#Covid outcomes

I see the medium to long term outcomes splitting into three groups (survivors -- people who died early excepted)

1. Early #COVIDCareless This group is testing how many infections a body can take before breaking down. The number will vary, and it won't be uniform, but I expect 2024-25 will see this group crossing double digit infections, and showing significant death.

1a. Late #COVIDCareless This group abandoned precautions sometime this year or last .. see #1 with a delay of 2-3 years.

2. Infected 1x (or low #s) + #CovidCareful : Still going to suffer long-term immune deficiencies, until underlying persistence is tackled. 10yrs? Some of this group might stumble on to a prophylactic that works.

3. Uninfected + #CovidCareful Very small numbers here, should see lifespans pre-2019 or longer as they are now also not getting sick from flus etc.

Unfortunately group 1/1a are the vast majority of the population.

Thoughts?

#collapse
#CovidIsNotOver
#WearARespirator

@jmcrookston @crowgirl
Ever since OG Omicron, the number of people not infected at least 1x is effectively zero at a population scale. And the uninfected population is shrinking daily as basically most of society has given up.

Reinfections continue unabated and evidence from Japan shows accelerating reinfections on average.

Evidence is accumulating that even a single 'mild' infection will cause long term issues due to immune overstimulation/organ damage.

Has the majority crossed 2x infections? I'd bet yes, if you account for asymptomatic infections.

Effectively everyone outside the #CovidCareful + uninfected -- 100% effectively -- are headed to the 'Finding out' phase.

#CovidIsNotOver
#WearARespirator

Pay attention to Beulah! The hare knows what's happening...

#covidisnotover #maskup #covidcareful #berlinbuyersclub #LongCovid

#Covid worst case scenarios

Are we as a group (#COVIDCareful) soft-pedaling how bad things could get? Certainly I don't see any experts putting their necks out there.

Recently a preprint came out that basically shows everyone infected has chronic T-cell activation years after the infection with very little attenuation with time past the acute phase. There's little difference between those with LongCovid and 'recovered'
[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.07.27.23293177v1.full-text]

Vaccination provides little to no help in this case.
[https://zeroes.ca/@mathew1927/110877523187131204]

If this is caused by persistence (likely IMHO), unless cleared it could continue forever, basically rendering *the vast majority of the population* immune-compromised.

How many years do we have before incidental infections kill the infected?

Meanwhile except for the #CovidCareful, everyone is getting reinfected at a greater frequency (3-4x/yr -- Japanese data: https://nordot.app/1044409895176618680]

All indications are that repeated reinfections makes everything worse.

Do we even have 10yrs left??
#Collapse

#CovidIsNotOver
#COVIDisAirborne
#WearARespirator

h/t @fitterhappierAJ

The Barbie movie is out this weekend so here is a pink plague doctor I made... because, why not?

#covidcareful #covidisnotover #covidcarefultoys #3dprintedmodels #barbie

Masketeers... assemble!

#maskup #covidcareful #3dprintedminiatures #3dprintedmodels #heroforge

"Covid-conscious therapists" listing site!

Includes both people who'll do tele-health appointments and people who take sensible precautions in person.

https://www.covidconscioustherapists.com/

#MentalHealth #therapy #CovidCareful #CovidCautious #CovidConscious

Masketeers- keeping everyone safe with style, panache, masks and scythed wheelchairs (?!)

Made using #heroforge and #3dprinted in resin. Remember, #MaskUp

#covidcareful #covidcarefultoys

Seeking a few more players for a beginner-friendly, any-musical-level, #CovidCareful string orchestra for Nottingham!

If you play, or would LIKE to play,

• violin
• viola
• cello
• bass

& you either want to be covid-careful yourself, or don't mind masking to help others...

then this might be the orchestra for you!

Please boost for reach, esp if you know people in England :-)

https://mooremusic.org.uk/nbfso/

#music #orchestra
#CovidCautious #CovidIsAirborne #masks #Masks4All #LongCovid #disability

I joined here just a few days ago, here is an #introduction

I live near #edinburgh, mid 40s and still very much #covidcareful

My eyes are wide open to the many problems in the world. However, there are people who are far more qualified and articulate in discussing those. I will repost those and limit my own toots to silly distractions that are of no interest to anyone other than myself. This may include things like- #drwho #startrek #lotr #3dprinting #dogs #cats #guinespigs #scifi #fantasy

Useful resource from the Brooklyn Art Book Fair team on running a fully-masked event!

What they did, how they explained it to visitors, etc.

https://fullymaskednotes.carrd.co/

#masks #Masks4All #inclusion #CovidCareful #CovidIsAirborne #CovidIsntOver #events

"...we are not done with Covid, not even close. ...

"I get that people want to move on from the pandemic, but the virus is still out there, people are getting infected, and there’s the possibility of developing long Covid. I’m still wearing masks and following preventive practices as much as possible."

- Akiko Iwasaki, immunology professor at Yale School of Medicine.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/may/27/immunologist-akiko-iwasaki-we-are-not-done-with-covid-not-even-close

#covid #masks #CovidCareful #CovidIsNotOver

#CovidCareful / #CovidCautious crowd, what masks do you use and where do you get them?

"Interested players" list now up to:

17 violins
2 violas
5 cellos
3 basses

That's not actual orchestra numbers, because not all those 27 people could all come on the same day of the week, & not all have instruments yet. But headed in the right direction.

Haven't done any more outreach the last few days due to me being ill, so it's pleasing to see that the word is still getting around :-)

#Nottingham #music #CovidCareful

"Interested players" list now up to:

17 violins
2 violas
5 cellos
3 basses

That's not actual orchestra numbers, because not all those 27 people could all come on the same day of the week, not all have instruments, and one or two might not be able to afford it. But headed in the right direction.

Haven't done any more outreach the last few days due to me being ill, so it's pleasing to see that the word is still getting around :-)

#Nottingham #music #CovidCareful

I'd like to connect with people in the crossover between #bisexual and #CovidCareful, for a constructive thing I'm thinking of doing!

If that's you and you'd like to hear what I'm thinking about, please reply here or message me - thank you :-)

#LGBT #LGBTQ #queer #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne
#CovidCautious

Still gradually making progress!

and still interested in connecting with more musicians & would-be musicians! Never too late to start :-)

Also been thinking more about possible roles for non-musicians who just like the idea of supporting covid-careful events.

#Nottingham #music #CovidCareful #CovidCautious

Spent part of this afternoon walking round QMC*, offering orchestra posters to various departments, on my quest to connect with the people still being covid-careful!

(* For people who aren't familiar: it's one of the two big Nottingham hospitals.)

#Nottingham #music #CovidCareful

RT @keetmuise
Have you noticed how often kids are sick now?

Covid is one of the most contagious virsues in history.

#CovidCareful #CovidAwareness #NotMild  #KeepMasksInHealthCare  #covidisnotover #LongCovid #LongCovidKids

It's occurring to me that if/when the new orchestra has a little concert, that could be a lovely outing for anyone _else_ in the Nottingham area who's being covid-careful!

So I should be looking out for "covid-careful people in general", too, even if they've got no interest in playing. Hmm.

#Nottingham #CovidCareful #CovidCautious