"1.5-degree goal not plausible - Social change more important than physical tipping points

"Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is currently not plausible, as is shown in a new, central study released by Universität Hamburg’s Cluster of Excellence “Climate, Climatic Change, and Society” (#CLICCS). Climate policy, protests, and the Ukraine crisis: the participating researchers systematically assessed to what extent social changes are already underway – while also analyzing certain physical processes frequently discussed as tipping points. Their conclusion: social change is essential to meeting the temperature goals set in Paris. But what has been achieved to date is insufficient. Accordingly, climate adaptation will also have to be approached from a new angle."

"The interdisciplinary team of researchers addressed ten important drivers of social change: “Actually, when it comes to climate protection, some things have now been set in motion. But if you look at the development of social processes in detail, keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees still isn’t plausible,” says CLICCS Speaker Prof. Anita Engels. According to the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, especially consumption patterns and corporate responses are slowing urgently needed climate protection measures. Other key factors like UN climate policy, legislation, climate protests and divestment from the fossil fuels are supporting efforts to meet the climate goals. As the analysis shows, however, this positive dynamic alone won’t suffice to stay within the 1.5-degree limit. “The deep decarbonization required is simply progressing too slowly,” says Engels."

Some conclusions from the Report:
"None of the ten social drivers support deep decarbon- ization by 2050, as in the 2021 Outlook. Seven social drivers (i.e., United Nations climate governance, transnational initiatives, climate-related regulation, climate protests and social move- ments, climate litigation, fossil-fuel divestment, and knowledge production) support decarbonization, but not deep decarbon- ization by 2050. Two social drivers (i.e., corporate responses and consumption patterns) continue to undermine the pathways to decarbonization, let alone deep decarbonization. One driv- er (i.e., media) remains ambivalent insofar as its dynamics are volatile, both supporting and undermining decarbonization."

"In light of these findings, we conclude that reaching worldwide deep #decarbonization by 2050 is currently not plausible, given the observable trajectories of social drivers. The select physical processes of public interest only moderately, if at all, inhibit the plausibility of attaining the Paris Agreement temperature goals, although they can substantially modify the physical boundary conditions for society. Meeting the 1.5°C Paris Agreement tem- perature goal is not plausible, but limiting the global tempera- ture rise to well below 2°C can become plausible if ambition, implementation, and knowledge gaps are closed."

https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/about-cliccs/news/2023-news/2023-01-31-pm-climate-futures-outlook.html

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