In the real world, the null hypothesis is almost never the best default hypothesis.

Best default hypotheses:

1) historical model ("They've scammed the last 5 people...")

2) confession model ("when people tell you who they are, believe them..."

3) Principled model ("The laws of physics suggest...)

4) Control model ("I assume they're related in this specific way because I have to act, but I'll iteratively and transparently update...")

What else? #inferencedon #medicinemastodon #ML #AI