Variational Elliptical Processes

Maria Margareta Bånkestad, Jens Sjölund, Jalil Taghia, Thomas B. Schön

Action editor: Sinead Williamson.

https://openreview.net/forum?id=djN3TaqbdA

#gaussian #variational #likelihood

'A Likelihood Approach to Nonparametric Estimation of a Singular Distribution Using Deep Generative Models', by Minwoo Chae, Dongha Kim, Yongdai Kim, Lizhen Lin.

http://jmlr.org/papers/v24/21-1099.html

#generative #distributions #likelihood

@vortex_egg

Yes, we need to become comfortable with uncertainty in our increasingly complex environment — in fact that should already have be the case, especially for issues that are complex enough to be 'interesting.'

And even more than being comfortable with uncertainty, we need to get much better at thinking of things in terms of likelihood and probability — even getting clear on the difference between these two terms.

So becoming comfortable with Bayesian thinking will equip us to more effectively deal with both uncertainty, and reasoning, as we try to make sense of the flood of social media, consumer-marketing, politics, and multiple flavors of bullshit.

And by the way, it also helps with the simpler, more straightforward stuff like new science, technology, and data…

#uncertainty #probability #likelihood # Bayesian #reason #reasoning #ToolsForThinking #complexity #sensemaking

The extended version of #AILA has been accepted by #IEEE #OpenAccess #Journal.

Learn more on how to simplify the #riskassessment process by leveraging #NLP and #MachineLearning

🔗https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10044683

#research #cybersecurity #likelihood #subjectivity #automated #methodology

New preprint from James Boyko and me on an #rstats package for easily getting multivariate likelihood surfaces: dentist. If you have a likelihood function, it can sample a confidence region of ∆lnL 2 (or whatever you set). The advantage is that you can see ridges (even if priors would rein things in). Our background is in macroevolution, where people often ignore confidence entirely, but it should have utility in ecology and other fields.

#confidence #likelihood #bayes

https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.01.10.523430

With all these celebs dying, here's some handy stats on risk of death by age and sex in the UK (as of 2005) so you can gauge how surprising it is.
http://www.bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/dyingage.html

#CelebrityDeaths #Actuarial #Risk #MortalityRisk #PublicHealth #Statistics #Likelihood #Bandolier #Aging

The slides of my latest talk "Risk assessment with AILA" for the 20th Workshop on Security Frameworks are available,
Check out the Works section in my Website 🧐

https://tsumarios.github.io/#works

#cybersecurity #security #infosec #riskassement #likelihood #ML #NLP #research #workshop #wsf2022

The slides of my latest talk "Risk assessment with AILA" for the 20th Workshop on Security Frameworks are available,
Check out the Works section in my Website 🧐

https://tsumarios.github.io/#works

#cybersecurity #security #infosec #riskassement #likelihood #ML #NLP #research #workshop #wsf2022

The research article "#Classification of Tragedies and Comedies in Calderón de la Barca’s Comedias Nuevas", written by @sebastianpado and me, has just been published:
https://revistas.uned.es/index.php/RHD/article/view/34588/
We analyze 112 comedies of the Spanish Golden Age dramatist and explore 4 methods to classify them into tragedies and comedies using #word #embeddings. We also employ the calculation of #log #likelihood #probability, #skipgram and #fasttext to characterize the corpus as well as ...

#Introduction: associate prof in Mathematical Statistics at University of Gothenburg, Sweden.

I am primarily interested in constructing inference methods (mostly #Bayesian), typically using a lot of computer simulations. Many call these methods #likelihood-free or #simulation-based-inference or #ABC.

Also interested in inference for stochastic differential equations, #particle-filters and #sequential-Monte-Carlo.

I am co-organizing a conference for June 2023 https://nordstat2023.org/ #nordstat

Just watched an intro phylogenetics lecture by Paul Lewis (University of Connecticut). Lots to learn from it in terms of trees and likelihood, but also how to teach it! Wow!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1r4z0YJq580

Thank you phyloseminar.org and Paul Lewis!

#phylogenetics #evolution #teaching #likelihood #probability #trees #SubstitutionRate

Our #Semantic #Probabilistic #Layers #SPLs instead always guarantee 100% of the times that predictions satisfy the injected constraints!

They can be readily used in deep nets as they can be trained by #backprop and #maximum #likelihood #estimation.

4/

Hot inflation dims likelihood Fed can achieve 'soft landing' - ABC News #inflation #dims #likelihood #achieve #&#x27soft #landing&#x27 #news #13giugno https://parliamodi.news/article/aHR0cHM6Ly9hYmNuZXdzLmdvLmNvbS9VUy93aXJlU3RvcnkvaG90LWluZmxhdGlvbi1kaW1zLWxpa2VsaWhvb2QtZmVkLWFjaGlldmUtc29mdC1sYW5kaW5nLTg1MzYzMjYx