Daniel Fischer · @cosmos4u
1346 followers · 2249 posts · Server scicomm.xyz

Newly-announced is a large (H = 19.8 <=> 290~650 m for A = 0.05~0.25) Apollo asteroid with a small E-: groups.io/g/mpml/message/38654 - Sentry shows it second (just after Bennu) on its risk list, with a small impact probability of 1/560'000 (Palermo -2.08, Torino 0) in 2028, and various other potential impacts at later dates with smaller probabilities (1/several millions). Hopefully further observations of this asteroid can be obtained, even if unfortunately it is very faint.

#moid #2023gq2 #asteroid

Last updated 2 years ago

TildalWave :toot: · @tildalwave
72 followers · 1351 posts · Server infosec.exchange

, a event-sized Athen group (Earth-crossing) 's (Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance) updated to 0.00050503 AU (75,551 km or 46,945 mi or ~20% Lunar Distance). That puts its probability at 1:560, increase to earlier estimates of around 1:600, but with decrease in range and range rate (radial velocity) probability. Observations made more difficult by waxing Moon. Possible impact time is now 14 February 2046 at 21:36 UTC. 3-Sigma uncertainty region is still enormous ±1.3Mkm (±808kmi or 33.7 LD).

TL;DR We'll keep an eye on it but I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batc

#2023dw #Tunguska #asteroid #moid #impact

Last updated 2 years ago