TIL prediction markets
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket

I've looked at a few platforms today and it's fascinating how many statements (markets) are about AI developments at the moment.

#predictionmarkets #manifold #polymarket #metaculus #predictions #forecasting

Started a prediction market on whether the elephant powerup in SMB Wonder is an elephant form for all characters

https://manifold.markets/Muskwalker/super-mario-bros-wonder-will-all-pl

And another on whether Martinet will be in the Wonder Direct

https://manifold.markets/Muskwalker/will-charles-martinet-appear-in-the

#Mario #Manifold #PredictionMarkets #MarioWonder

Missed running the Friday stream because of one of our many internet outages... So ask the internet if I will miss more streams:

https://manifold.markets/Muskwalker/will-i-cancel-any-streams-next-week?r=TXVza3dhbGtlcg

#Manifold #PredictionMarkets

CFTC Kicks Off Review of Kalshi's Congressional Control Prediction Markets - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission began a formal review and public comment pe... - https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/06/24/cftc-kicks-off-review-of-kalshis-congressional-control-prediction-markets/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines #predictionmarkets #regulations #policy #kalshi #news #cftc

CFTC to Review Prediction Market Kalshi’s Contracts to Bet on Control of Congress - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will decide on June 26 whether to start a formal... - https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/06/16/cftc-to-review-prediction-market-kalshis-contracts-to-bet-on-control-of-congress/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines #commodityfuturestradingcommission #predictionmarkets #regulations #polymarket #predictit #betting #policy #news

@thelithole Nope; #PredictionMarkets are more of a competitor to the Nate Silver way of doing things. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq

#metaculus is asking the important questions: “will a #StarTrek and #StarWars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060” – considering industry consolidation, copyright duration, AI capabilities, and monetization pressure, I’m at 61% for yes #predictions #predictionMarkets https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011/star-trek-and-star-wars-crossover-before-2060/

Reverse Engineering the Future: Bitcoin.com Team Members Weigh In on ETHGlobal Tokyo Hackathon - The ETHGlobal Tokyo hackathon drew to a close on Sunday, as builders from around t... - https://news.bitcoin.com/reverse-engineering-the-future-bitcoin-com-team-members-weigh-in-on-ethglobal-tokyo-hackathon/ #predictionmarkets #reverselottery #bitcoin.com #engineers #ethglobal #hackathon #ethereum #coders #scroll #japan #tokyo #news #devs #nfts #web3

Jahresüberblick! Wir sind ja schon im 2. Quartal. Was passiert dieses Jahr noch so alles? Ein Blick in unsere nahe Zukunft. #prediction #predictionmarkets

https://open.substack.com/pub/marktweise/p/deutschland-2023?r=28sbv1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

problem: #predictionMarkets can be a cost-effective, accurate way to predict business outcomes, but in real-world companies the prediction market project gets killed when it calls some exec's "baby" ugly

possible solution: #privateEquity firm that requires the companies it owns to keep the prediction market up? Have the prediction market administrator report directly to the board of directors?

Ich versuche mich nun darin einen wöchentlichen #newsletter über #predictionmarkets zu schreiben. Nun brauche ich Abonnenten und Feedback: https://marktweise.substack.com/p/hallo-welt

Update. I'm pulling in two of my Twitter threads on using #AI or #PredictionMarkets to estimate quality-surrogates (not quality itself). I should have kept them together in one thread, but it's too late now.

https://twitter.com/petersuber/status/1259521012196167681

https://twitter.com/petersuber/status/1196908657717342210

#PredictionMarkets provide an objective insight into potential futures, however decision makers are more inclined to shape the #narrative of their policy.
https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/prediction-market-quoteshtml

“Your crowdsourced real-time risk radar is remarkable, but we will not use it here. The only person who tells my board about unexploded bombs in this bank is me and people who answer directly to me.”

Elon Musk got me a lovely New Years' gift this year: a Twitter outage that won me a bet. 🧵

#predictionmarkets #twitterdown

"Prediction Market FAQ" on Astral Codex Ten https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq

An introduction to #PredictionMarkets and how they work.

"[Q:] What can I do to help promote prediction markets? [A:] If you’re an ordinary person with no special expertise or skills, I think the best thing you can do is create a Manifold Markets account, bet on topics that are interesting to you, and create markets for any interesting topics that don’t have one yet."

Joke #PredictionMarkets are fun. Below you can bet on whether #Trump will be indicted on #January6th

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-trump-getting-indict

#ManifoldMarkets

Lastly, a market about #ads. This one resolves to yes if #Tumblr injects ads into their #ActivityPub exposed feeds

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-tumblr-implementing

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Fediverse #Predictions #advertising

We also have markets for whether you can follow a #Tumblr account from an external #ActivityPub account. I picked #Mastodon for convenience. This seems a little less likely to me, as it takes you away from their ads.

Again, 2023 and 2025

2023: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from

2025: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from-8c2db6d325e1

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Predictions #Fediverse

First up, will they allow you to follow an external #ActivityPub account from #Tumblr? This seems most likely to me, of these. I have created two markets, one for EoY 2023, one for EoY 2025

2023: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter

2025: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter-6da47e524d0f

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Fediverse #Predictions

Alright everybody, #Tumblr has indicated that they want to support #ActivityPub, but I think we are all a bit skeptical about how that might look. This thread is meant to collect #PredictionMarkets about how aspects of this might work out. They are all hosted on #ManifoldMarkets, so you don't need to worry about staking real money if you don't want to

Note that it will probably take a few days for these to settle, depending on activity