Asking the big questions on #manifoldmarkets - do human beings have free will? https://manifold.markets/Noit/do-humans-have-free-will?r=Tm9pdA

A #ukpolitics #ManifoldMarkets question for the month: will Nadine Dorries finally actually submit her resignation properly in August? I think yes, convince me otherwise. https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-nadine-dorries-stand-down-befo?r=Tm9pdA

Another #ManifoldMarkets #question on the #fediverse today: will a major musical artist embrace the Fediverse? https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-a-major-musical-artist-embrace?r=Tm9pdA

I’ve been playing #ManifoldMarkets for a few months now, and with my shift to the #fediverse I thought I’d pose a few related questions. First up: Will a major news org embrace the Fediverse? https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-a-major-news-org-embrace-the-f?r=Tm9pdA

Who will win the Premier League 2023-2024? Place your Manifold Market bets here!

https://manifold.markets/ErwinRossen/who-will-win-the-premier-league-202

#PremierLeague #ManifoldMarkets

I have created my first prediction market on #ManifoldMarkets about the share of #solar in Dutch electricity production in 2030. Go ahead and have a bet if you have an opinion on it!

https://manifold.markets/ErwinRossen/will-the-share-of-electricity-produ?r=RXJ3aW5Sb3NzZW4

Anybody playing on a #PredictionMarket or specifically #ManifoldMarkets here? I just created a question about our german gas storage levels: https://manifold.markets/copacetic/will-germanys-gas-storage-in-2023-d?referrer=copacetic

(I also created a similar question on #Metaculus but publication requires a review there and will take a while)

Joke #PredictionMarkets are fun. Below you can bet on whether #Trump will be indicted on #January6th

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-trump-getting-indict

#ManifoldMarkets

I want to learn #Rust

Would anyone be interested in a #Rust binding to #ManifoldMarkets and related services?

I could not resist @agdakx's temptation and created a question about the #Haskell #GHC and whether there will be a GHC2023: https://manifold.markets/JoachimBreitner/will-there-be-a-ghc2023-language-ed on #manifoldmarkets

Lastly, a market about #ads. This one resolves to yes if #Tumblr injects ads into their #ActivityPub exposed feeds

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-tumblr-implementing

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Fediverse #Predictions #advertising

We also have markets for whether you can follow a #Tumblr account from an external #ActivityPub account. I picked #Mastodon for convenience. This seems a little less likely to me, as it takes you away from their ads.

Again, 2023 and 2025

2023: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from

2025: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from-8c2db6d325e1

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Predictions #Fediverse

First up, will they allow you to follow an external #ActivityPub account from #Tumblr? This seems most likely to me, of these. I have created two markets, one for EoY 2023, one for EoY 2025

2023: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter

2025: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter-6da47e524d0f

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Fediverse #Predictions

Alright everybody, #Tumblr has indicated that they want to support #ActivityPub, but I think we are all a bit skeptical about how that might look. This thread is meant to collect #PredictionMarkets about how aspects of this might work out. They are all hosted on #ManifoldMarkets, so you don't need to worry about staking real money if you don't want to

Note that it will probably take a few days for these to settle, depending on activity

Well this makes me feel great about #ManifoldMarkets

Neat article comparing the accuracy of different #forecasting entities on the #midterms

https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison

Summary:
- #Metaculus is closest
- 538 is just behind them
- #ManifoldMarkets is a fair margin below that
- everyone else is significantly worse

Note: one election cycle is a really small sample and you shouldn't draw huge conclusions without more such cycles

It's time for a re-#introduction!

I'm a #MastersStudent in #ComputerScience. In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as
- a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
- a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
- a transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's OverpassQL
- bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #cpython, and more

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Bi, #transfem, and happily dating my enby sweetheart

These are the 6 races #ManifoldMarkets has closest to 50/50:

- AZ Senate (47% R, 53% D): https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-blake-masters-win-the-arizona

- KS Governor (47% D, 53% R): https://manifold.markets/SG/will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-kansas

- WI Governor (47% D, 53% R): https://manifold.markets/SG/will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-wiscon

- PA Senate (moving a lot, but around 58% R): https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-dr-oz-be-elected-to-the-us-sen

- GA Senate (35-45% D, 55-65% R): https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-3d2432ba6d79

- NH Senate (70% D, 30% R): https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-23194a72f1b7

Follow the midterms on #ManifoldMarkets

https://manifold.markets/midterms

@lachlan
#ManifoldMarkets has odds on this. Currently ~20% that Twitter basically goes under faster than Tumblr did

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-twitter-beat-tumblr-at-97-deva