Speculation: #BorisJohnson's phone contains evidence that #Sunak either knew that (or at the least was alerted to and neglegent about) #EatOutToHelpOut increasing the spread of #Covid

That's why they're fighting to stop it seeing the light of day.

#EOTHO

And yes... Eat-out-to-help-out was being defended. But on what grounds? What was the welfare analysis behind it? Who were the experts consulted? What was their incentive structure? I must admit, I did feel attacked for doing what I think I should as an academic: research. #EOTHO

Bob Pape was a beloved father and foster carer. Did 'eat out to help out' cost him his life? https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/30/bob-pape-was-a-beloved-father-and-foster-carer-did-eat-out-to-help-out-cost-him-his-life

#CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #EOTHO #ToryCriminalsUnfitToGovern #ToryCorruption

So, #EOTHO not only had a big impact on spreading #COVID19 -- at a time when we had no effective treatments and no vaccine protection -- it was heavily subject to #Fraud. It did not help the businesses it was meant to protect.

https://www.civilserviceworld.com/news/article/hmrc-estimates-fraud-in-covid-schemes-at-up-to-64bn

In fact even #ContactTracing data saw a drastic uptick in infections linked to restaurant visits. It is right there in the raw data.

As a result, the second wave came faster & was more severe resulting in a 2nd #lockdown that came earlier & lasted longer and I think was much more harmful for the business that #EOTHO was meant to help.

Not heeding expert advice did kill people. Too date, there has been no thorough investigation.

We need to understand how such policies came into this world.

The estimates suggest between 8-17% of all detected #COVID19 infections were due to the #EOTHO scheme was actively contributing to seeding the 2nd wave across the country (which led to a longer second lockdown hurting restaurants that it meant to help).

To further nail causality I exploited the vagaries of the English weather. August saw 150% more rain than usual. The rain wasnt evenly distributed. Areas where it rained during lunch/ dinner hours on #EOTHO days saw fewer restaurant visits.

#EOTHO did cause people eating out...figures from #Opentable showed how people flocked to restaurants on Mon-Wed when the discount was available and likely reduced visits on days the subsidy was not available (weekends).

To establish & quantify the link btw #EOTHO & #COVID19 infections I do two exercises: I use a DID design showing that in areas with higher uptake of #EOHO #COVID infections surged differentially one week after the scheme started & declined again a week after the scheme ended.

The EOHO scheme was conceived to help the hard-hit restaurant businesses in the UK in the wake of 1st #COVID19 wave. The scheme cut the cost of meals & non-alcoholic drinks by up to 50% across tens of thousands of participating restaurants in the UK from 3 to 31 August 2020.

The subsidy cost £849 million and subsidised 160 million meals.

The paper leverages granular data from #HMRC’s own #EOTHO restaurant finder app together with granular #COVID19 infection data.

Its still a few hours of #FollowFriday. So here is another #introduction through past work. I am a Prof of #Economics at Warwick Uni.

We enter the realm of my #COVID19 work. This was all over the news when it came out Oct 2020. It is part of my research studying unintended consequences of a UK policies.

For context: at the time there was a debate on #FreeSchoolMeals.

"Subsidizing the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’s #EOTHO scheme".

📰 #EconomicJournal https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab074
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