https://bigthink.com/13-8/qbism-quantum-physics/

A post promising a series about #quantum #bayesianism. So far so good, this is worth reading to see where it's headed.

Unsettled Thoughts - A Theory of Degrees of Rationality
https://global.oup.com/academic/product/unsettled-thoughts-9780198833710?cc=us&lang=en&#

Presents the first rigorously developed view of degrees of epistemic rationality.

#book #epistemology #rationality #psychology #approximate_coherence #credences #bayesianism #philosophy

Beyond the applied ML context, I see a lot of connections to the limitations of #utilitarianism, utilitarian aggregation / #populationEthics, #rationality, #longtermism, subjective #Bayesianism, etc. But would anyone read any of that?

The No Free lunch theorem implies that we need #Bayesianism

Ok, let me explain. The fact that there cannot be a general purpose algorithm for everything means that we need a prior to solve a certain problem.

Imagine for example that you want to deblur an image, the more a priori you have, the best you will perform. Is it a face or some text? what is the font? what is the language? what is the type or blur (Gaussian kernel, pixelisation, etc)?

#NFL #AI #MachineLearning #Bayes

#introduction

I'm a #mathematician by training and a #datascientist by trade. Lifting in #munich, #germany. I am a husband to my beautiful wife and father of two amazing children.

I studied math (and some physics) at #LMUMünchen.

I used to work for #mckinsey and #airbnb

I'm interested in #boardgames, #philosophyofscience, #epistemology, #bayesianism, #hierarchicalmodels, #forecasting, #ManyWorlds, #machinelearning, #artificialintelligence, #emergence, #categorytheory

A question for epistemologists! When Bayesians talk about degrees of belief, do they have any resources to explain why a 0.5 degree of belief ('no idea whether it's true or false') is a worse epistemic position to be in than a 0.99 or 0.01 degree of belief ('very confident about my judgement')? My sense is that the answer is 'no', and that Bayesian epistemology turns inquiry into mechanical rule-following rather than a goal-directed rational process. #Bayesianism #Philosophy #Epistemology

Bayes-Ball! ⚾

:arxiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1301.7412

Check out this paper on belief networks with the catchiest title I've ever seen

#Paper #Bayes #bayesianism #PaperThread #BeliefNetworks

🤔 Bayesian Inference (on graphical models) is NP-hard.

But even worst! every epsilon-approximation is also NP-hard.

Which means that the worst case scenario is (almost certainly) exponential.

Good news is, there are some special cases where approximation or exact inference can be performed efficiently.

📘 Check out more in "Probabilistic Graphical Models: Principles and Technique" by Daphne Koller and Nir Friedman

#Bayes #bayesianism #MachineLearning #AI #ML #BayesianInference #Inference

Do you know Judea Pearl?

He bootstrapped the probabilistic approach to IA in his 1988 book
📘 "Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems"

He also invented Bayesian Networks and contributed greatly to causality.

Most famous for Pearl's Calculus and the do operator.

🏆 Turing award "for fundamental contributions to artificial intelligence through the development of a calculus for probabilistic and causal reasoning"

#uncertainty #bayes #bayesianism #IA #ML #MachineLearning #researcher

#AlisonGopnik - What is #Causation ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2ZKgiWM3JM&ab_channel=CloserToTruth

#Philosophy #Science #LawsOfPhysics #LawsOfNature #Correlation #PhilosophyOfScience #Probability #BayesianInference #Bayesianism