jrosenberg · @jrosenberg
15 followers · 138 posts · Server mstdn.social
Matt Maison · @mattmaisonre
67 followers · 203 posts · Server mastodon.world

"The jobless unemployment rate is a reliable predictor of recessions, almost always showing a turning point shortly before recessions but not at other times. Its success in predicting recessions is on par with the better-known slope of the yield curve but at a shorter horizon. Hence, it performs better for predicting recessions in the near term."

frbsf.org/economic-research/pu

#economy #recession #unemployment #federalreserve #frbsf

Last updated 2 years ago