Out with Parergon, Guy Geltner, "Ecological Impacts and Environmental Perceptions of Mining in Europe, 1200-1550: Preliminary Notes".

Article here: https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/62/article/905418
AAM here: https://osf.io/preprints/bodoarxiv/rkduw/

#environment #envhist #history #historyofscience #mining #mininghistory #ecology #preindustrial

Cuando hablamos de los límites de +1,5ºC y +2ºC tomamos como referencia la temperatura #preindustrial . Pero la definición de esta última no es un asunto trivial (https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-pre-industrial-climate-and-why-does-it-matter-78601)

Estos días se ha publicado un nuevo artículo y un preprint que tratan de estimar la tª de referencia del periodo 1850-1900 y ambos resultados apuntan a que las base preindustrial ha sido sobreestimada, los que reduce aún más la probabilidad de alcanzar los objetivos de #ParisAgreement

https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.04465

@dpcarey1 @NatureMC @pvonhellermannn @kathhayhoe @AlaskaWx @ariadne

Oh, for sure!

For me, the storytelling point isn't about sexing things up (although it can be used for that). It's about finding points of relevance and confluence with those who you want to engage with the material.

To take the point made by @ariadne in the first toot:
"There is a 10% chance, according to #ClimateModels, that we are on course for a total collapse of #Earth's #climate (the #atmosphere - #ocean #ClimateSystem) - 6°C of #GlobalWarming above #PreIndustrial (pre-1750) levels [1]"

So, there's a 90% chance of not destroying everything relating to a temperature differential I'd (personally) find hard to guess if you gave me two objects and asked me to guess the temps of each, against a baseline that I haven't experienced because I wasn't alive then.

[Not picking on the toot or the data, but just using as an illustrative example].

Millions of people play the lottery every week where the odds are worse and, I'd wager, would take a 90% odds-on bet.

It's also really difficult to imagine things on the scale of global collapse. Yes, it's bit and it's scary, but behaviour change literature suggests that smaller, more relatable narratives are more easily processed & acted on than large ones.
(Eg Societial collapse v the death of all your immediate family)
Annoyingly I can't lay my brain on the exact effect term right now - more coffee needed!

To pick up on @pvonhellermannn 's point, the majority of lay people have trouble grasping complex statistics and are easily swayed into action with relatively simple numerical devices. This is why products priced at £19.99 will sell better than those at £20. It's nothing to do with the penny, more to do with the perception of value and the way we process numbers.

Again - PLEASE don't think that I'm having a grumble at the original excellent & in depth post. I am absolutely not. Nor am I denying the truth of the climate crisis we are facing.
I'm simply using these to comment on the wider issue of science communication and the uptake by the public, media etc.

You might remember that the IPCC put out a second dire climate warning report a few years ago. It was written in formal language, and using Hemingwayapp.com, it comes out at Grade 13 . Here's the link: https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/08/1097362

What was interesting is that some of the UK tabloid press picked it up and pre-produced it word for word. Here's the link to the Mirror coverage - https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-doomsday-climate-change-report-24717682
It is written at Grade 11 level.

The UK has an average reading age of 9 years old. That is equivalent to US Grade 4.

The Mirror and other UK tabloids generally write to a lower age range than the broadsheets, because their audience often need that specific approach to meet their needs.

So if a UK tabloid who wants to attract readers and advertisers can't translate the #IPCC report into anything less than Grade 11, I feel that there is a problem here.

And that problem effectively reduces the amount of people who can receive - and act on - the messages being transmitted.

This is why we need people to translate the science into the story, to engage more people with the important messages and to create the conditions for action!

Dr Allison Coffin is doing some great work on science communications. I can't find her here, but if you're interested, this is her LinkedIn profile:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-allison-coffin/

Would you board an aircraft with a 1% chance of crashing (equivalent to a thousand plane crashes a day)?

What about 10% chance of crashing?

Well...
"There is a 10% chance, according to #ClimateModels, that we are on course for a total collapse of #Earth's #climate (the #atmosphere - #ocean #ClimateSystem) - 6°C of #GlobalWarming above #PreIndustrial (pre-1750) levels [1]. Which is what 700 ppm atmospheric #CO2 would bring. "

READ THIS...

https://kolektiva.social/@ariadne/110201769311498091

#UN #Climate #scientists are running out of ways to #warn us. https://www.vox.com/climate/23648274/climate-change-report-ipcc-ar6-warming-overshoot #ClimateCrisis
What’s become clear is that climate change is no longer a distant, #vague #threat for #FutureGenerations to contend with. It’s a #NearTerm #crisis. The impacts of the #warming we’re already experiencing — 1.1 degrees Celsius of warming above #preindustrial times — are unfolding faster than expected in every region of the world & some of these changes are #irreversible. https://www.vox.com/climate/23648274/climate-change-report-ipcc-ar6-warming-overshoot

During the #LastInterglacialPeriod (Marine Isotope Stage 5e ~129-116ka), the global air temp was +0.5-1.5°C warmer than #preindustrial, but the global sea level was 5-10m higher then today! So where did the water come from? 2/9

Mineral Dust Aerosol Impacts On Global Climate And Climate Change
--
https://phys.org/news/2023-01-atmospheric-masking-greenhouse-gases-effect.html <-- shared article
--
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00379-5 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #modeling #global #spatialanalysis #atmosphere #dust #duststorm #climatechange #Earth #energybudget #preindustrial #anthropegenic #climatemodels #radiativeforcing #clouds #future #energy #emmision #deposition #sediment #dustmass #loading #nucleation