@malwaretech
#UKGeneralElection2024

My estimate of one million votes and forty or so seats assumes that roughly 4% of those voting switch from the #FarRight #ReformParty to the #Conservatives. Using an #OpenSource model from #ElectoralCalculus I ran several simulations for this - a difference of forty seats was the lowest plausible outcome.

There is precedent for #Conservatives to retain their position in the face of a swing to #Labour by squeezing the #FarRight vote - London in 2012.

UK General Election Prediction.
January 2023 “poll of polls” from #ElectoralCalculus 🔗⬇️ 1/2