@mazzeri well done! I agree, you are being conservative in your estimate. With multiple tipping points of major oceanic-atmospheric systems already crossed by now e.g. #GIS, #WAIS, #Amazon, #AMOC, #CoralReefs, it is clear that "the sky's the limit" in terms of impending climate destruction an human-caused destruction of our planet. Which says nothing about #habitat and #biodiversity loss. Or #ocean #acidification. Or, or, or ... The best guess is that the #AMOC will have completely broken down ca. 2050, quite possibly sooner. We are already in uncharted territory now, so to talk about future uncharted territory ... it beggars belief, especially as so much of this destruction has already been programmed by humans into #Earth systems #EarthSystems ... thoroughly enervating.

New paper in the journal Nature well worth a read. "Safe and just Earth system boundaries" (#Nature, 31. May 2023, Rockström, Gupta, Kin, Lade et al.)

7 out of 8 Earth System Boundaries (ESBs) are already in the unsafe, out-of-bounds zone, and have already crossed the "red line" (see attached figure). The #climate has not yet crossed the red line, but is getting very close, of course.

"#Humanity is well into the #Anthropocene, the proposed new geological epoch where human pressures have put the #Earth system on a trajectory moving rapidly away from the stable #Holocene state of the past 12,000 years, which is the only state of the Earth system we have evidence of being able to support the world as we know it. These rapid changes to the Earth system undermine critical life-support systems with significant societal impacts already felt, and they could lead to triggering tipping points that irreversibly destabilize the Earth system. These changes are mostly driven by social and economic systems run on unsustainable resource extraction and consumption.

Contributions to Earth system change and the consequences of its impacts vary greatly among social groups and countries. Given these interdependencies between inclusive human development and a stable and resilient Earth system an assessment of safe and just boundaries is required that accounts for Earth system resilience and human well-being in an integrated framework."

#GlobalWarming #Climate #ClimateCrisis #Klima #Klimakrise #EarthSystems #Earth #Planet #Ecosystems #Water #Groundwater #PlanetarySystems
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06083-8

Lake drainage due to #permafrost thaw is occurring sooner than anticipated.

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateChange #melting #lake #EarthSystems

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01128-z?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ngeo

RT @IlanKelman
"#PlanetaryBoundaries: A Framework against #Geodynamics?"
https://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/gd/2023/01/25/planetary-boundaries-a-framework-against-geodynamics

Thanks to @EGU_GD @EuroGeosciences @lydia_theo1

#ClimateTwitter #EMGTwitter #DRRTwitter #Sustainability #GlobalGoals #SDG #SDGs #Climate #ClimateChange #EarthSystems #EarthSystemScience #DRR https://twitter.com/EGU_GD/status/1618336154646085633

"#PlanetaryBoundaries: A Framework against #Geodynamics?"
https://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/gd/2023/01/25/planetary-boundaries-a-framework-against-geodynamics

#Sustainability #GlobalGoals #SDG #SDGs #Climate #ClimateChange #EarthSystems #EarthSystemScience #DRR

RT @IlanKelman@twitter.com

"#PlanetaryBoundaries: A Framework against #Geodynamics?"
https://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/gd/2023/01/25/planetary-boundaries-a-framework-against-geodynamics

Thanks to @EGU_GD@twitter.com @EuroGeosciences@twitter.com @lydia_theo1@twitter.com

#ClimateTwitter #EMGTwitter #DRRTwitter #Sustainability #GlobalGoals #SDG #SDGs #Climate #ClimateChange #EarthSystems #EarthSystemScience #DRR https://twitter.com/EGU_GD/status/1618336154646085633

🐦🔗: https://twitter.com/IlanKelman/status/1618557058764374017

Straight talk on collapse acceptance.
What is it?
How does it work?
What are the benefits?
Are we doomers?

Collapse Club host David Baum with guest Jordan Perry.

https://youtu.be/ij0mXfEvGFk

#Collapse
#Doomers
#EarthSystems
#ClimateCrisis
#EcologicalCollapse

If anyone is looking for papers to catch up with for their #NewYearResolution - I post about new Earth Science papers every Friday over on Twitter (https://twitter.com/BialikOr) with the hashtag #WeekendReading if you're looking for some recommendations. Ranges from #geochemistry and #paleoclimate to #oceanography and #EarthSystems.
(I should really start posting them also on Mastodon - check this space on Friday to see if I remembered)