@agmcleod The analysis from @erictopol is IMO spot on. I really appreciate him posting here.

My thoughts on the #nextWave risk equation:

The "strong" vs "mild" variant narrative is a (deliberate) unfactual red herring & the wrong way to think about the problem.

Its not about the "strength" of the #sarscov2 variant. Its about how the viral attack threat is positioned relative to the defensive mitigations & infection event outcomes.

What's the risk profile from the XBB subvariant EG.5.1 ("Eris")?

On the attack plus side:
- EG.5.1 is more immune protection evasive (yet again) due to mutation
- EG.5.1 continues #SARS2 relentless climb up the #ACE2 binding affinity slope due to mutation
- transmission is a free fire zone, continuing the massive mutational hill-climbing opportunity for #SARS2 with no end in sight

On the defensive minus side:
- Omicron (re-)infection protection is lower than original/Delta
- vax antibody infection protection rolls off by 6 months (arguably 3-4 months)
- Vax boosters have been trailing variant evolution instead of matching
- next booster appears delayed, reason unknown
- Population uptake on boosters is decreasing
- Population non-vax mitigations are essentially zero
- the minimizer disinfo "its just a cold/flu" has solid mainstream traction

On the event effects side:
- #COVID19 acute infection effect is ludicrously probabilistic, with a wide variability of impact as a result
- outcome events post-acute infection appear significant even with "mild" symptoms
- reinfection compounds acute & long term risk
- #LongCovid long term events continue as a notable outcome for each reinfection round

It's an iterative compounding crap shoot where you will land for any given infection wave.

So the attack side is improving, the defensive side is weakening & the event effects seems to be holding.

The vax & relax single point of mitigation is continuing its erosion as a result.

And the wave momentum is rebuilding...

Eris is trending up as dominant variant across the globe.

UK & US already see an uptick in hospitalization signalling a new wave is starting. Eris is trending up.

Ontario tends to follow UK with a 4-6 week delay. Eris proportion is currently increasing.

Looking forward to the IBM #NextWave #Quantum in the UK conference next week.

Anyone else coming along?

https://www.ibm.com/events/reg/flow/ibm/ib1667mb/landing/page/landing

#nowspinning
#富樫雅彦
#masahikotogashi
#山下洋輔
#yosukeyamashita
#togashiyamashitaduo
#兆
#kizashi
#nextwave
#nipponphonogram
#vinylrecords
#12inchvinyl
#sl1200mk3d
#shurem447
#100sounds
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#oyaide
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#合研ラボ
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https://www.instagram.com/p/CnWYf3WPBax/?igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY=

Time to wear a mask indoors again:
Travellers from China who test positive in UK for Covid will not need to isolate

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/03/travellers-from-china-who-test-positive-in-uk-for-covid-will-not-need-to-isolate

#covid #nextwave

mastown community - the server was upgraded last night. You should see much more stability, at least until the next wave! Thank you for your patience, I know all instances had issues the past few days, and the volunteers were busy managing and upgrading.

If you experience any issues, please @ me! Also - please follow the hashtag mastown for updates on our platform (maintenance periods, new features, upgrades, etc).

#mastown #mastoadmin #upgrade #instance #server #admin #nextwave #avoidbigtech