4/

Recalling another study in 2021 on the #AMOC #decline [2]

"AMOC decline during the last decades" may be "not just a fluctuation related to low-frequency #climate #variability or a linear response to increasing #temperatures.

Rather, the presented findings suggest that this decline may be associated with an almost complete loss of stability of the AMOC over the course of the last #century, and that the AMOC could be close to a #CriticalTransition to its weak circulation mode" [2]

3/

The authors of [1] "provided a method to not only determine whether a #CriticalTransition will happen but also an estimate of when it will happen. We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95 % confidence range).

These results are under the #assumption that the #model is approximately correct, and we, of course, cannot rule out that other mechanisms are at play, and thus, the #uncertainty is larger"

New NIOO publication: Timing matters: Sampling frequency for early-warning indicators across food web components in a virtual lake. #criticaltransition #ecosystemmodel #pclake #regimeshift #lake #foodweb