@breadandcircuses #Counterfactual : Imagine Gore’s election had been upheld…

Large degradations observed from #LLMs when tasks are reframed into counterfactuals. Only basic syntax, logic and music chords are decent w/ counterfactuals.

(see also: https://lnkd.in/gje_WkR3 )

Zhaofeng Wu, Linlu Qiu, Alexis Ross, Ekin Akyürek, Boyuan Chen, Bailin Wang, Najoung Kim, Jacob Andreas, and Yoon Kim. 2023. #Reasoning or Reciting? Exploring the Capabilities and Limitations of Language Models Through #Counterfactual Tasks. http://arxiv.org/abs/2307.02477

#paper #NLP #NLProc #GenerativeAI

Adjusting Machine Learning Decisions for Equal Opportunity and Counterfactual Fairness

Yixin Wang, Dhanya Sridhar, David Blei

Action editor: Alexandra Chouldechova.

https://openreview.net/forum?id=P6NcRPb13w

#fairness #counterfactual #discriminatory

Theoretical analysis of #MachineLearning decision making. #Fairness viewed as #SocialWelfare should also take into account the alternative decision (called #counterfactual outcomes). This paper proposes a framework which models two kinds of actors: (1) a "principal" who is the central organisation; (2) a set of "agents" who provides the service under consideration. The social welfare goal is to design reward functions with high utility for the principal.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.14595

Explaining Visual Counterfactual Explainers

Diego Velazquez, Pau Rodriguez, Alexandre Lacoste, Issam H. Laradji, Xavier Roca, Jordi Gonzàlez

https://openreview.net/forum?id=RYeRNwRjNE

#counterfactual #explainability #explanations

New #ReproducibilityCertification:

Explaining Visual Counterfactual Explainers

Diego Velazquez, Pau Rodriguez, Alexandre Lacoste, Issam H. Laradji, Xavier Roca, Jordi Gonzàlez

https://openreview.net/forum?id=RYeRNwRjNE

#counterfactual #explainability #explanations

If the states in the United States of America were separate countries. #111Words #UnitedStatesOfAmerica #BeingAForeigner #Counterfactual #StatesAndCountries https://andrewjshields.blogspot.com/2023/03/if-states-in-united-states-of-america.html

Explaining Visual Counterfactual Explainers

https://openreview.net/forum?id=RYeRNwRjNE

#counterfactual #explainability #explanations

Aging apparently involves an increasing incidence of muttering: "Glad I didn't fall for that $hit" (#counterfactual)...

Waking up every morning without having to worry whether a maniac will blow up your country or not is a luxury -- and I am here for it. (#counterfactual , #democracy)

We’re in a golden age for #fiction books about tool-using animals.

So if you’re feeling sci-fi philosophical, dive into @raynayler’s new The Mountain in the Sea. Or try Devolution by @maxbrooksauthor for suspense & thrills.

And definitely don’t miss Cixin Liu’s Of Ants & Dinosaurs, for an astonishing and highly implausible prehistoric #counterfactual.

Or is it…?

(note: I put bookshop.org links to the books in the next post, if you’re interested. I don’t get paid for them!)

#FensterFreitag photograph of window in the stairwell of the much-missed autonomous space Tacheles in #Berlin. Rescued from demolition by #squatting #artists at the end of the #DDR, evicted 2012 by developers.

This photo was used as the background image on the cover of the third #book in my #counterfactual East Berlin Series.
📸 CC-BY-SA Espen Sundve 2006

#WindowFriday

Amazing collection of 📚 #literature, 📻 #podcasts and 🎧 #music to do with the end of the #GDR / #DDR 1989/90. I'm rather excited that my proto-#utopian East Berlin Series made the #counterfactual list, and am more excited about exploring new (to me) media about the Autumn #Revolution.

Thanks to @AlexanderLeistner who is involved in this project.

Anybody like #SteamPunk ? I’ve just written a novel set in a #CounterFactual jazz-age London…

Hello! I'm looking for more alternate history projects (film, tv, novels, plays, games, etc). Examples: Inglorious Basterds, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood, The Man in the High Castle...

Note: not an alternate version of a fictional world, but actual world events.

I'm particularly interested in counterfactual stories that are emancipatory (so open up possibilities in a freeing way...).

Thank you!

#Writing #Screenwriting #TV #Film #NarrativeDesign #Alternative #Counterfactual

Historians use #counterfactual scenarios to fathom #causality in #contingent historical processes. Such has oftentimes highlighted surprisingly small events as of momentous consequences. "What if Cleopatra had had a smaller nose?" was Pascal's ironic exxaggeration of it. Still, whatever you now percieve to happen with Twitter and Mastodon, aks yourself: What if Musk had managed to wriggle out of his obligation to buy Twitter?

#legal #judgment #cases #courts #counterfactual #counterfactualism #counterfactualhistory #counterfactuallegalhistory

Ok. Let’s start sharing some content. First, here’s an introduction/explainer/tutorial on #causalinference and #counterfactual thinking, using a #bayesian inference with #pymc. It covers how to calculate excess deaths due to Covid-19.
➡️ https://www.pymc.io/projects/examples/en/latest/causal_inference/excess_deaths.html

High time for an #introduction - hello Fediverse!

#Writer of the #CounterFactual #utopian East #Berlin Series ("what if the #BerlinWall didn't fall?") and the frankly depressing Cold Island (how could it not be depressing, it's about people without a British passport and #Brexit (#immigration)).

Despite the above, my most popular books are a #spy #crime series about an anti-hero #DDR #Stasi officer.

#WorkInProgress #wip: #HopePunk #Climate #Fiction #CliFi set in North #England.