First lesson in the UK: always appear confident. But this culture of overconfidence has a dark side. Case in point: Martha's life was lost due to overconfident doctors. Change is slow; the issue remains. When will it be fully addressed? #UKCulture #Overconfidence

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-66676770.amp

The Supreme Court Is Infected With the ‘Most Damaging’ Human Bias - It’s not the justices’ politics that are making them unpopular. It’s their overconfidence.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/30/supreme-court-partisanship-unpopular-00113401

#SupremeCourtBias #Overconfidence #JusticesPolitics #UnpopularJudiciary #HumanBias #DamagingInfluence #Politics #News

Persistent #Overconfidence & Biased Memory: Evidence from Managers http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16283&r=lma
"…findings in this paper are consistent with managers being overconfident about their future relative performance in the workplace, despite substantial feedback. The evidence of overly-positive memories of past feedback, & a link between these & overconfident predictions, points to an explanation based on #motivatedBeliefs."
#BoundedRationality #LaborEconomics

How AI can distort human beliefs https://www.ethicalpsychology.com/2023/07/how-ai-can-distort-human-beliefs.html #Misinformation #Overconfidence #Transparency #distortions #Fabrication #Regulation #Education #Beliefs #Errors #AI

Overconfident Boys: The Gender Gap in Mathematics Self-Assessment http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16180&r=lab
"… parents are more likely to overestimate boys' and underestimate girls' mathematics abilities. Gender-biased parental assessments explain a large part of the #genderGap in #mathematics self-assessment, highlighting the importance of the intergenerational transmission of gender #stereotypes."
#overconfidence #bias #LaborEcon #math

@goashem Artikkelissa mainitusta "tietämisen illuusiosta": https://en.shortcogs.com/bias/illusion-of-knowledge.

Tuossa taustaa siitä ja vaarallisesta kuvitelmasta, että oppiminen tapahtuisi jotenkin ohessa tai muita seuraamalla, https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20220812-the-illusion-of-knowledge-that-makes-people-overconfident.

#learning #bias #overconfidence #illusions

It is not bigotry to be certain we are right; but it is bigotry to be unable to imagine how we might possibly have gone wrong.
--#GKChesterton (2006) The Catholic Church and Conversion, “The Obvious Blunders”

#Bigotry #Wrong #History #HistoryRepeats #Humility #OverConfidence #Imagination #Arrogance #Quotes

🔍 In this webinar, you'll learn to easily detect the vulnerabilities that can affect your models, such as data #leakage, non#robustness, #ethical biases, and #overconfidence. Learn how to perform these assessments directly in your #notebook. [2/5]

Overconfidence dictates who gets ‘top jobs’ and men benefit more than women
https://theconversation.com/overconfidence-dictates-who-gets-top-jobs-and-research-shows-men-benefit-more-than-women-200516
#Overconfidence may be a significant factor in the #GenderPayGap and career progression. Men are more likely to be overconfident, and consequently more likely to land top jobs.
…suggest employers should rethink how they recruit and promote people, focus on more frequent performance-based feedback, and to encourage women to apply for promotions sooner

#LaborMarkets #BoundedRationality

Think you could land a #plane in an #emergency? Here’s why you can’t. https://wapo.st/3z1ize4
>Ask pilots and they'll tell you: landing a large passenger jet is much harder than it looks on "#Airplane!" and "Snakes on a Plane."

#flight #flying #Airtravel #overconfidence

#Overconfidence and online #privacy:
(1) Only among people who claimed familiarity with *fictitious* online privacy terms like 'filtibly' did self-reported carefulness on Public #Wifi correlate with their self-reported familiarity.
(2) Among people who performed poorly in an online privacy quiz #game, those asked about their confidence *after* the game were less overconfident than the low performers asked *before* the game. (Mitigating a sort of Dunning-Kruger effect?)

https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2023.2166360

Complete self-confidence is not merely a sin; complete self-confidence is a weakness.
--G K Chesterton

Source: Orthodoxy (1909)
#MondayMotivation #Humility #Overreach #OverConfidence #Entitled #Arrogance #Anxious #MentalHealth #Thoughts #Quotes

China Global Television Network says its global survey shows 88.1% recognized China's achievements in COVID-19 prevention and control over the past three years. You can't make this up. I guess I'm surprised that it's only 88.1%. #triumphalism #overconfidence #propaganda https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-01-26/CGTN-poll-China-s-achievements-in-COVID-19-prevention-recognized-1gTKpAg6W6k/index.html

So I wrote a thing!

The Downfall of the Over Confident

#motorcycle #accident #overconfidence

https://mntle.dmgd.monster/the-downfall-of-the-over-confident/

We can't solve #hunger, #poverty and #homelessness ..but we want to solve "climate change"!

Talk about your big hairy audacious goals!

#climatechange #ambition #overconfidence #priorities

Unexpectedly, as uncertainty and complexity rise, making the outcome less predictable, we find that overconfidence rises too. #ParadoxPairs #Paradox #Overconfidence https://www.paradoxpairs.com/overconfidence-performance/

Large Language Model #Overconfidence

https://info.deeplearning.ai/chatgpt-mania-crypto-fiasco-defunds-ai-safety-alexa-makes-up-stories-vision-model-looks-into-the-future

"If they could moderate their degree of confidence appropriately, they would be less likely to #mislead.

For example, a model like Meta’s Atlas or DeepMind’s RETRO that synthesizes multiple articles into one answer might infer a degree of confidence based on the reputations of the sources it draws from and the agreement among them, and then change its communication style accordingly."

#LLM #authority #AI #ethics

ChatGPT, the AI chatbot that’s taking the internet by storm. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-like responses has generated much buzz. #ChatGPT v #Google Note - The model can give incorrect answers to, say, algebraic problems. And due to the fact that it appears so confident in its super-detailed answers, people can easily be misled into believing those are true... https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-news-technology/what-is-chatgpt-the-ai-taking-the-web-by-storm-8302375/ #lessons here - #AI #chatbot #overconfidence #delivering #misinformation #socialmedia #SoundFamiliar?

“As a team converges on a decision—and especially when the leader tips [their] hand—public doubts about the wisdom of the planned move are gradually suppressed and eventually come to be treated as evidence of flawed loyalty to the team and its leaders. The suppression of doubt contributes to overconfidence in a group where only supporters of the decision have a voice.” Source: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman #quote #overconfidence #decisionmaking

“As a team converges on a decision—and especially when the leader tips [their] hand—public doubts about the wisdom of the planned move are gradually suppressed and eventually come to be treated as evidence of flawed loyalty to the team and its leaders. The suppression of doubt contributes to overconfidence in a group where only supporters of the decision have a voice.” Source: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman #quote #overconfidence #decisionmaking