Latest estimate of #fraud & error in #UK gov main #HMRC administered #COVID-19 support schemes: #CoronavirusJobRetentionScheme (#CJRS), #SelfEmploymentIncomeSupportScheme (#SEISS), #EatOutToHelpOut [the virus](#EOHO).

'...the total value of error and fraud is now estimated to be between £3.3 billion and £7.3 billion, with a most likely estimate of £5.0 billion (an error and fraud rate of between 3.3% and 7.4% with a most likely estimate of 5.1%).'

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/measuring-error-and-fraud-in-the-covid-19-schemes/error-and-fraud-in-the-covid-19-schemes-methodology-and-approach-an-update-for-2023

#ToryCorruption

#EOTHO did cause people eating out...figures from #Opentable showed how people flocked to restaurants on Mon-Wed when the discount was available and likely reduced visits on days the subsidy was not available (weekends).

To establish & quantify the link btw #EOTHO & #COVID19 infections I do two exercises: I use a DID design showing that in areas with higher uptake of #EOHO #COVID infections surged differentially one week after the scheme started & declined again a week after the scheme ended.