@duarte_vasco

What does one do at a #NoEstimates workshop?

Trainer: Ok, let’s practice not giving estimates. John, you are first.

John: …

Trainer: perfect. Sarah, you are next.

Sarah: …

"The accuracy of the forecasts has meant that when delivery dates aren't soon enough for a client, no one questions the accuracy of the forecasts. Instead, we get creative in ways to deliver sooner."

https://www.industriallogic.com/blog/reckoning-with-reality-with-probabilistic-forecasting/ #noestimates #noguessing #justmath

@miczki I love this talk. So many great moments. Makes it very clear that the #NoEstimates movement is a healthy and wise response to a failed ideology of management. There aren’t a lot of industry developments in the last 20 years that have enhanced rather than retreated from good #agile principles and practices, but this is one of them.

bit.ly/44zXwgV
I am coming to you to stir up discussion regarding quite a touchy subject for clients and contractors - estimates! How many of you were involved in an #agile project in which estimates were on point and after 3 months of introduction to the project and team forming you achieved over 80% correctness hit rate on estimations?

If my question starts to resonate with you somehow: and share some of your experiences on this matter.
I invite you to listen to Allen Holub and his lecture on #NoEstimates

Holub's presentation critiques traditional estimation practices in software development, particularly within Agile methodologies. He advocates for a shift in focus from time-based estimates to value-based projections and a redefinition of management roles to support this approach.

Implementing value-based projections in an Agile development process involves a shift in focus from how long tasks will take to complete to what value they will deliver to the customer.

The goal of value-based projections is not to create perfect estimates but to guide your team in delivering the most value to your customers in the shortest amount of time. It's about making informed decisions on what to work on next based on the value it will deliver, rather than just how long it will take to complete.

@tagesschau #noestimates

"The purpose of positioning is to make prediction unnecessary."

https://fs.blog/brain-food/june25-2023/ #agile #noestimates

but if we work 60 hours in the office and subtract the commute and add in for the sun setting later in the day and multiply by the number of holiday days.... then yep, the points still don't matter #noestimates

Bei Reiseportalen soll man das Alter der Kinder bei der Rückreise angeben. So als hätte man es selber in der Hand, zurückzukommen. #KeepFingersCrossed #NoEstimates

New blog post "Fish Story Points"

https://deadprogrammersociety.com/2023/05/fish-story-points.html

#agile #noestimates #kanban

"No one cares about estimates when the food is arriving **constantly in a timely manner**. That’s because when you see things moving, you can create your own forecast for how smoothly things are moving."

https://craftingtechteams.substack.com/p/to-stop-estimating-your-team-has

#NoEstimates

@achris Uh, you have heard of #NoEstimates I hope? There's a big problem with what @mfowler calls "semantic diffusion" in terms of what "agile" means. But more than the estimates thing, I'm a bit more interested in the bit about whether requirements should change every two weeks. That gets more at the heart of what we should be debating (and I think I'd argue that requirements do change whether you want them to or not, but it is a big topic)

THE key thing I’ve learned from more than a decade on Twitter and now Mastodon: often what tells me the most about the validity of a controversial stance isn’t WHAT’s being argued, but HOW folks are arguing it.

E.g. constant absolutism, poor (or no) evidence, open contempt for differing viewpoints.
#NoEstimates? #MobProgramming?

"The #NoEstimates principle in use here is: the future will look like the past unless something happens. And should something happen, we will know it immediately and act on it"

https://softwaredevelopmenttoday.com/2021/08/noestimates-for-the-perplexed-a-simple-principle-that-makes-estimations-obsolete/

@nikoheikkila No, I don’t mean other teams. I mean stories that (per the repeated #NoEstimates universal claim) are actually independent of one another, and can thus be delivered standalone AND provide user value. Without that basic characteristic, which I also believe is extremely rare (in most domains) for sliced stories of ~2 days work, you really *are* just essentially doing task decomposition and progress signaling.

And you’ll still get asked, when y’all gonna be DONE?

I now believe there are two types of organisations : those who struggle with estimates - and those who don't do estimations ;)

#noestimates

Prototype almost everything.

Then, pick as few things as possible to integrate.

Repeat cautiously for as long as budget remains at the end of each successful Integration cycle.

Do not pass go.

Do not estimate anything at 0 effort.

Do not estimate, period. #noestimates

#NoEstimates https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/lindner-haushalt-2024-101.html

This is #noestimates distilled.

Break down the user stories to the smallest level where they still deliver value and/or facilitate problem solving.

Doing so story points are always exactly 1. Then count the number of stories so you can estimate how much work to include in the next iteration while feeling confident.

Say no to estimates, say yes to estimating.

@surfguard auf den Folien davor geht es u.a. darum wann Schätzungen nicht möglich sind, z.B. wenn man ein bugverseuchtes und schlecht dokumentiertes uraltes Legacy-System übernimmt und darin mit Featureentwicklung anfangen soll. Wichtig bei #NoEstimates ist für mich, dass man es macht weil man nicht schätzen kann, nicht weil man nicht schätzen will.

#NoEstimates workshop in the making.