Benjamin Han · @BenjaminHan
477 followers · 1322 posts · Server sigmoid.social
Is it #causation, or #correlation?
Extreme #ElNiño #weather switched off South American's #carbon sink | Corporate | University of Leeds https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news-environment/news/article/5391/extreme-el-ni-o-weather-switched-off-south-american-s-carbon-sink
#causation #correlation #elnino #weather #carbon #ClimateCrisis #climatechange
Gerald · @gerald
352 followers · 285 posts · Server fediscience.org
Jim Donegan ✅ · @jimdonegan
1560 followers · 4688 posts · Server mastodon.scot
#ColinMcGinn - How Can #FreeWill Work?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZIdsrOg37Q&ab_channel=CloserToTruth
#Philosophy #PhilosophyOfScience #PhilosophyOfFreeWill #PhilosophyOfMind #Randomness #Determinism #Compatibilism #Blame #Responsibility #Morality #MentalCausation #Causation #CloserToTruth #RobertKuhn
#RobertKuhn #CloserToTruth #causation #mentalcausation #morality #responsibility #blame #Compatibilism #determinism #randomness #philosophyofmind #philosophyoffreewill #philosophyofscience #philosophy #freewill #colinmcginn
Léo Varnet · @leovarnet
658 followers · 495 posts · Server qoto.orgTired of these studies overstating the results by confusing #correlation and #causation. A recent #PNAS paper (co-authored by D. Kahneman!) starts with the question "can money buy happiness?"... and does no offer any evidence of a #causal relationship https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/08/01/studying-average-associations-between-income-and-survey-responses-on-happiness-be-careful-about-deterministic-and-causal-interpretations-that-are-not-supported-by-these-data/ #stats #statistics #correlationisnotcausation
#statistics #correlation #causation #pnas #causal #stats #correlationisnotcausation
Léo Varnet · @leovarnet
647 followers · 476 posts · Server qoto.orgTired of these studies overstating the results by confusing #correlation and #causation. A recent #PNAS paper (co-authored by D. Kahneman!) starts with the question "can money buy happiness?"... and do no offer any evidence of a #causal relationship https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/08/01/studying-average-associations-between-income-and-survey-responses-on-happiness-be-careful-about-deterministic-and-causal-interpretations-that-are-not-supported-by-these-data/ #stats #statistics #correlationisnotcausation
#correlation #stats #statistics #causation #pnas #causal #correlationisnotcausation
Mycotropic · @mycotropic
1063 followers · 3078 posts · Server geekdom.social@jessica if you mean using #MendelianRandomization to pretend your analysis can assess #Causation in a reproducible way then no, you should have used a different study design.
In the nicest possible way, if you're posting this because you're actually experiencing a crisis then I apologize for being flip and please tell me if I can help you in some way.
#mendelianrandomization #causation
Jim Donegan ✅ · @jimdonegan
1554 followers · 4624 posts · Server mastodon.scot
#ColinMcGinn - Why is There Anything at All?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EC6nUEUTGbA&ab_channel=CloserToTruth
#Philosophy #Metaphysics #Nothing #Nothingness #Existence #Being #ConcreteObject #ConcreteObjects #AbstractObjects #Cosmology #PhilosophyOfCosmology #Contingency #Causation #FirstCause #Necessity #CloserToTruth #RobertKuhn
#RobertKuhn #CloserToTruth #necessity #firstcause #causation #contingency #PhilosophyOfCosmology #cosmology #abstractobjects #concreteobjects #concreteobject #being #existence #nothingness #nothing #metaphysics #philosophy #colinmcginn
Mycotropic · @mycotropic
1027 followers · 2926 posts · Server geekdom.social@br00t4c #MTG will be asked to retake the #Causation course, it's pretty clear that her #DirectedAcyclicGraph (#DAG) has arrows pointing in the wrong directions!
#Epidemiology #StatisticalMethods
#mtg #causation #directedacyclicgraph #dag #epidemiology #statisticalmethods
Jim Donegan ✅ · @jimdonegan
1548 followers · 4613 posts · Server mastodon.scotAnd more fun, too. Philosophy of Mind is great. I am also very partial to reading a bit of #Hume on things like #Causation, #Morality, #Ethics, #Metaphysics...
#metaphysics #ethics #morality #causation #hume
Jim Donegan ✅ · @jimdonegan
1546 followers · 4605 posts · Server mastodon.scot#RobinLePoidevin - What's #Real About #Time?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzXL65c8js0&ab_channel=CloserToTruth
#Philosophy #PhilosophyOfTime #PhilosophyOfScience #Science #Future #Past #Present #Now #Time #TimesArrow #Entropy #Laws #LawsOfNature #LawsOfPhysics #SpaceTime #Determinism #Causation #Freedom #FreeWill #Asymmetry #BlockUniverse #GR #GeneralRelativity #CloserToTruth #RobertKuhn
#RobertKuhn #CloserToTruth #generalrelativity #gr #BlockUniverse #asymmetry #freewill #freedom #causation #determinism #spacetime #lawsofphysics #lawsofnature #laws #entropy #timesarrow #now #present #past #future #science #philosophyofscience #philosophyoftime #philosophy #time #real #robinlepoidevin
Jim Donegan ✅ · @jimdonegan
1543 followers · 4593 posts · Server mastodon.scot
#WillemDrees - Alternative Concepts of #God?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1mCR3gul84&ab_channel=CloserToTruth
#Philosophy #PhilosophyOfReligion #Religion #Theology #Theism #Causation #Contingency #Value #Ethics #Morality #Being #Existence #Idealism #Materialism #ConcreteObjects #CloserToTruth #RobertKuhn
#RobertKuhn #CloserToTruth #concreteobjects #materialism #idealism #existence #being #morality #ethics #value #contingency #causation #theism #theology #religion #philosophyofreligion #philosophy #god #willemdrees
Jim Donegan ✅ · @jimdonegan
1539 followers · 4562 posts · Server mastodon.scot#GeorgeEllis - What Is Strong #Emergence?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ7id-sjiuI&ab_channel=CloserToTruth
#Philosophyn #PhilosophyOfScience #Science #Physics #Causation #Realisation #Materialism #Idealism #Dualism #PropertyDualism #StrongEmergence #PhilosophyOfCosmology #Cosmology #Metaphysics #Evolution #BigBang #Inflation #CMB #CosmicMicrowaveBackground #Irreducibility #Reductionism #Emergentism #CloserToTruth #RobertKuhn
#RobertKuhn #CloserToTruth #emergentism #reductionism #irreducibility #cosmicmicrowavebackground #cmb #inflation #bigbang #evolution #metaphysics #cosmology #PhilosophyOfCosmology #StrongEmergence #propertydualism #dualism #idealism #materialism #realisation #causation #physics #science #philosophyofscience #philosophyn #emergence #georgeellis
Nick Byrd · @ByrdNick
882 followers · 490 posts · Server nerdculture.de
🤔 "causal information at decision time can lead to less accurate choices in domains that relate to existing knowledge".
Possible explanations: (a) fluency effect or (b) expertise reversal effect.
https://doi.org/10.1186/s41235-020-0206-z
#PhilosophyOfScience #PhilSci #xPhi #Epistemology #Causation #DecisionScience #cogSci
#philosophyofscience #philsci #xPhi #epistemology #causation #decisionscience #cogsci
Alun Kirby · @cyanotype
483 followers · 487 posts · Server zirk.us
The good people at the Centre for Philosophy of Memory are holding a workshop on causation in memory.
Do memory traces exist? How would / do they work? What about reconstructing memories? What do we need in order to remember something?
Excellent speakers.
No registration required.
FREE access via Zoom!!!
https://phil-mem.org/events/2023-causation.php
#philosophy #PhilosophyOfMemory #Causation #MemoryTraces #UnversiteGrenobleAlps #Engram #Memory #OnlineWorkshop
#philosophy #PhilosophyOfMemory #causation #memorytraces #unversitegrenoblealps #engram #memory #OnlineWorkshop
Mike Lensi · @philbro
58 followers · 253 posts · Server mstdn.social@seanmcarroll of all the work / papers mentioned in the podcast, I'm most excited to get to this one by Jessica Flack https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2016.0338
"Coarse-graining as a downward causation mechanism"
#emergence #CoarseGraining #causation #DownwardCausation #supervenience
#supervenience #downwardcausation #causation #coarsegraining #emergence
Benjamin Han · @BenjaminHan
395 followers · 1067 posts · Server sigmoid.social10/end
[4] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/benjaminhan_reasoning-gpt-gpt4-activity-7060428182910373888-JnGQ
[5] Zhijing Jin, Jiarui Liu, Zhiheng Lyu, Spencer Poff, Mrinmaya Sachan, Rada Mihalcea, Mona Diab, and Bernhard Schölkopf. 2023. Can Large Language Models Infer Causation from Correlation? http://arxiv.org/abs/2306.05836
#Paper #NLP #NLProc #CodeGeneration #Causation #CausalReasoning #reasoning #research
#paper #nlp #nlproc #codegeneration #causation #causalreasoning #reasoning #research
Benjamin Han · @BenjaminHan
395 followers · 1066 posts · Server sigmoid.social9/
[2] Antonio Valerio Miceli-Barone, Fazl Barez, Ioannis Konstas, and Shay B. Cohen. 2023. The Larger They Are, the Harder They Fail: Language Models do not Recognize Identifier Swaps in Python. http://arxiv.org/abs/2305.15507
[3] Emre Kıcıman, Robert Ness, Amit Sharma, and Chenhao Tan. 2023. Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causality. http://arxiv.org/abs/2305.00050
#Paper #NLP #NLProc #CodeGeneration #Causation #CausalReasoning #reasoning #research
#paper #nlp #nlproc #codegeneration #causation #causalreasoning #reasoning #research
Benjamin Han · @BenjaminHan
395 followers · 1065 posts · Server sigmoid.social8/
[1] Xiaojuan Tang, Zilong Zheng, Jiaqi Li, Fanxu Meng, Song-Chun Zhu, Yitao Liang, and Muhan Zhang. 2023. Large Language Models are In-Context Semantic Reasoners rather than Symbolic Reasoners. http://arxiv.org/abs/2305.14825
#Paper #NLP #NLProc #CodeGeneration #Causation #CausalReasoning #reasoning #research
#paper #nlp #nlproc #codegeneration #causation #causalreasoning #reasoning #research
Benjamin Han · @BenjaminHan
395 followers · 1065 posts · Server sigmoid.social
7/
The results? Both #GPT4 and #Alpaca perform worse than BART fine-tuned with MNLI, and not much better than the uniform random baseline (screenshot).
#Paper #NLP #NLProc #CodeGeneration #Causation #CausalReasoning #reasoning #research
#gpt4 #alpaca #paper #nlp #nlproc #codegeneration #causation #causalreasoning #reasoning #research
Benjamin Han · @BenjaminHan
395 followers · 1065 posts · Server sigmoid.social
6/
In a more recent work [5], the authors tested LLMs on *pure* #causalInference tasks, where all variables are now symbolic (screenshot 1). They constructed systematically a dataset starting by picking variables, to generating all possible #causalGraphs, to finally mapping all possible statistical #correlations. They then “verbalize” these graphs into problems for LLMs to solve for a given causation hypothesis (screenshot 2).
#causalinference #causalgraphs #correlations #paper #nlp #nlproc #causation #causalreasoning #research