The #disinflation of the past few months has made us more confident that #Fed officials are done hiking rates. However, our funds rate forecast for 2024 remains somewhat above market pricing, notes Jan Hatzius @GoldmanSachs

US #disinflation - chart @JohnAuthers https://bloom.bg/2z71FfB

US #commodity #disinflation is still feeding through the CPI basket, chart @TS_Lombard

Oops! #disinflation #Swiss CPI in July: 1.6%Y, -0.1%M, core: +1.7%Y, -0.2%M, import goods prices: -0.6%Y, -1.2%M, chart @StatSchweiz https://tinyurl.com/2weysmfz

US #ECI rose 1.0% in 2Q2023, marking the slowest quarterly pace in 2y; mounting evidence of a sustained #disinflation trend could potentially give #Fed confidence to pause rate hikes in Sept, chart @JPMorganAM

US economy is shifting into #disinflation mode, chart @ReutersBiz https://tinyurl.com/mr4bb4fj

US immaculate #disinflation - How much should we thank #Fed for? The fading of #SupplyChain disruptions contributed equally to lower #inflation - notes @Ludovic_Subran @AllianzGI_view

As #disinflation deepens, however, CBs will find it harder to justify many more policy rate #hikes in the current cycle - not least as the lagged effects of the past year's campaign are still kicking in and the effects from here are now uncertain, chart @ReutersBiz https://tinyurl.com/37ch749v

It's getting harder for #ECB to ignore mounting evidence of #disinflation in #euroarea - #German PPI for June fell again by 0.3%M, chart @TS_Lombard

#euroarea HICP data for June confirm the acceleration in #disinflation momentum. The rapid decline in sequential #food inflation following the fall in #energy costs will soon compound core #goods disinflation, ultimately filtering through to the #service sector, chart @TS_Lombard

UST Secretary Janet Yellen sees #disinflation pressures at work – She also suggested that corporate #profit #margins could play a role, chart @economics https://tinyurl.com/6p2rmraj

#disinflation story; hopes #Fed will deliver a final hike of its 16-month rate rise campaign next week drove Wall Street stocks to their best levels in more than a year last week, chart @ReutersBiz bit.ly/3Dm4Oss

While GS continues to expect a 25bp rate hike to 5.25-5.5% at this month’s meeting, #disinflation in consumer and producer prices in June creates uncertainty on the outlook beyond the summer, chart @GoldmanSachs

FX & #Inflation: An accelerating dollar slide could be a US gift to its allies by helping them catch up with its impressive #disinflation – chart @reutersMikeD https://tinyurl.com/4rfxesyn

Significantly, 2y #inflation expectations embedded in pricing of #TIPS dropped as low as 1.93% - riffing not only on #CPI report, but a slew of other positive #disinflation signals this week, chart @ReutersBiz https://tinyurl.com/yj5aru3s

Both #disinflation and #deflation provide relief from #inflation - #deflation in specific products like #eggs, for which prices had previously spiked up due to an economic shock (an avian flu outbreak last year) and then renormalized, is not uncommon, chart @WhiteHouseCEA bit.ly/46KBv0o

Admittedly, there is a non-trivial risk that #disinflation is deemed insufficiently advanced to deter one further hike in Sept to 5.50%–5.75%. While this would increase the likelihood of recession, CS economists expect #Fed to begin cutting rates early next year.

The #disinflation impulse from #Asia – chart @WSJecon https://shorturl.at/pvyT9

#ECB ‘s ongoing monetary austerity in the face of #German producer price #inflation which is expected to continue the long entrenched #disinflation trends, chart @ReutersBiz https://shorturl.at/gFTWY

#disinflation - Chair Powell and #Fed are focused on 3 #big #inflation components: core #goods, rent and #core #services ex-rent (dubbed the “super core” read), chart Madison Faller @JPMorganAM