@Popehat A lot of what I learned was that you prefer federal court. A good compliment was to listen to the 538 podcast on the subject.

#FiveThirtyEight

I just discovered that FiveThirtyEight stopped maintaining its sports forecasts back in June. I cared way more about its sports coverage than its political coverage. Now I'm sad. ☹️ #fivethirtyeight #sports

#FiveThirtyEight ranks pollsters for accuracy/bias.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

In the #RealClearPolitics #polling averages, #Trump now leads #DeSantis by 36 percent (56.0 to 19.9), his biggest margin. In the #FiveThirtyEight averages, Trump leads by 31.8 percent. Trump’s RCP lead has more than doubled since March 31.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-builds-huge-lead-in-polls-as-desantis-revs-engines/ar-AA1bmISG

Hillary Clinton Gave Nate Silver A 71.4% Chance He'd Keep His Job. Ouch! https://www.wonkette.com/hillary-clinton-gave-nate-silver-a-71-4-chance-he-d-keep-his-job-ouch

#2016_presidential_race #Fivethirtyeight #Hillary_clinton_versus_donald_trump #Nate_silver_predictions #Nate_silver_predicts #Predictions #Silver #Nate_silver_fired

Disney is shrinking FiveThirtyEight, and Nate Silver (and his models) are leaving #2023_04_25 #nieman_lab #sarah_scire #featured_art #regular_post #fivethirtyeight #nate_silver

>> https://www.niemanlab.org/2023/04/disney-is-shrinking-fivethirtyeight-and-nate-silver-and-his-models-are-leaving/

Now #NateSilver signals he is out, as well, leaving #FiveThirtyEight for the first time since founded it 15 years ago. Its current owner, #Disney, is laying off thousands across the corporation. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/nate-silver-leaves-538-abc-news-disney-layoffs-1235401689/

@icare4america Whoa. He's one of the few #MSM folks I liked (he ran #FiveThirtyEight which, while still biased, is one of the better election trackers IMHO)

The senior management at #FiveThirtyEight is out as part of Disney's latest cuts. This includes #NateSilver, whose contract expires soon, along with the underlying models and data that power the website.

#Disney #ABCNews #Layoffs #Politics #USPol #Data #Polling

FiveThirtyEight has put together a tool to visualize how abortion access could continue to dwindle for Americans as key states pass additional restrictions.

Austin (Travis County), TX is now 543 miles away from its closest provider, located in Sedgwick County, KS. This single facility now serves a region populated by over 1.8 million women ages 15 to 44.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/abortion-driving-distance/

#Abortion #Healthcare #PublicHealth #WomensHealth #USPol #Politics #FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight has put together a tool to visualize how abortion access could continue to dwindle for Americans as key states pass additional restrictions.

Austin (Travis County), TX is now 543 miles away from its closest provider, located in Sedgwick County, KS. This single facility now serves a region populated by over 1.8 million women ages 15 to 44.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/abortion-driving-distance/

#Abortion #Healthcare #PublicHealth #WomensHealth #USPol #Politics #FiveThirtyEight

Dilbert creator, Scott Adams, said something he should not have on a podcast and newspapers around the world stopped carrying his comic. In this video, FiveThirtyEight takes a look at the poll that led Scott Adams to make those problematic comments.

#Dilbert #FiveThirtyEight #ScottAdams #Comics #CancelCulture #WhiteNationalism #Racism

https://youtu.be/tywKs68NUR0

"Economic signals are pointing in different directions, and with every new data release comes a new batch of headlines declaring that our odds of heading into a recession are higher or lower than they were before."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-we-headed-for-a-recession-or-not/

#Economy #Recession #FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight has a new story about how Sean McElwee, the founder of progressive polling firm Data For Progress, was forced out of the think tank in December after several post-midterm scandals. He was frequently betting on elections and issues polled on by the firm and received donations from and regularly advised Sam Bankman-Fried.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-cool-kid-of-progressive-politics-gambled-it-all-away/

FiveThirtyEight found no evidence that McElwee manipulated Data For Progress's polls for financial benefit but his well-documented public history of betting on politics have earned him permanent personal ban from the polling aggregator. Polls from the restructured Data For Progress will remain in the aggregator.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-were-preemptively-banning-a-pollster-and-not-banning-another/

#Polling #Pollster #Poll #DataForProgress #ThinkTank #Progressive #SeanMcElwee #McElwee #Betting #Gambling #SBF #FTX #Corruption #USPol #News #FiveThirtyEight #KaleighRogers #NathanielRakich #MaryRadcliffe

More on the Nikki Haley #presidential bid. The #fivethirtyeight podcast analyses her chances. They see them as very slim, but are divided on whether she could be the future of the #republican party if Biden wins again. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-could-nikki-haley-actually-win-the-gop-nomination/ ping @JenX

This analysis of the polls and the #fivethirtyeight model for the #Midterms2022 is a really interesting look at how even presentation of 'statistical data' is a kind of storytelling.
The debate is over whether media and polls wrongly predicted a 'red wave'.
Nate Silver says here that getting the wrong impression is because social media has made it 'all vibes' but I think the need to frame information in narratives is a far older and more basic tendency. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-our-2022-forecasts-actually-did/

As top #Maryland lawmakers work to protect abortion access in Maryland, we spoke with
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux at FiveThirtyEight about where Maryland is compared to other states:
#WMAR2News
https://wmar2news.com/infocus/nationwide-legal-landscape-for-abortion-in-flux-as-md-lawmakers-seek-to-protect-rights

#mdpolitics #mdga23 #abortion #reproductiverights #FiveThirtyEight #News #LocalNews #Journalism

 “This is an existential threat to FiveThirtyEight. If he refuses to make significant reforms and changes the political elite should move on to other sources to get information about polling.”

Agreed, but they won't change because they're biased for Republicans.

"GEE GOSH MISTER WE CANT HELP IT IF THERE'S 20 NEW OBVIOUSLY PAID FOR REPUBLICAN BIASED POLLS, WE JUST PRESENT ALL TRASH FOR THE AVERAGE!"

#FiveThirtyEight #FascistCheerleaders #polling

https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-and-fivethirtyeight-are-on-abcs-chopping-block

"How do you get more people involved [in politics] when there's no whisky at the polls?" #fivethirtyeight

"Here, seven of our reporters share some of the most important stats of the year, highlighting big political decisions, feelings of the electorate and hints at what’s to come in 2023."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-numbers-that-defined-2022/

#Poverty #Inflation #Abortion #FiveThirtyEight