TIL prediction markets
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket

I've looked at a few platforms today and it's fascinating how many statements (markets) are about AI developments at the moment.

#predictionmarkets #manifold #polymarket #metaculus #predictions #forecasting

#metaculus is asking the important questions: “will a #StarTrek and #StarWars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060” – considering industry consolidation, copyright duration, AI capabilities, and monetization pressure, I’m at 61% for yes #predictions #predictionMarkets https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011/star-trek-and-star-wars-crossover-before-2060/

"Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years"

https://metaculus-public.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/OWID%2Breport.pdf

#forecasting #metaculus

#metaculus now has an official API. I should build something with it. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15141/officially-launching-the-metaculus-api/

I haven’t written a #metaculus question in a while (it takes some thinking to put together good resolution criteria), but I’d love to see predictions about AI art-related copyright settlement amounts in the coming years

Anybody playing on a #PredictionMarket or specifically #ManifoldMarkets here? I just created a question about our german gas storage levels: https://manifold.markets/copacetic/will-germanys-gas-storage-in-2023-d?referrer=copacetic

(I also created a similar question on #Metaculus but publication requires a review there and will take a while)

Metaculus has a series of free webinars each day this week on forecasting. Most talks begin at 4:00 PM UTC (11:00AM ET) https://metaculus.notion.site/Metaculus-Talks-6ce238dd4b5746a2a5e0011224df2820
#forecasting #webinar #Metaculus

Neat article comparing the accuracy of different #forecasting entities on the #midterms

https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison

Summary:
- #Metaculus is closest
- 538 is just behind them
- #ManifoldMarkets is a fair margin below that
- everyone else is significantly worse

Note: one election cycle is a really small sample and you shouldn't draw huge conclusions without more such cycles

Oh hey my first #metaculus question just got posted!

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13499/6-hour-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/

If you want to try your hand at #predicting whether a #twitteroutage happens

@22

> I like VS Code. But I wish there was an easy place to log this bet, like #Metaculus or #GoodJudgementProject, superforecaster style. I’d bet long odds today that VS Code will be replaced in Lindy-time.

I haven't encountered that exact usage of "lindy-time" before – are you saying that you believe vscode's future lifespan is lower than its past lifespan? I.e., that it'll be essentially dead in ~5 years?

I *don't* like vscode but would take the other side of that bet

@22

> I like VS Code. But I wish there was an easy place to log this bet, like #Metaculus or #GoodJudgementProject, superforecaster style. I’d bet long odds today that VS Code will be replaced in Lindy-time.

I haven't encountered that exact usage of "lindy-time" before – are you saying that you believe vscode's future lifespan is lower than its past lifespan? I.e., that it'll be essentially dead in ~5 years?

I *don't* like vscode but would take the other side of that bet

If you want to practice making accurate predictions, I recommend Metaculus! It's a website that allows you to make predictions, with uncertainty ranges, on questions about the future. You can also propose new questions.
https://www.metaculus.com/

#predictions #forecasting #metaculus #rationality