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BellingenNSW · @Bellingen
99 followers · 514 posts · Server mastodon.au

Future of the human climate niche
and
Quantifying the human cost of global warming

Future of the human climate niche
"All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). "
"We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP."
"Global warming will affect ecosystems as well as human health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, and economic growth in many ways."
pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1910

Quantifying the human cost of global warming
"The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’—defined as the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that climate change has already put ~9% of people (>600 million) outside this niche."
"The worst-case scenarios of ~3.6 °C or even ~4.4 °C global warming could put half of the world population outside the historical climate niche, posing an existential risk"
"The ~2.7 °C global warming expected under current policies puts around a third of the world population outside the niche."
nature.com/articles/s41893-023

#adaptationinsitu #climate #mitigation #climatejustice #injustices #ethics #food #crops #livestock #mammals #pests #pathogens #disease #mortality #hightemperatures #hotspots #exposure #fossilfuels #harm #parisagreement #humanclimateniche #niche #home

Last updated 1 year ago
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GregCocks · @GregCocks
261 followers · 350 posts · Server techhub.social
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#gis #spatial #mapping #climatechange #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #global #heating #warming #globalwarming #metrics #demographic #costs #economic #noneconomic #humancost #publichealth #climateniche #climate #model #modeling #mat #ssp #ssp2 #ssp2023 #poverty #povertyrates #impacts #riskassessment #communityimpact #Respect #people #future #pollution #emmisions #co2 #humanhealth #HumanFactors #equality #humanclimateniche #geography #geographicinequality #generationinequality #generational #generations #experience #change #weather #water #watersecurity #globalhealth

Last updated 1 year ago
Original post

GregCocks · @GregCocks
261 followers · 350 posts · Server techhub.social
Open media

#gis #spatial #mapping #climatechange #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #global #heating #warming #globalwarming #metrics #demographic #costs #economic #noneconomic #humancost #publichealth #climateniche #climate #model #modeling #mat #ssp #ssp2 #ssp2023 #poverty #povertyrates #impacts #riskassessment #communityimpact #Respect #people #future #pollution #emmisions #co2 #humanhealth #HumanFactors #equality #humanclimateniche #geography #geographicinequality #generationinequality #generational #generations #experience #change #weather #water #watersecurity #globalhealth

Last updated 1 year ago
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BellingenNSW · @Bellingen
66 followers · 411 posts · Server mastodon.au
Nature - Quantifying the human cost of global warming - Nature Sustainability

Quantifying the human cost of
"The costs of are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’—defined as the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature"...
nature.com/articles/s41893-023

#globalwarming #climatechange #fossilfuels #combustion #unprecedentedheat #survival #justice #inequities #environmentalgovernance #humanclimateniche #home

Last updated 1 year ago
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