In the policy statement, the committee removed the reference to “some additional policy firming may be appropriate” and instead said that they will assess if more policy firming is needed by taking into “account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments”.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/is-this-the-final-hike?sd=pf

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The Fed is likely to still speak of their resolve to keep hiking if necessary but if inflation continues to trend lower, they will be more cautious as the lagged effects of previous hikes may cause a bigger slowdown than necessary in economic activity in the months ahead.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/all-eyes-on-inflation-yet-again?sd=pf

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The rational depositor is withdrawing their money to put in safer places to earn higher interest rates (money market funds and the bigger banks which are less likely to fail). The depositors who are getting out will be unlikely to return…

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/the-banking-crisis-is-not-over?sd=pf

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Is this a sign that the bear market is or has come to an end or is this just the eye of a storm that has been raging since the US Federal Reserve started its series of aggressive interest rate hikes?

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Somehow, the BoJ remains in denial that inflation is persistent and that this is just a temporary phenomenon and they still need to continue printing money to ensure that their inflation target is met.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/when-is-inflation-in-japan-considered?sd=pf

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Has it ever crossed your mind that Google Search will be replaced by Microsoft’s Bing as the preferred search engine for the masses? For years, the dominance of Google was indisputable and competitors could only ever present themselves as a comparable alternative at best.

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Despite the inability of the US stock markets to continue to push higher, cryptocurrencies continue to break to new recent highs. Is the outperformance of the cryptocurrencies a sign that risk sentiment is improving or is it something sector-specific? Or is the stock market just taking a breather before grinding higher again?

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/what-is-going-on?sd=pf

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The US Producer Price Index, which showed that producer prices rose 2.7% Year-on-Year (undershooting expectations of 3% and February print of 4.9%), is another sign that inflation is continuing to drop faster than expected.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/more-signs-of-easing-inflation?sd=pf

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US Inflation continues to slow, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing that prices in March rose 5% year-on-year (vs expectations of 5.2% and February’s rise of 6%). That is good news as this confirms that the previous interest rate hikes are starting to slow inflation as intended.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/inflation-continues-to-slow?sd=pf

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Up till recently, the US Federal Reserve officials have been consistently talking about the need for more interest rate hikes to drive inflation lower towards its 2% target. However, since the failure of several US banks, we are starting to see a change of tone among several Fed officials.

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We have seen bank failures as the lagged impact of previous interest rate hikes are coming to the fore. As inflation continues to fall, even if the Fed doesn’t keep increasing nominal interest rates, real interest rates will keep going higher and the restrictive impact on the economy will grow.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/real-interest-rates-are-rising-fast?sd=pf

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For now, slightly weaker than expected economic data could be good for the market because it would mean that the US Federal Reserve may not have to continue hiking interest rates aggressively to push inflation lower.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/is-bad-news-good-or-bad-for-markets?sd=pf

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One of the reasons that the US Federal Reserve has been aggressively hiking interest rates was that they believe that the strong jobs market is keeping inflation high. As such, a strong jobs market will give them confidence to keep hiking if necessary.

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Is this something significant for Dogecoin or is Musk just trying to distract the market from the tepid growth of 4% in Tesla deliveries in the first quarter of 2023 when compared to the previous quarter despite a 20% slash in prices in January.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/the-bird-becomes-a-dog?sd=pf

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Clearly, bank failures are unnecessary and not part of the plan. Fed officials who have been relentlessly hawkish before are now more cautious now that we are seeing more cracks in the financial system after a year of aggressive hiking.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/the-cracks-are-showing?sd=pf

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This volatility in the interest rates market is expected to continue as long as investors remain confused about the viability of the banks that are grappling with major losses in their bond and loan portfolios. This fear and uncertainty will also contribute to financial conditions tightening.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/wild-swings-continue?sd=pf

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If we do not see a resurgence in inflation in the weeks ahead, it is likely that the Fed will be pausing its interest rate hikes for now. The stock market was breaking to higher levels till the comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen spooked investors and drove the stock indices to the lows of the day.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/was-it-a-pivot?sd=pf

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What of the interest rate hike? Will the Fed hike 0.25% more or not? Regardless of what they decide to do later today, the cracks are showing in the financial system. The much-vaunted lagged effects and unintended consequences are starting to be felt and seen.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/why-does-nasdaq-feel-like-it-wants?sd=pf

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While it alleviates the risk of a disorderly implosion of a large global bank, it does not give confidence to investors who own stocks of banks that may be perceived as being at risk of failing. As such, the banking sector will continue to be under pressure.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/yet-another-bank-gets-taken-over?sd=pf

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Though many still dismiss this as a passing fad, ChatGPT is changing the world as we know it and will unleash a wave of deflationary pressures that is unprecedented. Many tasks that humans currently do can be easily done by ChatGPT in a fraction of the time that it currently takes.

READ MORE: https://trackrecordtrading.substack.com/p/an-underestimated-deflationary-shock?sd=pf

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