#PaperOfTheWeek w4 on #EmergentConstraints (EC) applied to #Precipitation.

EC = find two parameters A and B that are correlated; A can be represented by climate models; B cannot but you want to predict its future.

Ferguglia et al. (2023) found that for #precipitation, most EC found for #CMIP5 no longer work for #CMIP6, probably because the model spread is reduced and/or relationship between A and B was not that well understood, a pre-requisite for the method to work.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06634-1