@JenRubin gives 5 reasons to ignore the #polling around 2024 US elections

"I don’t write about polls. You shouldn’t bother with them, either".

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/10/pollings-unrealistic-coverage/

#Trump #GOP #Biden #Psephology

Marjorie Taylor Greene Suffers Polling Calamity

https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-suffers-polling-calamity-1825432

#MarjorieTaylorGreenePolling #PollingCalamity #Newsweek #MarjorieTaylorGreene #Polling #Calamity #Politics #News

Watch #AllInWithChrisHayes from last night and listen to guest #DavidPlouffe who was Sr Advisor to #PresidentObama and ran his re-election campaign for 2012. You'll feel a lot better about the so called "tie" between #PresidentBiden #TraitorTrump in several polls

You should be able to.get the segment on YouTube.

#Polling #VoteBlue #BidenHarris2024 #NotAsBadAsYouThink

@npilon How do polls change voting behaviour? People jumping to the party that's leading? People jumping to the number two party to try to overtake the leader? People deciding they won't vote because the winner's already determined?

I can believe that polling is influential, but I'm ignorant of research on the topic.

#politics #elections #polling

"A majority of Americans (57%) say they favor more nuclear power plants to generate electricity in the country, up from 43% who said this in 2020.

"Americans are still far more likely to say they favor more solar power (82%) and wind power (75%) than nuclear power. All three energy sources emit no carbon."

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/08/18/growing-share-of-americans-favor-more-nuclear-power/

#Nuclear #RenewableEnergy #Polling #USEnergy

#Polling roundup: #Trump has no realistic path to win a general #election https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/polling-roundup-trump-has-no-realistic-path-to-win-a-general-election

Axios provides a perfect example of why polls are misleading.

#Axios, "36% of Americans approve of Biden's handling of the economy"
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/17/biden-approval-rating-economy-poll

"Share of people who say they approve of Biden's handling of select issues
Economy
- Democrat: 65%
- Republican: 8%
- Overall: 36%

Foreign Policy
- Democrat: 73%
- Republican: 10%
- Overall: 42%"

Poll Problems:
1. "Overall" is misleading since here it means the average between Democrats and Republicans.
2. Why aren't independents in the poll?
3. Can Republicans be trusted to give any credit to Biden since they are delusional with regard to the election outcome?

My polling skepticism in general: Polling can no longer get an accurate cross section of the electorate because people don't answer unknown cell numbers or emails, along with fraud and spam concerns people have.

Poll "Data: AP, NORC"

#Axios #Polling #Politics

Thinking about how, with all the talk of meddling in the #2020 #president #election, nobody has really talked about the massive #polling #discrepancies in #Florida. I think we were all distracted by #Trump's temper tantrum, but if you go look, #Biden had a several point lead in all polling data, then the actual #vote count leaned over 7 points #Republican from the national average, a historically massive deviation in a state known for fraudulent #elections...

Coincidence, or #DeSantis?

According to RCP, Trump vs Biden is a statistical tie. For the popular vote. Which, students of US politics will tell you, is a disaster for Biden since low population rural states that trend toward Trump have a massive electoral college vote advantage. This has nothing to do with the Green Party or Cornel West, this is ALL inherently the weakness of Joe Biden himself with respect to the massively flawed and idiosyncratic US realpolitik.

Biden is losing momentum in the polling. It's not too late for him to step down from the 2024 run and let the Dem Primary have vigorous debates to find the strongest candidate. If Biden persists on running in 2024, and loses to Trump, it's on him (and his DNC handlers), not Cornel West. Biden is, according to the best statistics we have so far, the real spoiler.

#Biden #Trump #GreenParty #CornelWest #ElectoralCollege #polling

Save the Date: Am 15.9. von 13-14 Uhr ist globaler #Klimastreik auf dem Kirchplatz in #Weilheim

Kommt zur Kundgebung. Bringt Familie, Freunde und Bekannte mit und fordert mit uns eine wirkungsvolle Politik, die dem Ausmaß der Klimakrise gerecht wird!!

Weitere Infos unter https://wir-in-weilheim.de

#weilheim
#weilheiminoberbayern #fridaysforfuture
#murnau
#weilheimschongau
#schongau
#peissenberg
#weilheimiobb
#peiting
#polling
#keingradmehr
#garmisch
#Oberland
#peoplenotprofit
#bernried

A large number of #voters in the #Hinds #County, #Mississippi, #election today are are going to their normal #polling #precincts only to find out that their #precinct location was moved just 13 hours before the #polls opened.

Because #voter #disenfranchisement is what #Republicans call "#democracy".

And #SCOTUS lets them get away with it.

(h/t to @ashton)

https://www.mississippifreepress.org/35330/hinds-county-moves-two-polling-places-hours-before-polls-open
#HindsCounty Moves Two Polling Places Hours Before Polls Open

#News #USPol #Elections #GOP

#IAmDB

Last was a fascinating talk by Tal Arbel on public #polling and the politics of objectivity at the University of Chicago. Arbel goes into the history of public polling and how it simultaneously can provide a more rigorous view of society while still falling prey to biases and political goals of its sponsors/organizers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc-ciiptmAo (5/5)

#garbageCollection #untypedLanguages #largeAssets #textProtocols #polling #uncompressedAssets #noMoreSprites #fullCostAbstractions https://t.co/RjvBe92goA

Never sure how much weight to put into the results of a #YouGov poll 🗳️ but it's very funny to see that #JeremyCorbyn is still (?) the most popular politician in the #UnitedKingdom 🇬🇧

The top five are all #Labour 🔴 politicians and the current Prime Minister, #RishiSunak 🔵 sits in sixth place.

#UKpolitics #Politics #Polling #UK

I'm far too mathematically illiterate (if you know what I mean!) to understand the #maths of #polling, but it's still fascinating how the honest people do it, and what the dishonest (like #Trump) do with it
https://journa.host/@pbump/110639216405654425
pbump@journa.host - Data news this week: changes at 538, no changes at Trump HQ.
https://s2.washingtonpost.com/camp-rw/?trackId=596b02b6ade4e24119ac1a18&s=64a031ab9912225d7ca47343&linknum=5&linktot=61&linknum=5&linktot=61

@CanadianPolling This question should be accompanied by another to see if the respondents have any idea what the UNDRIP says.

#UNDRIP
#polling #CanPol #cdnpoli

Trying to get a grip on polls. Where do they get the info?
Do they call people?
~50% of American households don't have a landline.
And if they call mobile numbers, how many, and what sort of people, answer unknown callers?
If they ask people on the street, in what sized cities or towns?
Internet?
I'm thinking, overall, they might not be getting a representative sample.
#Polling #Bias

by #AlexShultz for @KSBW:

"The poll, conducted from June 4 to June 7 among 1,056 California voters, shows that 63% of respondents believe Feinstein should step aside, compared to 37% who believe she should finish her term through 2024, when she’d be 91 years old. Her approval rating is at just 22%, compared to 48% disapproval and 31% no opinion. The poll has a 2.9% margin of error."

https://www.ksbw.com/article/near-supermajority-of-california-voters-want-sen-dianne-feinstein-to-resign/44189385

#DianneFeinstein #Feinstein #polling #poll #ApprovalRating #California #USSenate #Senate #USPolitics #USPol #politics

According to a recent article within the Washington Post by David Byler the GOP is now dominated by non-religious people 

Is this true?

#politics #religion #society #GOP #polling
https://link.medium.com/oyvqsz4mBAb

New Yorker: What Was Nate Silver’s Data Revolution? https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/what-was-nate-silvers-data-revolution #NewYorker #News/OurColumnists #2020Election #Probability #Statistics #NateSilver #Modelling #Polling