortschritt ist...?

"Deadly global heatwaves undeniably result of climate crisis, scientists show" - "The human-caused climate crisis is undeniably to blame for the deadly heatwaves that have struck Europe and the US in recent weeks, scientists have shown.

Both would have been virtually impossible without the global heating driven by burning fossil fuels, their analysis found. Another searing heatwave, in China, was made 50 times more likely by the climate crisis.

The results make it crystal clear that human-caused global heating is already destroying lives and livelihoods across the world, making the need to cut emissions ever more urgent. Such brutal heatwaves are no longer rare, the scientists said, and will worsen as emissions continue to rise. If the world heats by 2C, they will happen every two to five years.

A report by leading climate scientists in March endorsed by the world’s governments, said: “There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all.” The latest analysis demonstrated how rapidly that window is closing.

Earlier in July, temperature records were shattered in many places in southern Europe, the western US and Mexico and China, bringing heat-related deaths and wildfires. The first week of July saw the hottest global temperatures in history. The researchers found that greenhouse gas emissions made the heatwaves 2.5C hotter in Europe, 2C hotter in North America, and 1C hotter in China than if humankind had not changed the global atmosphere."

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/jul/25/deadly-global-heatwaves-undeniably-result-of-climate-crisis-scientists-attribution

#Heatwaves #Heatwave #Hitze #Hitzewelle #ClimateCrisis #Climate #Klimakrise #Klima #GlobalWarming #AGW #GHG

@rahmstorf

Isn't the "greenland was green" something, which the #agw deniers claimed, when telling us, the warming is no problem?

OK, different warming speeds in the past and now are a problem. Maybe also different warming values to be expected now.

But I expect the agw deniers hooking on to this now, and somehow I think some explanations/clarifications would make sense here.

How is the "greenland was green in the past" from agw deniers and "greenland was green" from scientists different?

It's a race between #AGW, #nuclearmeltdown, and new #COVID-19 strains.

No word on which team is winning.

https://blog.ucsusa.org/edwin-lyman/an-attack-on-the-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-could-still-be-catastrophic/

"Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence - Article in Earth System Science Data (ESSD), 08 June 2023
...
"The indicators show that human-induced warming reached 1.14 [0.9 to 1.4] ∘C averaged over the 2013–2022 decade and 1.26 [1.0 to 1.6] ∘C in 2022. Over the 2013–2022 period, human-induced warming has been increasing at an unprecedented rate of over 0.2 ∘C per decade. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 54 ± 5.3 GtCO2e over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that increases in greenhouse gas emissions have slowed, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for human influence on climate."

https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/2295/2023/

#CO2 #ClimateCrisis #Climate #Klimakrise #Klima #IPCC #GlobalWarming #AGW #AnthropgenicGlobalWarming #GHG #Emissions #GHGEmissions

Do you think the the #IPCC and #climate scientists' predictions of #GlobalWarming are far too conservative? Are they fearful of being too alarmist, when alarmed is precisely what we need to be? Always erring on the side of "least drama"?

"Over the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of #anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of ‘‘alarmism’’: of over-interpreting or overreacting to evidence of human impacts on the climate system. However, the available evidence suggests that scientists have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change. In particular, we discuss recent studies showing that at least some of the key attributes of global warming from increased atmospheric greenhouse gases have been under-predicted, particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science, by Working Group I. We also note the less frequent manifestation of over-prediction of key characteristics of climate in such assessments. We suggest, therefore, that scientists are biased not toward alarmism but rather the reverse: toward cautious estimates, where we define caution as erring on the side of less rather than more alarming predictions. We call this tendency ‘‘erring on the side of least drama (ESLD).’’
- Keynyn Brysse, Naomi Oreskes, Jessica O’Reilly, Michael Oppenheimer,
Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?,
Global Environmental Change,
Volume 23, Issue 1,
2013,
Pages 327-337,
ISSN 0959-3780,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008.

https://sci-hub.hkvisa.net/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008

#ClimateCrisis #AGW #AnthropogenicGlobalWarming #GlobalWarming #Climate #Klima #KlimaKrise #Erderwärmung

Notice, the heat seam in SOME places, but not all, tracks the river-of-snot atmospheric river effect. This effect is very very low wind, like still bubbles, or a loose chain of gooey low-win bubble space. Studying #AGW truly makes you feel like you are engaging in demonology, sometimes.

The current windy eye is a good subject for my half-scientific #meteorology observations.

#AGW phenomena experienced often have four big themes:

- creepily symmetric eyes (Ian, this thing over the lakes now)

- creepy multiocular/bifurcated eyes

- atmospheric rivers involved

- "heat seams", charged up points of contact between (in the US) gulf vs Colorado heat wars, often going from MX gulf oil country towards Rust Belt in a relatively straight line

This is 1 and 3, I think:

The scale of the devastation in Little Rock is such that speculating on an active God dispensing climate justice in the right voting base has gone from tacky to horrifyingly sadistic, so that theme is now retired.

I first saw the reality of #AGW #ClimateChange through an "unreal" medium, earth.null.school, when I studied it a ton four years ago. I studied Ukraine a bunch in the same time. I'm Superman without the super powers, I see the disaster, but can't fly or do anything else.

The #IPCC #AR6 "Longer Report" is now available for download on the IPCC website (link below). Here is the frightening summary -

"Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850-1900 in 2011-2020. Global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase over 2010-2019, with unequal historical and ongoing contributions arising from unsustainable energy use, land use and land-use change, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production across regions, between and within countries, and between individuals (high confidence). Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. This has led to widespread adverse impacts on food and water security, human health and on economies and society and related losses and damages6 to nature and people (high confidence). Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected (high confidence)."

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/

#Climate #ClimateCrisis #ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Klima #Klimakrise
#Erderwarmung #GHG #GreenhouseGases #AGW #HumanCausedGlobalWarming #Emissions #FossilFuels

Here are the highlights (lowlights) of the #AR6 #IPCC report released today (20. March 2023). At this point, the "Summary for Policymakers" is only available; the longer (full) report is "coming soon" according to the IPCC website. You can download the Summary from the link below.

Observed Warming and its Causes - Global surface temperature was 1.09°C [0.95°C–1.20°C] higher in 2011–2020 than 1850–19006, with larger increases over land (1.59°C [1.34°C–1.83°C]) than over the ocean (0.88°C [0.68°C–1.01°C]).

- Global surface temperature in the first two decades of the 21st century (2001-2020) was 0.99 [0.84 to 1.10]°C higher than 1850-1900. Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2000 years (high confidence).

- The likely range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 2010–
13 2019 is 0.8°C–1.3°C, with a best estimate of 1.07°C. Over this period, it is likely that well-mixed greenhouse gases (#GHGs) contributed a warming of 1.0°C–2.0°C, and other human drivers (principally aerosols) contributed a cooling of 0.0°C–0.8°C, natural (solar and volcanic) drivers changed global surface temperature by –0.1°C to +0.1°C, and internal variability changed it by –0.2°C to +0.2°C.

- Observed increases in well-mixed #GHG concentrations since around 1750 are unequivocally caused by GHG emissions from human activities over this period. Historical cumulative net #CO2 #emissions from 1850 to 2019 were 2400±240 GtCO2 of which more than half (58%) occurred between 1850 and 1989, and about 42% occurred between 1990 and 2019 (high confidence). In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations (410 parts per
22 million) were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years (high confidence), and concentrations of methane
23 (1866 parts per billion) and nitrous oxide (332 parts per billion) were higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years (very high confidence).

- Global net anthropogenic GHG emissions have been estimated to be 59±6.6 GtCO2-eq9 in 2019, about 12% (6.5 GtCO2-eq) higher than in 2010 and 54% (21 GtCO2-eq) higher than in 1990, with the largest share and growth in gross GHG emissions occurring in CO2 from fossil fuels combustion and industrial processes (CO2-FFI) followed by methane, whereas the highest relative growth occurred in fluorinated gases (F-gases),
30 starting from low levels in 1990. Average annual GHG emissions during 2010-2019 were higher than in any previous decade on record, while the rate of growth between 2010 and 2019 (1.3% year-1) was lower than that
32 between 2000 and 2009 (2.1% year-1). In 2019, approximately 79% of global GHG emissions came from the sectors of energy, industry, transport and buildings together and 22%10 from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). Emissions reductions in CO2-FFI due to improvements in energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy, have been less than emissions increases from rising global activity levels in industry, energy supply, transport, agriculture and buildings. (high confidence)

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/

video here - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/

#Climate #ClimateCrisis #GHG #CO2 #Methane #FossilFuels #Earth #GlobalWarming #AGW #AnthropogenicGlobalWarming

This coming #cawx #orwx california storm - insofar as it is a strange and powerful thing - is a straightforward product of #AGW #climatechange global warming. The high pressure system that squeezes everything into the core part of CA in a bizarre way is fueled by tropical heat, a few hundred miles east of baja. Not hard to see!