Artificial Intelligence: A step change in climate modeling predictions for climate adaptation https://phys.org/news/2023-09-artificial-intelligence-climate.html
#climatemodels

Tropospheric warming is usually treated as uniform across the tropics. However, in a recent paper, #MPIM_scientists show that the projected upper tropospheric warming in #ClimateModels is not spatially uniform. Using the classical Gill model, they demonstrate that the pattern of tropospheric warming is coupled to circulation and convective heating changes.

Learn about this interesting paper: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.4526

Now sitting in a room with 18 people (12 Nationalities) discussing some of the coolest #ClimatePhysics and state of the art #ClimateModels on the planet.
If this sounds like something you'd like to do, #SMHI the Swedish Met institute are currently recruiting for a senior scientist in a permanent position...

#HCLIM #HCLIM23

The response of #clouds to warming climate comes with a large uncertainity. Are we still missing critical drivers to model clouds? ☁️
In a recent paper, scientists by us, Uni Hamburg and IPSL present the evidence for shallow mesoscale circulations using the #EUREC4A observations. Their interesting finding suggests that the mesoscale circulations, not resolved by #ClimateModels, are integral to determine the low cloud feedback.
📚 Find more here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01215-1

In other news, my new book, Computing the Climate just arrived today!
You can now order your copy from your local bookstore!
#ClimateChange #ClimateModels

‘We’re Changing The Clouds.’ - An Unintended Test Of Geoengineering Is Fueling Record Ocean Warmth
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https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8259-2023 <-- shared paper
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https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn7988 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #pollution #emissions #sulfur #shiptracks #sulfate #particles #shipping #regulations #cargoshipping #model #modeling #climatechange #geoengineering #climatemodels #clouds #cloudformation #humanimpacts #impacts #remotesensing #imagery #AI #machinelearning #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #covid #airquality #maritime #maritimetransport

Misread a post about a study, which got me thinking about a different topic entirely.

How much waste heat is dumped into the oceans and atmosphere from things like power station cooling, refrigeration, and air conditioning? And does this (cumulatively) have an impact on how fast the climate is warming? I assume this is accounted for in modelling, but not my area of research.

Grateful for any pointers to satisfy my idle curiosity.

#Climate #Science #Energy #Ocean #ClimateChange #ClimateModels

Welcome to the #Fediverse to colleagues in @PolarRES -

a #HorizonEurope project developing and running leading edge #RCMs (regional #ClimateModels) of both the #Arctic + #Antarctica...

#PolarRES is also something of a sister project to @OceanIceEU

https://fediscience.org/@PolarRES/110848282411568651

I learnt several things from this article, including that in #California, insurers are banned from using #ClimateModels to estimate risk because it would increase premiums too much 🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️

We need a new #ClimateScience # now. We understand the physics of #climate pretty well (with a few notable exceptions) it's #adaptation we need to work on.
How about #CliSciNewWave? Who's in? #ClimateDiary

🎁
Why people struggle to understand climate risk from The Economist
https://econ.st/3rtIMBz

"UC Riverside-led study examines climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases using a broad set of climate models"

#aerosols #climatechange #climatemodels #climatemodels #anthropogenic
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/994326

Plankton Generate a Cloudy Shield over the Antarctic
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https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/plankton-generate-a-cloudy-shield-over-the-antarctic/ <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1677-2023 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #watervapour #watervapor #nucleus #nucleation #cloud #whitening #climatemodels #cloudformation #clouds #weather #albedo #plankton #phytoplankton #remotesensing #satellite #MODIS #model #modeling #Antarctic #sunlight #climate #reflection #climatechange #warming #radiation #dimethylsulfide #aerosl #particles #marineboundarylayer #MBL
@noaa

@dpcarey1 @NatureMC @pvonhellermannn @kathhayhoe @AlaskaWx @ariadne

Oh, for sure!

For me, the storytelling point isn't about sexing things up (although it can be used for that). It's about finding points of relevance and confluence with those who you want to engage with the material.

To take the point made by @ariadne in the first toot:
"There is a 10% chance, according to #ClimateModels, that we are on course for a total collapse of #Earth's #climate (the #atmosphere - #ocean #ClimateSystem) - 6°C of #GlobalWarming above #PreIndustrial (pre-1750) levels [1]"

So, there's a 90% chance of not destroying everything relating to a temperature differential I'd (personally) find hard to guess if you gave me two objects and asked me to guess the temps of each, against a baseline that I haven't experienced because I wasn't alive then.

[Not picking on the toot or the data, but just using as an illustrative example].

Millions of people play the lottery every week where the odds are worse and, I'd wager, would take a 90% odds-on bet.

It's also really difficult to imagine things on the scale of global collapse. Yes, it's bit and it's scary, but behaviour change literature suggests that smaller, more relatable narratives are more easily processed & acted on than large ones.
(Eg Societial collapse v the death of all your immediate family)
Annoyingly I can't lay my brain on the exact effect term right now - more coffee needed!

To pick up on @pvonhellermannn 's point, the majority of lay people have trouble grasping complex statistics and are easily swayed into action with relatively simple numerical devices. This is why products priced at £19.99 will sell better than those at £20. It's nothing to do with the penny, more to do with the perception of value and the way we process numbers.

Again - PLEASE don't think that I'm having a grumble at the original excellent & in depth post. I am absolutely not. Nor am I denying the truth of the climate crisis we are facing.
I'm simply using these to comment on the wider issue of science communication and the uptake by the public, media etc.

You might remember that the IPCC put out a second dire climate warning report a few years ago. It was written in formal language, and using Hemingwayapp.com, it comes out at Grade 13 . Here's the link: https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/08/1097362

What was interesting is that some of the UK tabloid press picked it up and pre-produced it word for word. Here's the link to the Mirror coverage - https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-doomsday-climate-change-report-24717682
It is written at Grade 11 level.

The UK has an average reading age of 9 years old. That is equivalent to US Grade 4.

The Mirror and other UK tabloids generally write to a lower age range than the broadsheets, because their audience often need that specific approach to meet their needs.

So if a UK tabloid who wants to attract readers and advertisers can't translate the #IPCC report into anything less than Grade 11, I feel that there is a problem here.

And that problem effectively reduces the amount of people who can receive - and act on - the messages being transmitted.

This is why we need people to translate the science into the story, to engage more people with the important messages and to create the conditions for action!

Dr Allison Coffin is doing some great work on science communications. I can't find her here, but if you're interested, this is her LinkedIn profile:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-allison-coffin/

Would you board an aircraft with a 1% chance of crashing (equivalent to a thousand plane crashes a day)?

What about 10% chance of crashing?

Well...
"There is a 10% chance, according to #ClimateModels, that we are on course for a total collapse of #Earth's #climate (the #atmosphere - #ocean #ClimateSystem) - 6°C of #GlobalWarming above #PreIndustrial (pre-1750) levels [1]. Which is what 700 ppm atmospheric #CO2 would bring. "

READ THIS...

https://kolektiva.social/@ariadne/110201769311498091

Star guest at #DMIdk's colloquium today. Danish #Astronaut #AndreasMogensen will spend 6 months on the #ISS where he will be carrying out some experimental observations of #Earthshine on the #Moon in collaboration with my colleague @Hotblack43 to assess #Clouds surface #albedo and to scope a new #Satellite mission to assess #TOA #Radiation in #ClimateModels

To DTU for a meeting with @esaclimate #SeaIce people ..
Talking #ClimateModels #SatelliteData + #DataAssimilation

It's a beautiful #Frost day on the #DTU campus on #Lyngby

#ESACCI

Direct observations of rivers basins are essential for improvement of #Hydrology #ClimateModels
We are excited to participate in the research project #UAWOS. We will use #SatelliteObservations of water level & river discharge to improve #Flood and #Drought prediction

Mineral Dust Aerosol Impacts On Global Climate And Climate Change
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https://phys.org/news/2023-01-atmospheric-masking-greenhouse-gases-effect.html <-- shared article
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00379-5 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #modeling #global #spatialanalysis #atmosphere #dust #duststorm #climatechange #Earth #energybudget #preindustrial #anthropegenic #climatemodels #radiativeforcing #clouds #future #energy #emmision #deposition #sediment #dustmass #loading #nucleation

Quite a lede: LAMOINE - A local girl has become the first person to ever apply for a permit to keep a unicorn in the town of Lamoine.
Five-year-old Brielle Hamor wrote a letter to the town on Jan. 9, formally inquiring as to whether she was allowed to keep a unicorn at her home.
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RT @revkin
After an intense, productive @LeapStc @columbiaclimate meeting on #AI for #climatemodels, it's wonderful to catch up on this @EllsAmerican breaking 🦄…
https://twitter.com/Revkin/status/1615916368959836160

After an intense, productive @LeapStc @columbiaclimate meeting on #AI for #climatemodels, it's wonderful to catch up on this @EllsAmerican breaking 🦄 news from back home in Lamoine, Maine! https://www.ellsworthamerican.com/news/unicorn-permit-sought-in-lamoine/article_ceb465b0-969a-11ed-a665-f38bc68476cc.html #mainelife

Are you interested in supporting climate modelers struggling with their codes and want to be part of the high-performance computing support team?

Check out this opportunity at the German Climate Computing Centre #DKRZ:
https://www.dkrz.de/en/about-en/vacancies/hpcberatung_dkrz01_2023_en

#jobs #job #HPC #programming #ClimateModels