I dug into how national CO2 emissions are calculated based on this paper: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1667/2021/ as this is what Global Carbon Budget is based on.

1/4

#ClimateChange #CarbonBudget

So, what can do to meet the deadlines that the #CarbonBudget imposes? We all have to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible and @hausfath has provided us with trajectories for us to help make our plans to keep #GlobalWarming below the even more catastrophic levels of 1.5 or 2.0 °C. https://theclimatebrink.substack.com/p/the-rapidly-shrinking-carbon-budget

Basically, net-zero by:

2030 for 66% chance to stay under 1.5

2035 for 50% chance to under 1.5

2069 for 66% chance to stay under 2.0

2035 for 50% chance to under 2.0

The #CarbonBudget is an estimate of how much time (based on emission rates) before we cause #GlobalWarming to exceed certain "targets".

The indicators show that human induced warming reached 1.14 °C over the 2013-2022 period and 1.26 °C in 2022...This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 57 ± 5.6 GtCO2e over the last decade...Despite this, there are signs that emission levels are starting to stabilize... https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2023-166/essd-2023-166.pdf

"Even if #EcoTerrorists existed in 2023 (& they don't) the last thing ANY climate person would do is light a forest on fire. Climate folks know about the #CarbonBudget & how #ForestFires are a force multiplier. Burning forests makes the entire #ClimateEmergency worse, faster."

Podcast - Bragg Creek Bushwhack & the Imaginary Arsonists: https://www.podcastics.com/episode/243873/link/

#abpoli #cdnpoli #ClimateEmergency #ClimateChange #Wildfire

If #EcoTerrorists existed in 2023 (& they don't) one thing you could bet your entire life on is the last thing ANYBODY that cares about climate would do is light a forest on fire. We're the people trying to tell YOU about things like the #CarbonBudget.

/5

#cdnpoli #abpoli #Wildfires #Smoky #Alberta #yyc #bcpoli #ClimateCrisis #Denialism #ClimateChange

https://youtu.be/jSzl-WfBajs

@simon_brooke @W_Lucht @rahmstorf Simon, The odds of staying within 1.5 degrees are close to zero. We need to firstly focus on continuing to slow and eventually stop growth in emissions. Net zero is bullsh*t .. reducing emissions faster and faster is then the next step. Growth in renewables , then real energy reduction and a economy with pulse patten rather than exponential endless growth in resources utilisation. Pace yourself, those with trillions of vested interest aren’t going to let go easily… sigh I started banging on about this stuff back in the 1980’s . If was easy something would have been done by now.💪
#climate #decarbonization #CarbonBudget #ClimateMigration

@W_Lucht @rahmstorf
𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝘂𝗱𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟱𝟰𝗴𝘁 𝗽𝗮
17 % 33 % 50 % 67 % 83 %. Likelihood of keeping global warming in limit.
9.3 5.6 4.6 2.8 1.9yrs Limit warming to 𝟏.𝟓 ∘𝐂 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐀𝐑𝟔 𝐖𝐆𝐈
20.4 14.8 11.1 9.3 6.5yrs Limit warming to 𝟏.𝟕 ∘𝐂 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐀𝐑𝟔 𝐖𝐆𝐈
37.0 26.9 21.3 17.6 14.8yrs Limit warming to 2.0 𝐂 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐀𝐑𝟔 𝐖𝐆𝐈

Using warming update (2013–2022) (best estimate)
#ClimateDiary #CarbonBudget #climate #ClimateMigration
Data converted to years by M.Petter using budgets sourced from
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/2295/2023/#section8
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence,
Forster, P. M., et al
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023.

Die TAZ liegt falsch!
Lieber @rahmstorf, liebe alle #Klima besorgten.
Die #TAZ publiziert auf ihrer Homepage eine CO2 Uhr*, welche anzeigt, dass wir angeblich noch 6 Jahre Zeit hätten bis das #carbonbudget für das 1.5 Grad Ziel erreicht sei.
Diese Berechnungen sind falsch** und ich habe die TAZ bereits darauf hingewiesen - wir haben VIEL WENIGER ZEIT.
Ich habe die TAZ kontaktiert und wurde damit abgespeist, dass die Berechnungen vom Mercator Institut durchgeführt werden***.
Die TAZ ist ein vielgelesenes Medium insbesondere bei gesellschaftlich engagierten Menschen. Eine dermaßen falsche Information könnte den Eindruck erwecken, wir hätten viel mehr Zeit als eigentlich verfügbar! Bitte kontaktiert die TAZ ebenfalls - teilt diesen Post - und kommentiert wenn ihr mehr/bessere Info habt. Danke!

*https://taz.de/Neue-CO2-Uhr-auf-tazde/!5810221/
**Berechnungsgrundlage der Uhr: Ausstoß 42 Gt CO2 global/Jahr. In Wahrheit 59 Gt CO2 global/Jahr (Quelle: IPCC, 2019)
***https://www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/data/clock/carbon_clock.htm
#klimakatastrophe #carbonbudget

@tazgetroete

Paper: Models have a warped perspective thanks to our massive use of nitrogen fertilizers.

This has signficant C budget planning implications.

"... a TBM that does not represent coupled C and N cycling cannot realistically represent the combined influences of multiple global change drivers, overestimating CO2 fertilization as the trajectories of CO2, N deposition, and N fertilization diverge over the 21st century."

#CarbonBudget
#CarbonSequestration
#ClimateChange

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL102618?af=R

Darn, I was hoping to have ELoon's toy blow up today. Maybe tomorrow.

But seriously, I wish that more people would talk about our #CarbonBudget when they talk about shit like that.

New oilfield in the North Sea would blow the UK’s carbon budget | Climate crisis | The Guardian
#Oil
#FossilFuels
#CarbonBudget
#UK
#ClimateCrisis
#NewOilField
#Rosebank
#NetZero
#Miliband
#Shapps
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/01/new-oilfield-in-the-north-sea-would-blow-the-uks-carbon-budget

@dyrehaugen @hausfath
When you open the doi instead of Zeke's URL you get redirected to open access https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(23)00001-6?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS2542435123000016%3Fshowall%3Dtrue

But I have a hunch this is far below Watari et al 2020. Which is really worth the read bc in their metastudy of 88 papers, they considered not only #electricity generation but #grid expansion and wider RE tech, as well, plus: the growing general demand for 48 #metals: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344919305750

We need to do this, no matter what. But if we have to wait until #mining industry takes new sites online, every month wait time costs 1% of a 1.5ºC #CarbonBudget with merely 50% chance. Every month. 1%.

So we can't wait. We need to #ration everything like England did 1939-56 until the projects are finished.

Het Carbon Budget voor Nederland (de hoeveelheid broeikasgassen die we nog mogen uitstoten om klimaatdoelen te halen) is volgens dit rapport 0. Nul. Zero. Nada. Geen budget meer. Dus per direct stoppen met de uitstoot van broeikasgassen om als land een eerlijke en rechtvaardige bijdrage te leveren aan het tegengaan van verdere opwarming van de aarde. https://newclimate.org/resources/publications/what-is-a-fair-emissions-budget-for-the-netherlands Ik vind dit best schokkend... #klimaatverandering #fairshare #climatejustice #carbonbudget

#EV #batteries require lots of materials. It is not only for the battery chemistry, but also #aluminium for the casing. The demand could easily outstrip today's production capacity. If produced with #coalpower in #China, that alone can use up transportation's #carbonbudget. #NoPlaceToHide.

Cost is not the main challenge, #CO2 is. Zero-emission vehicles require zero-emission energy systems also for the production of cars.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106827

#EV #batteries require lots of materials. It is not only for the battery chemistry, but also #aluminium for the casing. The demand could easily outstrip today's production capacity. If produced with #coalpower in #China, that alone can use up transportation's #carbonbudget. #NoPlaceToHide.

Cost is not the main challenge, #CO2 is. Zero-emission vehicles require zero-emission energy systems also for the production of cars.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106827

#carboncredits but directly tied to the global #carbonbudget so that excess emissions can’t just be magically financed away into a future with working negative emissions technology

Four years, one month. #carbonbudget

Suggestion: ask the people you meet today whether they know how much carbonbudget we have left and how will we cope after we have used it?

Tänään voisikin kysyä kaikilta tapaamiltaan ihmisiltä tietävätkö he kuinka kauan hiilibudjettia on vielä jäljellä ja miten toimitaan sitten kun se on käytetty.
#hiilibudjetti #carbonbudget #ilmasto https://finnwatch.org/fi/tutkimukset/1000-vaatebraendien-tieteeseen-perustuvissa-ilmastotavoitteissa-parannettavaa

Places for Everyone, week 3 – Carbon emissions | Steady State Manchester https://steadystatemanchester.net/2022/12/02/places-for-everyone-week-3-carbon-emissions/
#GreaterManchester #Planning #PlanningInspectorate #Manchester #CarbonEmissions #Buildings #CarbonBudget

Highly affluent consumers drive biophysical resource use (a) directly through high #consumption, (b) as members of powerful factions of the capitalist class and (c) through driving consumption norms across the population,”. The rich or merely affluent are actually the ones blowing through the world’s #carbonbudget. https://www-vox-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/21450911/climate-change-coronavirus-greta-thunberg-flying-degrowth