Point of View: Beware ‘persuasive communication devices’ when writing and reading scientific articles
#Intelligence #IntelligenceAnalysis
https://elifesciences.org/articles/88654

Also from the #ODNI Annual Threat Assessment #climatechange #intelligenceanalysis

"More intense and frequent impacts from climate change also threaten to degrade high-income economies, hamper global trade, and strain financial systems. Droughts in 2022 decreased shipping capacity and energy generation in China, Europe, and the United States, and insured losses from
catastrophes have increased 250 percent during the past 30 years."

https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2023-Unclassified-Report.pdf?utm_source=pocket_saves

How well does #ChatGPT (and Youchat) work with #intelligenceanalysis? I ran another test to see how well it might work in gathering information about a person (me). It...didn't go well.

It created a work history made from whole cloth and gave me a family!

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7039610787883048961-pdDK?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

"Analysts need to learn to apply structured reasoning to their intuitive thinking"

Useful read, especially if you are leading a team of analysts.
The paper reminds us that critical thinking is not as innate as we like to believe. It is hard work that requires structured reasoning, the right guidance, and practice until it becomes internalized.

Why read it:

🔸️Differentiates what critical thinking is, what it is not
🔸️Explains why it matters in intel work
🔸️Provides real-life examples of intel failures due to flawed reasoning
🔸️Gives key concepts of critical thinking in a short & comprehensive format

#OSINT #osinttraining #osintflow #intelligenceanalysts #intelligenceanalysis #analysis #criticalthinking #intelligencecommunity

Often in #intelligenceanalysis we talk about #cognitivebias in ways that make us draw conclusions based on too little or flimsy evidence but the opposite can be true when we elevate process so much we refuse to take “a reasonable leap when there is sufficient empirical and philosophical evidence”. See it at work in the field of #animal #cognition

https://www.vice.com/en/article/akewyg/do-animals-dream

"Should we use generative AI to write #intelligenceanalysis?" Fantastic piece by @mgruppo

AI might make *some* tasks easier for #intelligenceanalysts but will likely require increased work in other parts of the process. I suspect it's not the time saver some may think it is.

https://theinteldesk.substack.com/p/should-we-use-generative-ai-to-write

This is an excellent piece. The #homelandSecurity community is slow to identify when old threats are waning and new ones are emerging.

Compare assessments by the #FBI and #DHS on terrorist threats and this year sounds much like a decade ago...'lone actors and small cells', 'no credible threat', etc.

These ARE tough calls but, as we've seen in 9/11 and Jan 6, there's an inability to see real shifts in the environment. #terrorism #intelligenceanalysis

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/us/politics/trump-jan-6-fbi.html

REALLY excited to finally announce that our "Fundamentals of Cyber Investigations and Human Intelligence" class will be part of this year's trainings at #BlackHat Asia! 🎩

@OSINTgeek and I will deliver a 2-day training on conducting in-depth online investigations by combining the disciplines of open-source intelligence ( #OSINT ), social media intelligence ( #SOCMINT ), and human intelligence ( #HUMINT ).

We created this class with the vision to help investigators and intelligence analysts adapt to the ever-evolving complexities of online investigations. We wanted them to develop a good skill set and utilize the competitive advantage those three intelligence disciplines bring to an investigation, when combined. We have been able to do that, through our previous open, and in-house classes.

In the meantime, we started observing an increased interest from threat hunters, threat intelligence teams, security researchers, and other related professionals that came to attend with a different motive. They wanted to understand how threat actors utilize open-source intelligence along with human intelligence in their attack kill chains. They wanted to be able to conduct a more informed analysis, increase the accuracy of their reports, and inform their security strategy.

This year, we are once again offering this class as an open class, in Black Hat Asia 2023!! 🥹🥹

#intelligence #training #cybersecurity #opensourceintelligence #humanintelligence #intelligenceanalysis #threatintelligence #threatintel #socialengineering #cyber #cybercrime @blackhatevents@birdsite.wilde.cloud @blackhatevents@bird.makeup #blackhat2023 #blackhatasia #bhasia #fraudinvestigation #lawenforcementtraining #lawenforcement #threatanalysis #investigations

An example of why it’s useluf to check your assumptions. For decades everyone “knew” turtles didn’t use sounds…until a researcher decided to record them. #intelligenceanalysis #science #cognitivebias

“Embryos appear to chirp together to coordinate hatching and digging up to the surface.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/01/06/turtles-eat-south-america/

While not specifically mentioning #intelligenceAnalysis, I'd argue today they have a lot in common with the secretaries, advisors, and courtiers of the Renaissance & Baroque era. LOTS of good information for anyone who supports senior decision makers, regardless of the field.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/how-to-get-ahead-in-washington-lessons-from-the-renaissance-and-baroque-eras-part-2/

Learning about scenario planning in #intelligenceanalysis. Immediately added this to a sticky note on my desk.

Humans "act on the basis of an agreed-upon reality - which is, in essence, a story. Stories of the past and the present can be based on facts, but a story of the future is just a story...The stories we most commonly tell about the future simply extrapolate from the present. Perhaps the greatest power of scenarios...is that they consciously break this habit."

https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures

Weird indexed stuff. Mistake, possibly. Release to the public lawfully and purposely, I hope. #infosec #intelligenceanalysis

I can't recommend this series of posts by @ABateman highly enough. #Writing tips for #intelligenceAnalysis or anyone who writes of briefs decision makers. #intelligence

https://mastodon.social/@aarondberman/109598611758125223

Amazing news for folks who need to keep up with accounts on the bird site (until they all move over here 😁). Especially important for you #emergencymanagement #intelligenceanalysis #newshounds types

https://mastodon.social/@awilbert/109553409408694575

I wanted to do #intelligenceAnalysis before I ever knew it was a profession so I couldn't resist works "aimed not so much at rulers as at those toiling underneath them, the ink-stained hands scribbling away at the frontlines of power and policy — from the impecunious young secretary to the conniving cardinal or esteemed ambassador." Like, who wouldn't want to do that?!? 🤓

"By Jan. 5, the open source collection office still had not produced any reports or issued any warning on anything it had found, preventing the #counterterrorism analyst and the entire mission center from warning agencies in D.C. of the threats they were seeing online."

Incredibly frustrating read about #intelligenceanalysis leading up to the #jan6 #insurrection #DHS 🧵

https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-an-intel-analyst-tried-to-prevent-the-jan-6-attack-but-dhs-failed-to-act-190922453.html

#extremism #terrorism #domesticterrorism

I&A has about 300 #intelligenceanalysts out of a workforce of about 1000 people

They can't estimate how many finished products are produced per month (I'm not a big fan of quantity estimates as it's easy to put out a lot of junk but...)

Information sharing is important but (IMO) there's a LOT of emphasis on how many people I&A are talking to but not the value of that communication. #DHS #Intelligence #intelligenceanalysis

Watching the House Homeland Security Committee hearing on #DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis.

I've been dubious of the #intelligenceanalysis from I&A as (IMHO) it's been overly timid, constrained by lawyers, subjected to heavy politicization, and is not really respected within the IC.

BUT, it's really the only game in town when it comes to #domesticterrorism (the FBI is primarily investigative focused vs intelligence)

https://homeland.house.gov/activities/hearings/examining-the-operations-of-the-office-of-intelligence-and-analysis

One of my favorite #journalists is @lussenpop Follow her!

The story of why is an interesting one if you do #intelligenceanalysis and have a #socialmedia presence. Let's go back to 2011 (or so)...Fire up the time machine! 🧵

I can't remember if I've done a proper #introduction so here we go...

I've worked #intelligenceanalysis for a little more than 3 decades, in the #military #government and private sector. I've done some #teaching on the topic as well.

I've worked on topics like #crime #terrorism & #extremism and have all sorts of thoughts

I post about those and #science #history #nature #dogs and various miscellanea.